OSCE Minsk Group's fate and Azerbaijan’s perspective on Karabakh

At a recent briefing, Sargis Khandanyan, the head of the Standing Parliamentary Commission on Foreign Relations of the National Assembly of Armenia, delivered a candid assessment: "Under the current conditions, the return of 'Artsakh' residents is unrealistic." This statement reflects a dose of common sense. However, it's important to note that the return is not merely unrealistic "under the current conditions" but entirely so due to the complete absence of what was once known as "Artsakh." All the talk about how "Armenians will definitely return" amounts to little more than empty rhetoric.

It’s quite amusing and strategically beneficial for some to gain political points, but ultimately, it’s entirely ineffective. As long as Azerbaijanis are not permitted to return to Western Azerbaijan, the issue of Armenians returning to Azerbaijan will not even be on the table. Therefore, the matter is closed—permanently—and it’s time to acknowledge that fact.

Unfortunately, Armenia’s political landscape is not only populated by those who are beginning to understand these realities. There are also others, and quite a few at that. I’m not referring to Bagrat Galstanyan but rather to Armen Ashotyan, the Vice Chairman of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), who is currently imprisoned in Nubarashen. Ashotyan has recently made several sweeping statements on various topics. Allow me to quote:

"It’s not too late to develop and implement the concept of a 'State without Territory' in relation to Nagorno-Karabakh," he said. While he admitted that he doesn’t have ready-made solutions, he is fully prepared to contribute to a collective effort to establish a new Artsakh movement. "Unfortunately, isolated initiatives and individual efforts, no matter how patriotic or sincere, won’t resolve this deep-rooted, systemic issue. I believe there is still time to formulate and introduce the concept of a 'State without Territory' for the so-called 'Republic of Artsakh.'"

Regarding Azerbaijan's call to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, Armen Ashotyan claimed that Baku is trying to eliminate the only internationally recognized body handling the Karabakh issue: "The Artsakh question is not resolved, and the existence of the OSCE Minsk Group is an international acknowledgment of this." Ashotyan argues, "The Minsk Group should not be dissolved. Even though it is currently inactive, it remains a vital mechanism for keeping the issue on the international agenda. Sooner or later, the co-chairing countries will resume their discussions."

Let's break it down step by step. Concerning the concept of a "state without territory," we are in complete agreement. If there is no territory, creating a "new movement" won't yield significant results. It will likely result in nothing more than a diversion while Armenia squanders resources that could be better utilized with a bit of rational thought. But, evidently, expectations should be tempered when it comes to certain individuals.

As for the OSCE Minsk Group, it should be dissolved as it is no longer needed, due to the triumph of international law and the absence of any subject to discuss. The Armenian population voluntarily left Azerbaijan, which was confirmed by a UN mission report that visited Karabakh, liberated from separatists, in October 2023. This authoritative organization clearly stated in its report: ““the mission visited the city of Khankendi, where the team met with the local population and interlocutors and saw first-hand the situation regarding health and education facilities.  In parts of the city that the team visited, they saw no damage to civilian public infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and housing, or to cultural and religious structures…The mission did not come across any reports – neither from the local population interviewed nor from the interlocutors - of incidences of violence against civilians following the latest ceasefire…The mission did not observe any destruction of agricultural infrastructure or dead animals from the road.”

The time has come to close this chapter. The co-chair countries might continue their discussions, but it seems they are aware of the situation’s reality. To be entirely candid, the issue has been resolved not by the UN, the OSCE Minsk Group, PACE, or even the co-chair countries, but by the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan.

Experience demonstrates that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces are both the guarantors of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and defenders of international law. Public opinion on this issue is secondary; what truly matters is its impact on us. Since this issue does not directly affect us, we have no intention of focusing on it further. However, Azerbaijan’s authorities—ranging from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Ministry of Defense—will remain vigilant to prevent any attempts to harm us. As Shukshin’s character in The Red Snowball Tree (Kalina Krasnaya) famously said, “From now on, I’ll be punishing strictly." This is precisely our approach.

This statement comes from Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada. In response to inquiries from local media regarding Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan’s remarks on the peace agreement and communications, Hajizada noted: “For the draft agreement to be signed, Armenia must first amend its Constitution, which currently includes territorial claims against our country. Armenia is aware that it has committed to opening communications linking the western regions of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, but it has failed to fulfill these commitments for the past four years.”

But this logical and fair statement has sparked outrage from Tatevik Ayrapetyan, an “expert on Azerbaijani affairs”: “This once again proves that Azerbaijan will not sign any documents. Meanwhile, while the Armenian leadership remains silent about Azerbaijan’s territorial claims and the state policy of referring to our country as ‘Western Azerbaijan,’ Azerbaijan continues to demand changes to the Armenian Constitution, thus directly interfering in Armenia’s internal affairs.”

Tatevik Hayrapetyan is correct in recognizing that the peace agreement is more critical for Armenia than for Azerbaijan, which can manage well without it. As for the “internal affairs of Armenia,” they remain internal only as long as they do not impact Azerbaijani interests. The current state of Armenia's Constitution does affect those interests, and that should not be the case.

This is our position, and we will not act otherwise. We will not, and we do not intend to.