"The role of the US in the South Caucasus is in cautious de-escalation" Theodore Karasik on Caliber.Az

Interview with Theodore Karasik - senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington DC.

- The talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers moderated by Antony Blinken took place in Washington. In your opinion, what is the US interest here – the true peace between the two countries or, as some believe, squeezing Russia out of the South Caucasus?

- The talks ongoing and Washington and follow-up on the Armenia-Azerbaijan issues are tied both to Russia and Iran outcomes. The United States is looking for some kind of agreement where both sides will de-escalate because the policy requirement to box in Russia but at the same time try to keep Iran restrained. But this is a delicate balancing act and the outcome is not quite clear, especially given Tehran's expansive designs. Russia and Iran are close which makes everybody else on edge, especially given the Russia Factor. So this effort is about squeezing and not really about settling anything but it's way too premature to be at that stage anyway.

- The Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations are taking place in three platforms - Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Which of theme has a higher chance of bringing reconciliation between Baku and Yerevan?

- The fact that there are three different platforms for this effort is testimony to the various angles and sides and debates on the issue of trying to have some type of reconciliation but given the invasion of Ukraine and the continuing battle that that presents is going to have a direct impact on the success levels of these three different platforms. Time is key here. Russia is planning the long-term despite all the conditions against it. That the West hopes for some kind of breakthrough but Ukrainian troops over the coming months and that may have an impact on the platform center. It seems many sides are waiting to see what happens next.

- What role does the South Caucasus play in US foreign policy? And what place does it occupy?

- The South Caucuses has always been a location where the US government and business has tried to rectify the differences between Armenia and Azerbaijan.  We can't forget Georgia here too because of its place in this historical triangle.  The United States treats each country separately and then sees how the pieces fit together in the current context. This has been a long process of observation and cajoling, sometimes partnership and sometimes some shouting. Iran historically has been the boogeyman and they're playing the same role today.  The US role in this region is meant to de-escalate carefully but not yet involved too much on the ground. The US relies on Türkiye for some of this activity.  And when it comes to Georgia this is also a big piece of the pie particularly when it comes to trains and ports. 

- Iran's nuclear program. Is there enough time for its peaceful settlement or it's already late, so it needs to be solved by force?

- Iran's nuclear program and the discussions around it are really just trying to keep a process open. It seems the train left the station a long time ago on any kind of nuclear agreement at this time. Some of the Gulf States such as Qatar and Oman are trying to work out certain details to keep Tehran happy and not too aggressive.  To be sure the program continues to be a problem and the Iranian leadership plays games still which does not help people who are seriously trying to fix this situation with a helpful remedy. Iran continues to misbehave in various strategic interactions and the deployment of US military assets to the Gulf's testimony to see through Tehran's veneer.  The integration of the Caucuses and the Persian Gulf States is of great interest and very timely.  We cannot forget there is an Israeli Factor here too.

- China is considered the chief threat to the United States, while Russia is the second one. How does Washington intend to deter these threats? And is this even feasible in the case of China?

- The US is working with its allies and partners to try to keep Russia boxed in by sanctions and by buildup of force along with European allies. Meanwhile, China continues to push Westward with multiple multilateral organizations such as the BRI and BRICS plus SCO. All of these organizations are serious on a trajectory especially based on current disagreements between major powers. China's going to keep pushing Westward and the US is fighting that by asking Italy to give up its position and the BRI.  China's ability to play the strategic game of "Go" means that they are able to gather their allies and partners in a more robust way than the US who from a local perspective in these regions has lost much respect in which is in the process of being rebuilt.  With Russia's development of closer relations with North Korea, this China Factor becomes key as well as the 30-year agreement between Tehran and Beijing.  This activity potentially lengthens the violence that were witnessing now in a number of different theatres in the region.

- The Russia-Ukraine war. What is your estimate of its outcome? Can the US weaken aid to Ukraine and if yes, under which circumstances?

- To tell the truth, it seems that the Neo-soviet curve in Russia is going to sustain that government for quite a while.  Even though Moscow was kneecapped in the opening year of the war there's no doubt that this kinetic activity will continue. Despite the hope for cracks in the empire, Russia continues on because it had prepared for a massive crackdown several years before so exploiting anything is difficult. Information operations only goes so far. The bad news is that Russia is teaching the next generations its current ideology so this is going to be a big problem for a decade or so to come.  Having said that a successful Ukrainian campaign to cut a land corridor to the Sea of Azov may be able to have a major impact on internal Russian politics. Putin won't last forever but who comes next is very likely from within this greater mindset of siloviki/chekist.