Between words and borders Yerevan rushes, Ankara holds firm

Following the historic Washington meeting, the Armenia–Türkiye agenda has also gained momentum. This is indicated, in particular, by the optimistic statements recently made by representatives of the Armenian leadership on various platforms, as well as by visits of Turkish officials to Yerevan.

This week, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan delivered messages full of hope on this topic twice. During the “Leadership at the Crossroads” discussion at the 8th Paris Peace Forum, he stated, in particular:

"We have a very positive dialogue with Türkiye. I think the establishment of diplomatic relations with Türkiye and the opening of the border is only a matter of time, because now there are no significant obstacles. I believe we are reaching a point where we will have full diplomatic relations, open borders, economic, political cooperation, and will be normal neighbors [with Türkiye]. I believe that moment is approaching, is coming — that moment will come soon. But exactly when, I cannot say now."

A similar message was echoed by the Armenian leader at the international forum “Orbeli Forum 2025: Building Peace and Multilateral Cooperation” in Yerevan. Once again emphasising that the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Ankara, the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the opening of the border are only a matter of time, the Prime Minister also highlighted that he had invited President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Yerevan for the European Political Community summit, expressing hope that the invitation would be accepted, and recalling his own visits to Türkiye.

"I have visited Türkiye twice, including on a working visit," Pashinyan said, noting that in recent years he has met fairly often with the Turkish leader.

Indeed, in 2023, Pashinyan attended Erdoğan’s inauguration, and in June 2025, he visited Istanbul at the Turkish president’s invitation. The meeting was described by Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan as a historic event, calling it “the first visit of an Armenian leader to Türkiye at this level.”

Undoubtedly, the opening of the Armenia–Türkiye border could bring substantial economic benefits, as experts have noted. Ahead of Turkish Special Representative for the Normalisation of Armenia–Türkiye Relations Serdar Kılıç’s September visit to Armenia, TEPAV International Research Center Director Murat Ersavcı told TRT World that “if both states open the border gates, this will lead to significant economic revival in the border regions of both countries.”

Indeed, the negotiations between Serdar Kılıç and Ruben Rubinyan focused on increasing air traffic between the two countries by summer 2026, as well as conducting a technical study on the restoration and launch of the Gyumri–Kars railway line and the power transmission line.

Additionally, Armenia and Türkiye agreed to increase the number of flights between the two countries, as announced by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan at the “Orbeli Forum 2025: Building Peace and Multilateral Cooperation.” According to him, flights will operate not only from Türkiye to Yerevan but also to Gyumri.

In the context of Armenia–Türkiye reconciliation, it is also worth noting that the Armenian community in Türkiye has a strong interest in this process. This was recently confirmed by Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, Archbishop Sahak Mashalian. In an interview with journalists who had arrived from Armenia in Istanbul, he expressed the positive attitude of the Armenian community in Türkiye towards Armenian–Turkish normalisation.

"Armenia–Türkiye relations have been so tense over the past 100 years that the very word ‘Armenian’ here was almost equivalent to a curse, just as in Armenia the word ‘Turk’ was. Therefore, if these relations are normalised, it will lift the heaviest burden from our shoulders," Mashalian said.

Nevertheless, despite progress towards opening the border, the Turkish side remains cautiously optimistic. This approach reflects Ankara’s position that normalisation of Türkiye–Armenia relations is possible only after a final peace is established between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This has been a consistent constant in Türkiye’s political approach, confirmed over time: the state border between the two countries has been closed since 1993, and it was Türkiye that initiated the closure.

After the 44-day war, in which Azerbaijan achieved a brilliant victory and liberated its territories from Armenian occupation, Türkiye’s position has remained unchanged: Turkish authorities have repeatedly emphasised that an Armenian–Turkish settlement is possible only if Yerevan meets Baku’s requirements within the framework of a peace agenda. This was confirmed, in particular, by Türkiye’s chief presidential adviser, Çağrı Erhan, at the 7th ADA Political Forum on the topic “Facing the New World Order”, held at Karabakh University.

"Ankara’s actions to normalise relations with Yerevan are linked to Armenia fulfilling Azerbaijan’s conditions for signing a peace treaty," he said.

In this context, it is worth noting that recently Russian media published interesting information reflecting the consistency of Türkiye’s position on the Armenian–Turkish settlement issue.

"At the moment, the discussion is about the normalisation of relations, not the specific opening of the border. This issue will depend on the progress of the process, and there are no concrete timelines yet," Russian media reported, citing a Turkish source.

Summing up the above, the conclusion is clear: without the signing of a final, comprehensive peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, talks of establishing diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan—and even more so the opening of the Armenia–Türkiye border—are clearly premature.