Scotland renews independence push: can the UK withstand a second blow? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The Scottish Parliament has supported holding a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. “The Scottish Parliament has voted to back calls for a referendum on Scottish independence,” the Scottish government stated.

On May 26, a majority of lawmakers (72 votes to 55) supported Scottish First Minister John Swinney’s appeal to the UK government. The minister is demanding the issuance of an order under Section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998, which would grant the Scottish Parliament the authority to organise a referendum on independence.

Swinney is a supporter of Scottish independence and the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP). On May 19, he was re-elected as First Minister of the region following the SNP’s victory in the local elections. Earlier, he had stated that immediately after the elections, he would propose that lawmakers vote on holding a referendum on independence.

In 2014, Scotland already held a referendum on independence. Following the vote across all 32 regions of the country, around 55 per cent of voters opposed independence, while 45 per cent supported it.

In other words, London once allowed Scotland to hold a referendum on independence. At that time, fortunately for the United Kingdom, slightly more than half of Scots voted against it. However, in recent years, many experts have once again observed a rise in disintegration sentiments within Scottish society.

What awaits England, Wales, and Northern Ireland if a second referendum takes place and Scotland leaves the union: the collapse of the United Kingdom and the emergence of its former constituent parts as new members of the European Union?

Well-known foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Irish political scientist and historian Patrick Walsh notes that this is an extremely complex issue involving many forces pulling in different directions.

“The situation in England plays a crucial role in whether the Scots and the Welsh gravitate toward the United Kingdom or distance themselves from it. The rise of Reform UK and the possibility of a government formed by the party coming to power will affect the position of the Scots.

Reform UK is essentially an English nationalist party, which will push Scotland away from the kingdom. On the other hand, the revival of the Labour Party under a new leader could have the opposite effect. However, it is obvious that the Scots are disappointed with the performance of the Labour government, and this only fuels the movement toward separation,” the historian said.

Northern Ireland is a special case, he continued, but Scotland’s move toward independence will undoubtedly have enormous consequences, because without Scotland, the kingdom will lose a significant part of its weight.

“Northern Ireland is a financial burden on England and does not hold the same appeal for Westminster as Scotland does. In essence, it is already a ‘semi-detached’ microstate. The status quo means preserving the kingdom, and moving away from the original arrangement is always difficult, as the previous referendum in Scotland confirmed.

Nothing has been decided in this struggle yet, and although I still consider Scottish independence more unlikely than likely, the situation could change over the next decade, and then the kingdom may ultimately collapse,” Walsh predicts.

Doctor of Philosophy, political scientist, and professor at Daffodil International University in Dhaka, Greg Simons, in turn, stated that the United Kingdom is already in a process of disintegration and fragmentation.

“In its current form, the United Kingdom resembles a ‘banana monarchy,’ and Scotland is one of the few regions that is economically capable not only of surviving but also of thriving under independence.

A series of unsuccessful governments in London could by now have already shifted the balance of power between supporters and opponents of independence.

Thus, there is a real risk that this time, independence supporters may tip the scales in their favour.

The 2014 vote was marked by a massive propaganda campaign against leaving the kingdom, conducted by interested parties, which may not work this time.

If Scotland gains independence, it will likely attempt to join the EU. Although at this stage, that would be like jumping from the frying pan into the fire,” Simons argues.