Will 2024 be a more successful year for China-Russia relations? No limit partnership

In 2024, Russia and China are set to deepen the strategic partnership to tackle complex foreign policy issues, namely the Taiwan issue and the Ukraine conflict. Both states maintain a firm stance on the issues mentioned, referring to "national interests and security concerns".

Beijing seeks to block the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from sweeping Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13.

Moscow, meanwhile, aims to shore up Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and put pressure on the West to stop funding Ukraine in its resistance against the invasion campaign. Former President Donald Trump is currently favoured to become the next president of the United States and has said, ominously, that he will end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours.

The development of China-Russia relations in the past three-quarters of a century has shown that continuously consolidating and developing bilateral ties featuring permanent good-neighbourly friendship, comprehensive strategic coordination, and mutually beneficial cooperation serves the fundamental interests of the two countries and peoples meets the expectations of the international community and conforms to the trend of the times.

Indeed, the year 2023 was not easy for both Moscow and Beijing as both nations faced fundamental challenges to their security and development. For Russia, the most challenging task was to quell Ukraine's counter-offensive and tackle the sanctions regime, while Beijing’s open confrontation with the U.S. regarding economic sanctions and frequent threats to "re-unite with Taiwan" through a military offensive.

The less stable and potentially more hostile international environment in 2023 further motivated Moscow and Beijing to strengthen their ties in various areas, including economic cooperation, solidarity in U.N. Security Council voting, and coordination on regional crises.

Indeed, compared to China, Russia benefits more from a strategic partnership with Beijing as the latter provides a replacement market for exports to Europe, and its support also undercuts Western attempts to isolate Russia from the global economy. Meanwhile, China depends on Russian fuel supplies and raw materials. The Kremlin’s desperation for a powerful trading partner enables China to pay for Russia’s commodities at a discount and in Chinese renminbi.

2023 was a very successful year for bilateral trade that has already surpassed the psychological mark of $200 billion. Another significant accomplishment is that 90 per cent of this trade is now denominated in national currencies compared to only 25 per cent two years ago.

Moreover, as a part of the strategy to increase trade turnover between the two states, the volume hit $218 billion in 20,23 per Chinese data. In addition, Chinese shipments to Russia rose 34% to $10.3 billion in November 2023, and imports from Russia rose 6% to $11.2 billion in the same period.

In light of the heightening tensions with the West and potential armed escalation, the Russia-China security partnership gained momentum, particularly in the critical Arctic region. Amid international sanctions, Russia is working to quickly flex its muscle in the region by partnering with China to build infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route, one of two major shipping lanes across the Arctic.

The partnership in the Arctic has grown dramatically in early 2023, a year after the invasion of Ukraine unfolded. As such, many argue it is a signal that Russia and China increasingly share economic interests in the icy polar region.

Indeed, the Moscow-Beijing security partnership is not limited to the Arctic region, as most of the ongoing conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and other parts of the world are likely to continue in 2024.

In this vein, China and Russia will likely deepen security partnerships to maintain their interests in a broader geography. Therefore, the China-Russia partnership will potentially go beyond traditional fields in 2024 and become more substantial and ambitious.

Notwithstanding the close partnership, Russia and China's interests regarding international order vary. For example, Russia is keen to destroy the current international order, while China seems hesitant as it economically benefits from the existing order. Therefore, the PRC does not work to break the current order; it works to bend it toward its benefit. In 2024, both states will likely work to fix the agenda and foster deeper ties against the West.