Azerbaijan’s anti-fascism campaign and Trump's stance on Ukraine shape global debate January 20 turning point in modern history

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” ("Events") show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, covering the top news of the week related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

The week was primarily marked by a comprehensive interview of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev with local TV channels. Touching on a wide range of domestic and foreign issues, the president specifically emphasized the context in which global and regional events are unfolding — the old world order is collapsing, a new one is emerging, and Azerbaijan must pursue an active policy to play a role in shaping this new order. In this context, President Aliyev positively assessed Azerbaijan's entry into the Islamic Eight (D-8) which has now, accordingly, become the Islamic Nine.

He also highlighted the growing global influence of the Organisation of Turkic States and the strengthening of Türkiye's influence in the Middle East as key factors driving Azerbaijan's foreign policy activity. As expected, a significant portion of the statements was dedicated to the issue of normalisation of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. One of the central factors threatening the security of our region, President Aliyev identified the militarization of Armenia, and, on a deeper level, the fascist ideology underlying Armenia. 

President Aliyev's words were clear: “We are neighbors with such a fascist state, and the threat of fascism is not going away. Therefore, fascism must be destroyed. Either the Armenian leadership will destroy it, or we will. We have no other choice”.

The president also presented another condition: "Armenia must immediately cease arming itself. France and other countries that supply weapons to Armenia must terminate and cancel these contracts. The weapons that have already been delivered to Armenia must be returned”.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan quickly responded to the Azerbaijani president's demands with a post on his Facebook page. 

This text, consisting of twelve points, essentially represents a refusal to meet Baku's fair demands. A semblance of constructiveness is given by the agreement to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, which, as we remember, is one of Baku's preconditions for a peace agreement and which Pashinyan presented as his own proposal. As the saying goes, any bauble of folly will keep baby jolly​​. Today, it became known that Armenia is considering the possibility of appealing to the OSCE with a request to dissolve the Minsk Group, as announced by press secretary of Armenia's prime minister Nazeli Baghdasaryan on Facebook. 

Well, now we’ll have to wait and see whether the Armenian government will indeed move forward with the legal dissolution of the Minsk Group or if it will backtrack on its own agreement. If Yerevan proceeds with this decision, it will send a positive signal and mark an important step towards officially abandoning the Karabakh agenda. Another crucial step, of course, should be a change to Armenia’s Constitution. 

When the request to initiate the dissolution of the Minsk Group was first made, Pashinyan initially responded with a de facto refusal. However, as soon as Aliyev adopted a tougher stance, repeating old conditions and introducing new ones, the Armenian prime minister showed a growing willingness to take a step toward compromise.   However, let's not be overly optimistic about Armenia's peaceful intentions. After all, Pashinyan refused to fulfill Baku's demand for demilitarization.

Given all that has been said, the question arises. What else must Baku say or do for Yerevan to agree to implement this condition? Meanwhile, the Armenian government has officially approved a bill to initiate the country's accession process to the EU. The bill will be presented to the parliament for consideration. At this stage, it clearly sounds more like a symbolic message – nevertheless, it has already caused surprise in Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Armenia is unlikely to be able to be part of both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union simultaneously. Meanwhile, the actions of Yerevan are closely monitored in the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to exclusive information obtained by Caliber.Az, during a visit to Yerevan, Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, presented a series of demands to Armenia's leadership, the failure to meet which could have serious consequences for the country.  

Iran, which is effectively on the brink of a major joint attack from Israel and the US, is deeply concerned about the growing Western presence in Armenia. This includes the EU's intelligence mission, the US military contingent in Zangezur, and the broader trend of Yerevan deepening its integration processes with the EU and NATO. Now, on the brink of an existential threat, Tehran is presenting Yerevan with an ultimatum. Ali Akbar Ahmadian has unmistakably urged Armenia's leadership to abandon its aspirations for EU and NATO membership. 

He clearly warned his Armenian counterparts that continuing down this path would bring nothing but negative consequences for Yerevan. Ahmadian also emphasized that Iran expects Armenia to discontinue the EU's espionage mission. Should Yerevan agree to Tehran's conditions, the Iranian official proposed the possibility of signing a defense pact between the two countries, which would include provisions such as the deployment of Iranian armed forces on Armenian territory. 

In this situation, Yerevan must seriously consider whether it would be wiser to strengthen its statehood through peace and cooperation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

Ukraine – Russia

After weeks of fighting, the Russian army has taken control of the biggest settlement in the southwestern part of Donbas, Kurakhove town and continues its advance around Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have launched a new major offensive in Russia's Kursk region. 

The current intensification of Ukrainian forces appears to be an attempt to disrupt the relative equilibrium that had been established on this section of the front, creating serious threats to other major settlements in the Kursk region and forcing the Russian command to deploy bigger reserves there. 

At the meeting of NATO and Ukrainian representatives in the Ramstein format, the US announced a new military aid package to Ukraine worth $500 million, which will be the last for President Biden's outgoing administration. At the same time, many view this meeting in Ramstein as the last in this format, as they doubt Trump's willingness to continue in this direction. 

During a big press conference in Florida, Trump expressed hope that the conflict could be resolved within six months or sooner. At the same time, he did not rule out the possibility that the situation could escalate into something much more serious. By hinting at this, he suggested to Moscow that he could continue supplying arms to Kyiv. 

However, Trump quickly followed up with a reassuring statement, expressing his understanding of the Russian government's stance against Ukraine's NATO membership and criticising the actions of the outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden on this matter.

Middle East

Trump's Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff is engaged in intensive negotiations in Doha, aiming to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by January 20. 

The talks are close to success, but some complex issues remain. The key challenge is confirming which hostages—mostly women, the wounded, and the elderly—are still alive. Other aspects are also being discussed, including the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor. 

Despite the proximity to an agreement, internal disagreements within the Israeli government are hindering progress. Some ministers strongly criticise the negotiations, insisting on a complete victory over Hamas and a subsequent long-term military presence in the Palestinian enclave. 

Trump warned that a real hell would break out in the Middle East if Hamas has not returned the hostages by the time he takes office. Unlike his position on Ukraine, where he put forward a compromise proposal — Ukraine's non-membership in NATO — he has taken a much harder stance on the Middle East. All signs point to January 20 becoming a turning point in modern history.