Why tanks are back in fashion in 21st century warfare

Politico has published an article claiming that Ukraine wants hundreds of armored vehicles for a major counter-offensive against Russia. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

In the early years of the 21st century, military planners were pondering the unthinkable — were tanks becoming obsolete?

Unmanned drones, cyber warfare and other emerging technologies were seen as the weapons of the future. As recently as 2020, some defense chiefs thought Britain should mothball its tanks altogether.

But as 2023 dawns, and with Ukraine mulling a crucial spring offensive against Russia that could prove decisive in its struggle for survival, Kyiv is preparing to turn once more to the traditional land army equipment of 20th century warfare.

Ukraine’s military chiefs want hundreds of Western tanks for the next phase of the war, desperate to counter Moscow’s forces and break through lines of trenches in places such as Luhansk and the Zaporizhzhia region.

After months of stonewalling, NATO allies are starting to see the wisdom of the strategy, with the US, France and Britain all pledging armored vehicles for the first time in recent weeks.

It’s a reminder that for all the high-tech sophistication of modern warfare, sheer force on the ground still counts.

Speaking in the UK’s House of Commons Monday, senior Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin said the Ukraine conflict had exposed those “fashionable commentators decrying the idea that modern battle tanks have any utility in modern warfare.”

“Ukraine has shown that armor is important,” UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace agreed.

Kyiv argues the handful of vehicles committed by Western allies so far must be just the start, and is pushing for between 200 and 300 tanks, 600 infantry armored vehicles as well as 500 Howitzers, a weapon similar to a cannon.

“We need to seize the initiative,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister of Ukraine and a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. “Support with weapons will give us such an opportunity.”

Modern warfare

The Ukrainian army already uses Soviet-era tanks donated by Eastern European allies or captured from Russian occupiers. But the Western models its leaders crave would offer a step-change in capability ahead of a potential escalation of hostilities in the spring.

“Mobility is key in an offensive war,” said a diplomat from one EU country considering donating a number of modern battle tanks.

“If Ukraine is going to have any chance of going on the offensive, they need some mobility with heavy guns — it’s not just enough to have military-grade Land Rovers or armored patrolled vehicles. They need something that can actually destroy Russian tanks at distance.”

Ukraine’s flat territory makes it an ideal scenario for roaming tanks, experts say, and Kyiv needs tanks in order to retake fortified positions in key cities along the frontline.

“Ukraine will struggle to mount a second counteroffensive without a heavier force,” said Anthony King, a professor of war studies at Warwick University in the UK

Ukrainian officials fear the U.S.-built HIMARS multiple rocket systems, which devastated Russian forces during counter-offensive operations last fall, will prove less effective this time round because their enemy has moved further away to avoid being hit — making tanks more necessary than before.

A global supply squeeze on HIMARS may also start to bite this year, King warned.

“From all the evidence, they’re not going to have that amount of long-range precision artillery again,” said King. “So you need a heavier close force — i.e. tanks and fighting vehicles — to make up the difference.”

Leading the way

Talks among NATO allies are accelerating after France’s announcement that it will gift AMX-10 RC light combat tanks to Kyiv in two months’ time. The UK confirmed plans at the weekend to send British-made Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Western governments could come forward with further commitments ahead of this Friday’s meeting of defense ministers from allied countries at the U.S. military base of Ramstein in southwest Germany.

EU member states from the Baltic and Central Europe regions hope a series of individual pledges will put pressure on Germany to allow other nations to export German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.