Kyiv and two wars Zelenskyy confronts new realities

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently gave an interview to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. The central message was clear and resolute: Ukraine has no intention of giving up Donbas under any circumstances. Zelenskyy stated unequivocally that he will never abandon the region or the Ukrainians living there, highlighting its strategic importance for the country’s defence. He warned that if the Ukrainian army were to withdraw, Russian forces would gain a direct path to the heart of the country. Even potential security guarantees from allies are not seen by Kyiv as a reliable safeguard, as the political situation could change and foreign troops might eventually leave. For this reason, Zelenskyy argues that the country’s security must primarily depend on its own capabilities.

Another important topic came up in the interview — the conflict surrounding Iran. Zelenskyy expressed support for the strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iranian military targets, explaining that Tehran is actively supplying Russia with weapons, primarily drones and missiles. According to him, it is Iranian technology that has enabled Moscow to use drones extensively against Ukrainian cities.

The Ukrainian president’s position is not surprising. He has never hidden his disapproval of Iran, and by showing support for Trump, he may also hope to soften the U.S. stance on pressure toward Kyiv. Furthermore — and perhaps more importantly — Kyiv fears a potential slowdown in Western arms deliveries due to active U.S. involvement in the Middle East and is seeking to ensure the continuity of supplies. Zelenskyy stated bluntly that if the U.S. and its allies become more deeply engaged in the Middle Eastern conflict, Ukraine could face shortages of air defence systems and missiles, as these might be needed by the Americans and their partners in the region.

Interestingly, shortly after the interview was published, Zelenskyy made additional statements that underscore how closely Ukraine’s situation is linked to developments around Iran. In a subsequent interview with Bloomberg, he proposed an unusual diplomatic formula: Kyiv is willing to send its experts on intercepting Iranian drones to Middle Eastern countries if regional leaders can persuade Vladimir Putin to agree to at least a short-term ceasefire in Ukraine. Zelenskyy emphasised that over the years of the war, Ukraine has accumulated unique expertise in countering Shahed-type drones, which Iran is currently deploying against countries in the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

On March 5, reports emerged that the Pentagon and at least one Persian Gulf state are holding talks on the possible purchase of Ukrainian interceptor drones designed to defend against Iranian UAV attacks. The discussions reportedly involve not only aircraft-type drones such as Merops, but also bullet-shaped quadcopters like Sting, which can operate either under direct operator control or autonomously using computer-vision systems. If such an agreement is reached, Kyiv could significantly strengthen its standing in the eyes of Washington and potentially gain additional political leverage. In turn, this might help Ukraine at least partially soften the tough stance that Trump has taken toward Kyiv.

As for the prospect of a short-term ceasefire, it could give Kyiv an opportunity to regroup its forces and perhaps—even if only hypothetically—hold emergency presidential elections. Incidentally, the issue of elections has recently generated some confusion. In the interview with Corriere della Sera, Zelenskyy’s remarks about potential elections were reported in a way that suggested they could take place only after the war had fully ended, rather than during a temporary ceasefire.

However, the office of the Ukrainian president later clarified that Zelenskyy’s full response had been different. “The real question is when we will be able to hold elections. They will definitely take place after the war ends, not during a temporary truce. I am not at all sure that I will run. I will see what Ukrainians want.” According to the presidential office, this statement did not signal any change in Zelenskyy’s position on elections, despite the interpretation that appeared in some media reports.

In any case, it is often said that nothing is more permanent than temporary. By offering assistance to the United States’ Middle Eastern partners, Kyiv appears to be attempting—through Washington—to diplomatically constrain Moscow.

For now, however, peace in Ukraine appears unlikely not only because of the lack of viable diplomatic solutions, but also because the positions of the two sides remain fundamentally incompatible. Ukraine insists that it is not prepared to abandon Donbas under any circumstances. Russia, for its part, views control over the region as a key condition for any settlement. As long as these positions remain unchanged, negotiations inevitably return to the same impasse.

There is also another factor that makes peace seem even more distant. Neither side currently feels that it has fully exhausted its capabilities on the battlefield. Ukraine hopes to maintain its defences and gradually improve its position by relying on the support of its allies and the development of its own military technologies, particularly drones. Russia, meanwhile, continues to rely on military pressure and its numerical advantage.

Against this backdrop, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent statements appear less like preparation for a compromise and more like a clear delineation of the boundaries beyond which neither side is currently willing to go.