US spy agencies say Putin aims beyond Ukraine Exclusive by Reuters

U.S. intelligence assessments continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to seize all of Ukraine and potentially reclaim parts of Europe once under Soviet control, six sources familiar with the report told Reuters.

The intelligence assessments, the most recent of which dates to late September, sharply contradict statements by U.S. President Donald Trump and his peace negotiators, who have argued that Putin is prepared to end the conflict. The findings also run counter to Putin’s repeated denials that Russia poses a broader threat to Europe.

According to the sources, U.S. intelligence conclusions have remained consistent since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and broadly align with assessments by European governments and intelligence agencies. These agencies believe Putin seeks full control of Ukraine and may also target former Soviet bloc states, including members of the NATO alliance.

“The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more,” said Democratic Congressman Mike Quigley, a member of the House Intelligence Committee. “The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they’re first.”

Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces, and Crimea. Putin claims all four regions, as well as Crimea, as Russian territory.

Two sources familiar with the matter said Trump is pressuring Kyiv to withdraw its remaining forces from parts of Donetsk as part of a proposed peace deal, a condition Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and most Ukrainians reject.

A White House official said Trump’s team had made “tremendous progress” toward ending the war and that a deal was “closer than ever,” without addressing the intelligence findings. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA, and the Russian embassy did not respond to requests for comment.

Trump’s negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have been working for weeks on a 20-point peace plan with Ukrainian, Russian, and European officials. While progress has been reported, deep divisions remain over territory. The two were meeting Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Friday and were expected to hold talks with Russian representatives over the weekend.

In parallel talks in Berlin, U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials reached broad agreement on U.S.-backed security guarantees for Ukraine, according to diplomats and sources. These would take effect after a peace agreement and include a largely European security force stationed in Ukraine away from the front lines and in neighboring countries, U.S.-provided intelligence support, Senate ratification, and U.S.-backed air patrols over Ukraine.

One source said the guarantees depend on Ukraine ceding territory, though other diplomats disputed this, noting that alternatives were under review as Zelenskyy has ruled out territorial concessions. Ukraine’s military would be capped at 800,000 troops, though Russia is seeking a lower ceiling, which U.S. officials may consider.

Zelenskyy voiced scepticism on Thursday, asking: “There’s a question I still can’t get an answer to: What will these security guarantees actually do?”

It remains unclear whether Putin would accept such guarantees, having repeatedly rejected the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine. On Friday, he offered no concessions, saying his terms must be met as Russian forces advanced about 6,000 square kilometres this year.

Some Trump administration officials have privately acknowledged that Putin may not settle for less than his original objectives. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on December 19: “I don’t know if Putin wants to do a deal or Putin wants to take the whole country… We know what they wanted to achieve initially when the war began. They haven’t achieved those objectives.”

By Tamilla Hasanova