Israel’s military strategy fails to drive Saudi Arabia closer to normalisation

Israel's military actions and its broader strategy in the Middle East have recently sparked unexpected shifts in regional dynamics, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Foreign Affairs features.

In the past decade, especially following the 2020 Abraham Accords, Israel has increasingly relied on its military, intelligence, and technological strength to gain allies in the Arab Gulf states. More recently, Israeli officials have believed that escalating tensions could tilt the regional balance in their favour: a broader conflict between Israel and Iran, along with its proxies, could pressure Arab nations—particularly Saudi Arabia—to align more fully with Israel. Israeli leaders theorized that a regional war would prompt Iran and its proxies to respond to Israeli provocations, potentially unraveling the delicate reconciliation between the Gulf states and Iran.

This, in turn, would make them—particularly Saudi Arabia—more reliant on security assurances from Israel's primary ally, the United States. Israeli officials were convinced that the Gulf states' opposition to Israeli operations in Gaza and their diplomatic support for Palestinians were secondary to their own strategic interests. Therefore, they argued, escalation would underscore Iran as the main threat to their Arab neighbours, ultimately forcing the Gulf states to strengthen ties with Israel. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly expressed this reasoning in his September UN speech, referring to the Gulf states as Israel’s “Arab partners of peace” and urging Saudi Arabia to partner with Israel to counter “Iran’s nefarious designs.” Israel's assumptions, however, have proven to be misguided. In reality, Israel's actions in Gaza and the broader region are driving Saudi Arabia and Iran closer together. While Israeli operations have targeted some of Saudi Arabia’s adversaries, like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the prospect of an all-out war in the Middle East—and Israel’s potential dominance—has pushed Saudi Arabia into a more proactive stance. Riyadh has reaffirmed its commitment to Palestinian statehood and worked to maintain strategic flexibility, engaging both the United States and, increasingly, Iran and China. Israel's escalation against Iran and its proxies will likely prompt Tehran, fearing isolation, to strengthen its security discussions with Riyadh and possibly offer the Gulf states more robust security guarantees. 

For Saudi Arabia, such guarantees hold more value than any intelligence Israel can provide on Iranian threats. To Washington, Saudi Arabia's warming ties with Iran might seem concerning, especially after years of US efforts to encourage normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the United States should view Riyadh's shift positively. If Saudi Arabia can establish cooperative relationships with both Iran and Israel, it could play a vital role in de-escalating Middle Eastern tensions. Riyadh could serve as a mediator between competing factions, potentially bringing an end to the ongoing Iranian-Israeli standoff. 

The events of the past year have disrupted traditional boundaries, deterrence strategies, and rules of engagement, and Riyadh is in a unique position to help guide the region toward a more stable and balanced order. Israel's recent demonstration of military strength has three primary objectives: to weaken Iran and its proxies, to reinforce Israel's importance as an ally to neighbouring countries, and to pressure Saudi Arabia into normalising diplomatic relations with Israel by highlighting Riyadh's reliance on US security support. 

By Naila Huseynova