Tajik-made Iranian drones could not save Russia in Ukraine For Tajikistan, its borders come first

As the war in Ukraine rages, Russia eyes more military-technical support from its long-term partner Iran. The Russian-Iranian military partnership had grown explicitly since August 2022, when Iran started supplying Russia with indigenously manufactured combat drones and loitering munitions known as “Shaheed”. Although Iran's drone supply to Russia caused outrage in Ukraine and the West, official Tehran did not cease efforts to assist Russia in its unprovoked war against Ukraine.

In September 2022, US officials reported that a number of Iranian drones were deployed to the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories to boost Moscow's offensive operations. As a result, all Iranian and foreign companies responsible for transferring combat drones to Ukraine via Russia became the subject of additional sanctions imposed by Western countries.

Given the rising international pressure, Iran and Russia eyes opportunities to avoid sanctions and criticism. As such, several reports recently surfaced that Iran launched drone export to Russia from Tajikistan, where an Iranian drone factory was recently inaugurated as a part of Iran - Tajikistan thaw. On May 17, the Iranian government officially inaugurated its first overseas drone factory in Dushanbe, Tajikistan; the facility manufactures the indigenous Ababil-2, a multipurpose reconnaissance drone capable also of fulfilling combat and suicide missions. The Ababil-2 boasts a maximum range of 200 kilometres and can sustain roughly 90 minutes of flight time. The new drone factory is said to help Iran improve its relations with Tajikistan after a period of lingering diplomatic tension. Interestingly, Iran has publicly introduced its new drone factory in Tajikistan.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian media reported that Tajikistan is not the only post-Soviet state that assembles Iranian drones within its borders, as Uzbekistan also hosts another "Iranian drone factory." However, in the latter's case, it appeared to be an unverified report, as official Tashkent refuted allegations and the media deleted the relevant information.

Moreover, Tajikistan has also denied supplying Iranian-designed armed drones reportedly produced at a manufacturing facility in its capital to Russia for use in its bombing campaigns against Ukraine. The Foreign Ministry in Dushanbe released a statement on November 30 to refute claims made last week by a prominent Ukrainian journalist that Tajik-made drones were being used for "killing Ukrainians."

"The republic of Tajikistan does not export military equipment to third countries," the ministry said in its statement.

Tajikistan's appeal sounds rational given the fact that the Iranian overseas drone factory manufactures the above-mentioned Ababil-2 drones, while Russian forces use Shaheed-136 drones in Ukraine. The Shahid-136 is a relatively new model employed by Russian forces under the name Geran-2. It is larger and slower than the Ababil-2, with a maximum reported speed of 185 km/hour but with a much longer range, estimated at between 1,800 and 2,500 kilometres. Moreover, the drone factory in Tajikistan was inaugurated in May of 2022, so it is unclear if such a factory is capable of producing a sufficient number of drones to be deployed to Ukraine. During the inauguration, there was no mention that combat drones can leave for overseas markets. Most likely, the drones produced here are for the Tajik army in light of the recent violent border tensions with neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. So, if Tajik-produced Iranian drones are going to be seen anywhere, it’s going to be over the Kyrgyz-Tajik border — not in Ukraine.

Ukrainian military intelligence claimed last month that the Russian military had requested various kinds of missiles and ammunition from Tajikistan. Hence, the reports regarding the assembling of Iranian drones in Tajikistan to be used in Ukraine seemed unrealistic, though it is an undeniable fact that Russia had gone shopping across the former Soviet Union for ammunition to equip Soviet-era artillery systems. At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence reported efforts by Russia to recruit retired military and internal affairs employees from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, among others. However, earlier, Central Asian governments warned their citizens based in Russia not to join the war in Ukraine as Russia desperately seeks more “volunteer reservists” to replenish its shrinking ranks. In September 2022, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced that the city would be opening a military recruitment centre for foreign citizens at the Sakharovo migration centre in order to be able to convince Central Asian immigrants to join the Russian army in exchange for citizenship.

Although Russia's military losses in Ukraine exceed day-by-day, it is unlikely that Iran's additional drone supplies via the Tajikistan factory could shift the situation in Moscow's favour. With modest technical capacity, it is not credible that Tajikistan can jump in as a supplier of Iranian drones to Russia in a short time.