Russia, Ukraine and Armageddon nuclear threat Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

US President Joe Biden has recently said that the risk of nuclear war is now the highest since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 (better known as the Caribbean crisis), as Kremlin officials openly talk about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons after massive failures in Ukraine.

Biden, moreover, noted that he knows Vladimir Putin well enough, and he is by no means "joking when he talks about the use of biological, chemical or tactical nuclear weapons". And all because, according to the American leader, the Russian army in the Ukrainian war is "significantly underperforming".

"We have not faced the prospect of a nuclear catastrophe since the Cuban missile crisis, and the threat from Putin is real," Biden stressed, warning the world that the local use of tactical nuclear weapons could quickly get out of control and lead to a global war. At the same time, he assumes (or hopes?) that it is probably possible to launch a nuclear strike, but "not to end everything with Armageddon".

In any case, according to Biden, US officials are looking for a diplomatic way out. Rather, while in the United States they are trying to understand what this very way out is for Putin, because it is important for him not only to save his own face but also not to lose power in the country, in this case, the Russian Federation.

If you believe Biden, and apparently, this time he is very close to the truth, the risk of nuclear war has increased substantially in recent months. Everyone has already made sure that Putin does not throw words around. And, nevertheless, is the world really on the eve of the first use of nuclear weapons in military operations, as a result of which a global war with the participation of the nuclear potentials of all the powers with such arsenals is likely to break out with a sufficient degree of probability. How right is Biden in his fears?

Well-known foreign experts answer to these more than pertinent questions of Caliber.Az.

Konstantin Eggert, a Russian political analyst and columnist for Deutsche Welle, is somewhat more optimistic about Moscow's intentions and their possible consequences for the world. However, he also believes that it is not worth ruling out the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons. "Although I think he will do it only in two cases: either when the existence of his government is threatened, or when the complete loss of Crimea becomes real," Eggert says. At the same time, he recalls that Putin had never previously engaged in confrontation, fighting with an opponent who was obviously stronger than him. In this sense, the adventure in Ukraine in 2022 is rather an exception, and, apparently, Moscow really underestimated the strength and determination of the Ukrainian leadership, army and people, the expert concludes.

"Therefore, it seems to me that Biden's statements are still more a warning just in case than a conversation about something very real today. The Russian leadership is well aware that the use of nuclear weapons in the theatre of military operations is a huge risk. At the same time, it is obvious that Russia will be completely defenceless in this situation because it simply will not have any allies left at this moment. And in this sense, I am sure that such an act would be almost suicidal for the Russian leadership. But, of course, given all his recent miscalculations, it is impossible to exclude this," Eggert admits.

According to observations of the Doctor of Military and Political Sciences, the Georgian military expert, Vakhtang Maisaya, Putin's threats are nothing more than blackmail, and he used elements of nuclear blackmail.

"Such a theory exists. According to this theory, the Russian president employs nuclear triad elements for this purpose. As you may be aware, he dispatched the strategic nuclear submarine Belgorod to the Arctic and placed it on alert number two, i.e. high alert.

And there was also information that Kyiv was bombed by Tu-95 strategic bombers. In addition, there is a transfer of some self-propelled artillery systems that can attack enemy positions with subtactic nuclear charges," the expert listed the signs of nuclear blackmail in Russia's actions.

"But personally, I think that Moscow will not go further than blackmail. After all, it does not even disavow the moratorium that the Soviet Union signed in 1990. All members of the 'nuclear club' adhere to this moratorium. It concerns the ban on all nuclear tests – ground, underground, underwater, and so on. No one has violated it so far. But Russia, admittedly, manipulates the strategy of nuclear blackmail very skillfully," Maisaya emphasises.

Latvian political analyst, Doctor of Philology, independent journalist, and former employee of the American National Democratic Institute of International Relations (NDI) Alex Grigorievs fully shares Biden's opinion. It is impossible not to agree with the American president that he is convinced that threats and the possibility of using nuclear, biological and chemical weapons should be taken as seriously as possible.

"Let me remind you that the threat of the use of nuclear weapons already constitutes a war crime. In addition, according to the Budapest Memorandum, the United Kingdom and the United States are obliged to stand up for Ukraine if it is threatened by a country possessing nuclear weapons," the expert noted.

Such threats and their execution transfer the Russian aggression against Ukraine to a completely different plane, he believes. After that, Grigorievs warns that it is very difficult to find arguments against recognising Russia as a terrorist state, excluding it from the UN, especially depriving it of the status of a permanent Security Council member and international military action in order to pacify it.

"Russia puts itself outside the law. And all attempts to give Moscow the opportunity to save face, to find a diplomatic solution, except based on the surrender of Russia and the change of power in it, I consider extremely harmful. The Kremlin unequivocally regards them as a sign of weakness. According to journalist Margarita Simonyan, the West stepped back. The Kremlin understands only force," Grigorievs said.

This viewpoint is shared by Major-General of Ukraine's Security Service, Security Service Deputy Chairman from March 2014 to June 2015, and Director of the Agency for Security Sector Reform Viktor Yagun. Unfortunately, he believes that Russia's threats should be taken seriously because it has exhausted all options for putting pressure on Ukraine and the international community to get out of the current situation.

"But we must understand that Moscow chose the time for blackmail unsuccessfully. She missed her time, no one is afraid of her either in Ukraine or in the world, and representatives of the United States, Great Britain and NATO have personally explained everything in great detail about the consequences of a possible rash step.
If we talk separately about Ukraine, then no one and nothing will stop us, even a nuclear strike. We will only go forward to Victory," General Yagun concluded.