Transnistria tensions: propaganda vs real military plans Analysts assess potential military scenarios in Moldova

The Polish publication Myśl Polska reported that Romania is prepared to send its troops to Moldova. If unrest breaks out in the Transnistrian region of Moldova during the parliamentary elections on 28 September, Bucharest could carry out a lightning-fast military operation there.

“Some sources claim that a potential Romanian operation in Transnistria could be carried out by the 8th Operational-Tactical Missile Brigade named after Alexandra Ioana Cuzy. This brigade has combat experience and has participated in missions as a support unit, notably in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kosovo,” the article states.

The authors note that the Romanian army’s command has already considered such a scenario, taking into account the possibility of conducting military operations beyond the country’s borders.

Romania’s Ministry of Defence has previously drafted a new version of the Defence Act. The draft law provides for the potential militarisation of units subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as intervention in other countries if justified by the need to protect the rights of Romanian citizens abroad. Approximately 1.5 million people in Moldova hold Romanian passports.

“There is information that Romanian military units stationed near the border with Moldova have been placed on high alert, particularly the 8th Operational-Tactical Missile Brigade based in Focșani and the 10th Lower Danube Engineer Brigade in Brăila. The military bases of these units are in close proximity to the Moldovan border. Thus, in the event of a crisis in Transnistria, Romanian troops could be deployed to Moldova very quickly,” writes the Polish publication.

It is noted that such actions have already been practised by NATO forces in simulations both on Romanian territory and within Moldova itself. President Maia Sandu could use the army to restore control over Transnistria under the pretext of preventing destabilisation during the elections. The Romanian president elected this year, Nicușor Dan, has repeatedly stated that his country intends to strengthen the security of the Republic of Moldova, primarily by supporting its pro-Western aspirations.

“Earlier reports indicated that Sandu discussed with UK Prime Minister Starmer the possible involvement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in an operation against Transnistria, which, in that case, would operate under British protection,” Myśl Polska concludes.

Prominent experts shared their opinions on the matter with Caliber.Az.

Dr. Vitalie Andrievschi, a historian and Director of the Institute of Effective Policy in Chișinău, believes there is no doubt that crisis response plans exist in the headquarters of various countries, primarily Romania and Ukraine, including possible military operations on Moldovan territory.

“These plans are not published, but their existence is obvious: every country is preparing for worst-case scenarios.

Scenario One — a Russian breakthrough to Moldova’s borders. If Russia breaches Ukraine’s defence and reaches the Moldovan border, two options are possible: the seizure of part of Moldova, primarily Transnistria, or an attempt to occupy the entire country.

In both cases, Romanian intervention and the deployment of its troops into Moldova are theoretically possible. However, this does not automatically resolve the situation. Everything will depend on the speed of events, NATO’s position, and Chișinău’s own response.

Scenario Two — victory of pro-Russian forces in the elections. If pro-Russian parties win the parliamentary elections on 28 September and form a government, Moscow would gain a legal foothold for military actions. In this case, Russian military presence in Transnistria could be strengthened via Moldova. The next step might be an offensive against Ukraine, particularly in the Odessa region. Ukraine’s army would then be forced to launch a counteroffensive, which would effectively draw Moldova into the conflict.

In this situation, Romania could justify the deployment of its troops as a measure to protect its citizens living in Moldova and appeal to humanitarian and allied obligations,” the expert noted.

There are arguments both for and against such actions.

“For: Romania is a NATO country, yet its army could operate based on bilateral agreements with Moldova and under the pretext of protecting Romanian citizens. Moscow fully understands this risk, which is why it seeks to destabilise Chișinău as much as possible.

Against: NATO does not have a precedent for intervention without a direct attack on a member state. Therefore, the scenario in which the alliance would ‘approve’ the deployment of Romanian troops into Moldova is unlikely. More realistic are unilateral actions by Romania, followed by political debates within the alliance.

The conclusion is that the scenarios discussed in the media, including on the Polish platform Myśl Polska, appear more like hypotheses than concrete plans. Yet even raising the question indicates that Moldova is seen as a potential theatre for military escalation.

Actual Romanian intervention would only be possible in a severe crisis: either direct Russian aggression or the de facto transformation of Chișinău into a Kremlin foothold,” he said.

Romanian political analyst Mihai Isac believes that the information published in Myśl Polska and subsequently picked up by anonymous Telegram channels from Romania or Moldova has no real basis and should be viewed through the lens of propaganda.

“Periodically, coordinated campaigns appear on Telegram channels with alarmist messages about an alleged upcoming Romanian military intervention in Transnistria. These posts, accompanied by photographs presented as ‘evidence,’ can attract hundreds of thousands of views daily.

The narrative is simple and manipulative, characteristic of Russian propaganda: Romania is supposedly preparing a military operation at Maia Sandu’s request in case the ruling PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity) loses the elections. Such formulations are intended to sow panic and distrust in the authorities, as well as to associate Romania and NATO with scenarios of war in Moldova.

The Myśl Polska article, also circulated by the Russian press, is a translation of material originally published on Dimineata.info, which in turn cites so-called ‘informed sources’ without providing any evidence.

There are claims about the mobilisation of military brigades from Focșani and Brăila, but there is no reliable confirmation of this. The authorities of both countries have denied such rumours,” the political analyst emphasised.

According to him, such texts are conspiratorial in nature, interpreting Moldovan–Romanian relations in an alarmist manner and being used in the election campaign to discredit the authorities in Chișinău.

“Citing foreign media publications is one of Russia’s classic methods for giving credibility to fabrications. This is a lie, part of Kremlin rhetoric intended to sow fear and panic ahead of parliamentary elections. Russia uses social networks as a weapon of mass influence against target countries like Romania and the Republic of Moldova. Romania respects the independence and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, yet such rumours continue to appear periodically.

Cooperation between the Republic of Moldova and its partner states is based on international and national legislation, which provides for neutrality.

Only the Russian Federation, not other states, has stationed occupation forces in Transnistria. This region remains a secure base for Moscow’s intelligence operations against Moldova, Ukraine, and other countries.

Like Azerbaijan, the Republic of Moldova and Romania are frequently the targets of large-scale disinformation campaigns,” Isac said.