What next after Russia’s failed Kharkiv offensive?

Under continuous assault from Russian troops and grappling with shortages of personnel and ammunition, Ukraine’s army has once again showcased its resilience, driven by the fight for national survival, making it a formidable defensive force.

The Russian campaign, which began on May 10, aimed to establish a buffer zone near its border with the Kharkiv district. However, it also served as a test for Ukrainian units spread across a 1,000 km (620 mile) front line. Nearly two months later, Ukraine has withstood this challenging test, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

What comes next? The failure of the Russian spring offensive offers crucial insights into the evolving conditions of both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries as they enter the third year of the Kremlin’s “special military operation.”

Following intense combat in the Kharkiv region, the relative strengths and weaknesses of each side have become more apparent, influenced by their strategic decisions, military capacities, and international support. How will the conflict evolve in the coming months?

The Russian military’s failure highlights several critical aspects of their operational capabilities and limitations. Russia launched the offensive with significant force, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses north of Kharkiv city, near Vovchansk. Additionally, this offensive aimed to divert Ukrainian reserves from areas like Vuhledar (Luhansk) and Chasiv Yar (Donetsk), where Russia’s offensives have struggled to achieve breakthroughs.

Despite initial territorial gains, the Kharkiv campaign stalled by early June due to fierce Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges, exacerbated by Ukrainian attacks on supply lines in Russia’s Belgorod region.

This was enabled by the Biden administration’s approval of cross-border weaponry use and fresh US supplies of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles.

Russia’s inability to break Ukrainian forces underscores ongoing issues within its military, including poor planning and coordination, inadequate logistical support, and low troop morale. Despite lessons from over a year of intensive combat, Russia’s military still relies on outdated tactics and equipment.

While modernization attempts have been made, much of its hardware dates back to the Soviet era and lacks the technological edge of Western equipment.

Additionally, Russian forces have struggled with maintaining a steady supply chain, crucial for sustained operations. The offensive’s failure revealed weaknesses in Russian flexibility and command structures, which were outmaneuvered by more agile Ukrainian forces.

This rigidity stems from inadequate pre-combat training, with many soldiers entering combat with little preparation. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has lost a significant portion of its modern tanks and depleted its reserves of older models.

Confirmed losses include nearly 3,200 tanks, along with thousands of other armored vehicles and artillery pieces.

Sanctions against Russia have significantly impacted its military-industrial complex.

Despite increased weapons production due to the shift to a wartime economy, these sanctions and the contraction of Russia’s petrochemical industries have hindered its ability to procure advanced technology and equipment. For instance, production of Su-34 fighter bombers has decreased from 20 in 2022 to only eight projected for completion in 2024, with over 82 lost since February 2022.

Conversely, the Ukrainian military has demonstrated significant resilience and adaptability in response to the Russian offensive. Following the initial shock, Ukrainian forces regrouped and mounted a successful counteroffensive, stabilizing the frontlines and reclaiming key territories by mid-June.