The Mamdani phenomenon A democratic surge or a double-edged sword?

Recently, Democratic Party candidate Zohran Mamdani was elected the 111th mayor of New York City, defeating Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and former governor Andrew Cuomo.

A 34-year-old democratic socialist, Mamdani received over 50% of the vote, becoming the first Muslim mayor of what is effectively the United States’ second capital and the youngest city leader in the past century. His opponents trailed far behind: Cuomo came in second with just over 40% of the vote, while Republican Curtis Sliwa received slightly more than 7% of voters’ support. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who had been running for a second term as an independent candidate, dropped out of the race back in September.

Supporters of Zohran Mamdani openly celebrated his victory. After the news was reported by the Associated Press, jubilant crowds took to the streets of the city in celebration.

Born in Uganda to an Indian family, Mamdani moved with his family to New York at the age of seven and only became a U.S. citizen in 2018. When he launched his mayoral campaign, he was a relatively unknown member of the state legislature. However, his platform—which included freezing rent on publicly owned housing, building more affordable apartments, raising the minimum wage to $30 per hour, eliminating public transit fares, increasing taxes on the city’s wealthiest residents, and much more—along with energetic walks through New York, resonated with thousands of city residents.

Thanks to small donations, tens of thousands of volunteers, savvy social media activity, and calls for change, Mamdani’s campaign gained momentum throughout the spring. The culmination of this surge came with a decisive victory in the Democratic Party’s June primary, where he defeated Andrew Cuomo by nearly 13 points, stunning the city’s political establishment and rallying young people, educated white liberals, Muslims, and voters of immigrant backgrounds around him.

After his defeat in the primaries, Cuomo—who resigned as governor of New York State in 2021 following allegations of sexual harassment by more than a dozen women (which he denies)—decided to remain in the race and launched an independent campaign against Mamdani, seeking a political comeback. However, polls throughout the summer and fall consistently showed Mamdani comfortably ahead of his rivals.

In recent months, candidates frequently debated their achievements and ideas for improving life in New York City. Mamdani accused Cuomo of being dependent on wealthy donors and serving corporate interests, while the former governor countered that Mamdani was too inexperienced to lead a major metropolis. Their debates covered both local and global issues, including crime, policing, housing affordability, public transportation, and the Middle East.

Zohran Mamdani received support from prominent Democratic politicians, including Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, who participated in his campaign rallies. Other notable supporters included House Representative Jerry Nadler and New York State Attorney General Letitia James.

Additionally, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced in September that she would back Mamdani, despite previously having political differences with him. Less than two weeks before the election, U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries followed her lead. There is also information suggesting that former President Barack Obama has offered Mamdani discreet, behind-the-scenes support.

However, the Muslim candidate also faced significant opposition. Opponents circulated flyers depicting him with a darker, thicker, and longer beard than he actually has, and some conservatives labelled him a “jihadist mayoral candidate.” In October, Mamdani condemned Cuomo for laughing along with a conservative radio host who claimed that Mamdani “would rejoice” if there were “another 9/11,” referring to the 2001 terrorist attacks in New York carried out by Islamic extremists. Mamdani called the exchange “disgusting” and “racist.” He also faced criticism from some Democrats, including New York Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand.

Meanwhile, Cuomo received support from former President Bill Clinton, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and billionaire Elon Musk.

According to U.S. observers, Mamdani’s success is part of a broader electoral surge for the Democratic Party. For instance, Mikie Sherrill won her race against a Republican opponent in New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections. California voters approved congressional redistricting maps proposed by Governor Gavin Newsom, which will give the Democratic Party five new seats in Congress. Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger became the first woman governor of Virginia.

On the other hand, Mamdani’s success could prove to be a double-edged sword for the Democrats. Some experts argue that within the Democratic Party there is a demand for change that its formal leaders—such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the “old party guard” that brought Joe Biden to the White House and effectively led the United States behind his back for several years—are unable to fulfil.

Mamdani’s victory represents a triumph for the party’s left wing, a political line championed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, which could lead to internal division and conflict within the Democratic ranks—something the Republicans are likely to exploit.

According to Pavel Koshkin, a senior fellow in the Department of Domestic Political Studies at ISKRAN, “Under these circumstances, Republicans will not miss the opportunity to equate Democrats with left-wing radicals from Antifa, whom the U.S. president has recognised as a source of domestic terrorism. In other words, Mamdani’s victory will mobilise conservatives, giving them incentive and a strong argument to discredit their opponents in upcoming elections…”

“Within the party itself, Mamdani’s success could provoke a split between moderates and the far left,” Koshkin noted. “That is not necessarily good for the Democrats, especially in the run-up to another election season.”

Pavel Dubravsky, head of the Dubravsky Consulting agency, also sees Mamdani’s success as a factor that could harm the Democratic Party’s performance in the midterm elections: “Republicans, and Trump personally, will present him as a clear example of what ‘Democrats want’: to ‘break’ America and turn it into New York. After all, cities like Chicago, New York, or even the state of California are not the same as classic America. They are very ‘blue’ and strongly pro-Democratic, and their residents differ from the average American.”

This tactic helped Donald Trump significantly in the 2024 presidential election, and it is quite possible that the U.S. president will once again successfully play the “red threat” card, an argument that resonates deeply with many Americans.

As for the newly elected mayor himself, The New York Times writes, “Mr. Mamdani cannot solve economic inequality, the problem that fueled his campaign. But he can make progress. He can build more housing. He can expand the availability of child care and good schools. He can improve bus and subway speeds [...] If he can build a more affordable city where New Yorkers feel as safe as they did in the early 2010s, where the subways and buses move more quickly, where both schools and early child care improve and where good-paying jobs are plentiful, he will have a claim on being one of the city’s great mayors.”