Tajikistan's internal escalation amid external problems Analysis by Maxim Petrov

The military-political situation in Tajikistan is escalating. Reuters reported that nine people have been killed in a shootout in the east of the country. Security forces killed eight anti-government militants who ambushed a convoy during an operation in eastern Tajikistan. In any case, that's what the country's Interior Ministry reported on May 18.

In addition, another Tajik officer was killed during a clash in the Gorno-Badakhshan region, which borders Afghanistan and China. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, a group of about 200 men blocked the road connecting Tajikistan and China in order to "destabilize the socio-political situation". The same group also attacked a convoy of government forces.

The Interior Ministry said the order had been restored in the province and that the attackers demanded the resignation of the provincial government appointed by President Emomali Rahmon. The latter has led the republic since 1994, gradually consolidating power, eliminating opposition and pushing back political rivals.

Tajik authorities have also blamed foreign forces and international terrorist groups for the events. However, some sources give a different version of events. Hundreds of Khorog residents protested on May 14, demanding the resignations of Khorog Oblast Governor Alisher Mirzonabot and Khorog Mayor Rizo Nazarzod, lifting all roadblocks in Khorog and ending harassment of Badakhshan residents, according to the website Present Time. The protesters also demanded the release of local social activist Amriddin Alovatshoyev, MMA fighter Chorshanbe Chorshanbiyev (the famous athlete was recently sentenced to 8.5 years in prison), and other residents of the region detained after last November's protests.

Authorities in Gorno-Badakhshan refused to consider dismissing the region's governor and mayor of Khorog. They called the protesters' demands illegal. In response, a large group of local youths marched toward the oblast administration on May 16. They were met by law enforcement near Chinak and faced with rubber bullets and tear gas. One Khorog resident was killed, and three others were injured, the Ministry of Internal Affairs said. Locals, on the other hand, said several protesters were wounded by the shots fired by security forces.

Gorno-Badakhshan suffers social problems related to poverty and lack of basic services. In addition, there is dissatisfaction with police repression. The region also has experience with armed resistance.

Internal conflicts are unfolding against the backdrop of a tense external situation. Tajikistan is one of the few states that has supported the anti-Taliban opposition in neighbouring Afghanistan. For Rahmon, this is a very risky decision, given the fact that in Afghanistan, in turn, there are representatives of various Islamist militias, including those of Tajik origin, interested in external expansion in the direction of primarily Tajikistan.

On the other hand, there is a conflict with Kyrgyzstan over border areas and water, a conflict that in April-May 2021 escalated into military action between the two states.

Such a combination of external and internal problems is very dangerous, and the government of the country expresses concern about it. The situation leads to Tajikistan's rearming. According to Al-Monitor, Iran is opening a drone factory in Tajikistan. The Islamic Republic seeks to strengthen ties with its Persian-speaking neighbour, and drones play a major role in its military and political strategy. The plant in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe will produce the Abagil 2 combat drones. Major General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, attended the factory opening ceremony on May 17.

At the same time, acting Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev said that Turkey has transferred Turkish combat drones Bayraktar to Tajikistan, despite requests from the Kyrgyz side not to do so. Kyrgyz MPs questioned whether it was true that Turkey had sent Bayraktars to Tajikistan. "We also received this information and instructed the ambassador and other bodies to study it. But we previously asked Turkey not to provide military equipment to the neighbouring country yet because of unresolved problems. But they responded that it was business," Kulubayev replied.

Tajikistan's willingness for advanced weapons demonstrates the seriousness of the situation in which the country finds itself today. However, even if Tajikistan manages to successfully solve external problems, Rakhmon will be left alone with his society, which is dissatisfied with the state of the country's economy.