Kazakhstan's path: what will change after elections? Experts share their forecasts with Caliber.Az

Tomorrow, November 20, the presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan. Most observers agree that the victory of the incumbent president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is practically inevitable. In their opinion, 69-year-old Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will not face any real opposition candidates: all five of his rivals are not as well known as the president himself, who previously held the posts of foreign minister, prime minister, and chairman of the Senate in Kazakhstan.

What are the challenges facing Kazakhstan? Should we expect a change in Astana's foreign policy after the elections? Is a breakaway from Russia possible for Kazakhstan? How will relations with the Turkic states, and with the Turkic world, develop? These questions were answered by Kazakhstani experts for Caliber.Az.

According to political analyst Kazbek Beisebayev, President Tokayev says in his speeches that his task is the political modernisation of the country. Tokayev has also said in almost all his speeches that he wants to carry out political reforms. In order to fulfill his promises, he needs to reform the system of government he inherited from Nazarbayev. He also inherited his predecessor's staff. Simply put, he needs to get rid of Nazarbayev's legacy.

"In addition, Kazakhstan has accumulated a lot of problems that have not been solved in all the past years. That is, Kazakhstan in any case needs to do a lot to move forward. Therefore, President Tokayev has only one choice - to carry out reforms and renew the system of management. He has no other choice. Society has the same understanding. President Tokayev needs a mandate of trust from the people for this election. I am certain that he will receive this mandate of trust in these elections. Tokayev is a diplomat himself and under Nazarbayev was in charge of foreign policy. Therefore, there will be no changes in foreign policy," Beisebayev said.

"This year alone, our country was visited by Chinese President Xi Jinping (moreover, it was his first foreign visit after the pandemic), the Pope, and Turkish President Erdogan. Tokayev meets regularly with Russian President Putin.

Xi and Erdogan expressed support for Kazakhstan, which is very important in the current world situation. Regarding cooperation with the Turkic countries, and specifically with Türkiye, as we all see, according to the results of the summit in Samarkand, it received a new impetus, so there is a lot of work in this direction, and President Tokayev will contribute to it," Beisebayev believes.

For his part, political observer Gaziz Abishev does not think there can be any deliberate, personality-dependent course in Kazakhstan to move away from Russia.

"Demographics are changing, the number of Russians and Russian speakers is decreasing, and the number of those for whom Kazakh is the first and often the only language is growing. This, of course, weakens the mental connection and takes Kazakhstan out of the information field of the Russian Federation. Besides, the rhetoric of Russian politicians directed against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Kazakhstan added fuel to the flame. Finally, Russia's foreign policy and the war in Ukraine create difficulties in the international arena, political and economic, putting pressure on communication between Moscow and Astana. Thus, the situation itself has an impact on cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan. Any rational politician will pursue a course that does not deviate much from Tokayev's policy. Its essence is to diversify partners, build a network structure, and ensure the security of Kazakhstan. And the support of the UN and international law", Abishev said.

According to the observer, the Turkic world is a promising project, especially interesting for the passionate segments which are distrustful of Russia and China. But at the current stage, the first issue is building a sustainable partnership in Central Asia, especially with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

"The first thing is to understand that Russia is unlikely to go anywhere - we have over 7,000 km of border with it, we are blocked by it geographically - and therefore Astana will always try to build friendly, pragmatic relations with Moscow, it is inevitable," Abishev concluded.