Musk's demographic alarm: Will Europe survive the population shift? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

European countries, particularly Germany, are currently on the brink of extinction due to low birth rates. This was recently stated by billionaire Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX and Tesla, on his social media platform X. "They’re [Germany and other European countries] in danger of disappearing altogether," he noted. According to Musk, Germany and Europe as a whole are in deep crisis because of low birth rates.

Earlier, the billionaire warned that humanity is facing the threat of a major demographic crisis, which could lead to the disappearance of entire nations. Musk emphasized that the cultures of Italy, France, and Japan are also at risk.

How serious is the threat Musk is referring to? What does he mean when he says that European countries, particularly Germany, are “in danger of disappearing altogether”?

Western experts addressed these questions in an interview for Caliber.Az.

American analyst, publicist, and professor Grigory Ioffe points out that a population decline is inevitable if two parents have fewer than two children.

"It doesn't happen immediately, as for a time both the parents and their grandparents—who were born during periods of higher birth rates—remain alive. This creates what is known as a 'momentum' effect, similar to when a car is speeding up and it's hard to stop right away. But after a while, the replacement of two parents with one child, or 'one and a half children' on average, will inevitably lead to a demographic collapse. To deny this is like denying the law of gravity or that the Earth is spherical," the professor explained.

According to him, in Europe, some regions in the early 1990s still had areas where the average number of children per two parents was greater than two—what demographers refer to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

"This was the case with Albania, and surprisingly, Ireland and Iceland. Today, such exceptions no longer exist, except for the European part of Türkiye. Moreover, in some European countries, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to as low as 1.3 in Italy and 1.2 in Malta. In France, the TFR is 1.78, primarily due to birth rates among Arab and African immigrants. But even 1.78 is still below the so-called replacement level. This replacement level is typically set at 2.1 children per woman on average. Why 2.1 and not 2.0? Because some women, unfortunately, do not live to the end of their childbearing years. Therefore, Musk's prediction that countries with a TFR below 2.1 will face population decline is a mere truism. The only reason it has drawn attention is because it's Elon Musk. He is right to sound the alarm on this issue, but demographers have been raising the same concerns for years," the analyst pointed out.

Yes, he acknowledges, it will take only a short time in historical terms before European countries cease to exist as the custodians of the cultures they once created.

"There will be no more Italians, French, or Spaniards. Instead, the people living there will be natives of regions and countries where birth rates remain high. For example, the average TFR in Arab countries today is 3.14 (the same as the number pi), while in West and Central Africa, it is as high as 4.98. In East and Southern Africa, it stands at 4.35. The replacement of the European population has already begun and will continue at a rapid pace. Unless, of course, a miracle happens and Europeans start having many children again. However, such a reversal of the demographic transition (the historical process of declining birth and death rates) has not been demonstrated anywhere yet," Ioffe concludes.

German political scientist, professor at the Institute for International Politics WeltTrends (Potsdam), Alexander Rahr, stated that he agrees with Musk's analysis.

"By the way, the forecast about the disappearance of 'white Europeans' is not new. The Roman Club has been discussing this for a long time, and there are several serious scientific studies that support Musk's thesis. There are several reasons for the extinction of current Europeans: the changing role of the traditional family in Western societies, materialism, the opening of career opportunities for women, and so on. But the main reason is migration from the Global South, which will gradually alter the very makeup of European populations. The only question is how long the process of replacing current European nations with migrants from other cultures and civilizations will take. Another question is how the newcomers will seize power. According to my calculations, the critical peak will be reached in 2054. I previously published a book, 2054, in which I predicted the Islamization of Europe by that year," Rahr stated.

Analyst, publisher, and editor-in-chief of Neue Zeiten magazine and the YouTube channel Neue Zeiten TV (Germany), Alexander Cherkassky, on the other hand, believes that Musk is greatly exaggerating.

"While there is a trend of declining birth rates, this is happening both in the West and in Russia. Well, if the population decreases, we won't need as many people. A different, more dangerous problem is migration from culturally alien countries. These migrants have a very hard time integrating and pose a significant problem that needs to be addressed," said Cherkassky.