Iran ready to deploy troops in Armenia Exclusive by Caliber.Az

According to exclusive information received by Caliber.Az, during his visit to Yerevan, Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, presented a series of demands to the Armenian leadership, the failure to meet which could have serious consequences for the country. But let's start from the beginning.

The large-scale war in the Middle East, which began on October 7, 2023, has resulted in huge and even irreparable losses for the Islamic Republic of Iran. As a result of the IDF strikes, the so-called Axis of Resistance, built by Tehran over several decades, began to crumble. Hamas in Gaza, although not completely destroyed, was seriously weakened. Hezbollah was nearly decapitated under devastating Israeli strikes. At the same time, Israel attacked Iranian air defence systems and, together with the U.S. Air Force, launched powerful strikes on the Houthi bases in Yemen. And by the end of 2024, Iran lost its main "asset" in the Axis of Resistance – the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Realising that it is suffering defeats along nearly the entire perimeter of its borders, Iran is now attempting to secure itself at least from the north. Here, Tehran has substantial reasons for concern, given Armenia's transformation into a Western outpost. This is where things get particularly interesting.

As is already known, on January 8, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, received Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadian. During the meeting, President Ilham Aliyev emphasised that Baku supports the resolution of regional issues by regional states and, in this regard, Azerbaijan initiated the 3+3 format, aimed at fostering regional cooperation. The inadmissibility of involving extra-regional external forces in the region was once again underscored.

For Iran, the situation with Azerbaijan is relatively clear. Azerbaijan is a predictable and honest partner in its relations with other states. Firstly, Azerbaijan pursues an independent foreign policy and has no intention of turning its territory into a testing ground for Western powers. Secondly, there are no foreign military bases on Azerbaijani territory that Iran could perceive as a threat. Thirdly, official Baku has repeatedly emphasised that all issues in the region must be resolved exclusively by the regional countries themselves.

It is a different matter with Armenia, whose authorities have deliberately turned the country into a thoroughfare for Western security structures. Firstly, Tehran cannot help but be irritated by the presence of the EU monitoring mission near its borders. In reality, this mission has already morphed into a NATO operation, conducting surveillance not only on Azerbaijan but also on Iran and Russian military forces stationed in Armenia.

Iran is also troubled by the fact that Armenia regularly holds military exercises on its territory with American troops. Moreover, as Caliber.Az reported in August last year, a limited contingent of the U.S. Army has already been deployed in Armenia, specifically in Zangezur, right on Iran's border. This contingent is equipped with specialised devices for tracking the trajectories of missiles and other aerial vehicles launched from Iranian territory. The American detachment is stationed at an Armenian Armed Forces base in Zangezur, a fact Tehran is undoubtedly aware of.

Finally, the Islamic Republic, already under pressure from multiple directions, cannot ignore the pro-Western aspirations of Pashinyan's government, which has set a direct course towards deeper cooperation with the EU and NATO.

Now, let us return to Ali Akbar Ahmadian, who, after his visit to Baku, travelled to Yerevan, where he held a candid discussion with Armenia's leadership. Ahmadian stated that achieving peace and security in the South Caucasus is only possible through interaction and cooperation among the regional countries. The presence of external forces in the region, he warned, can only exacerbate the situation.

According to information obtained by Caliber.Az from diplomatic sources, Ali Akbar Ahmadian unequivocally urged the Armenian leadership to abandon its aspirations for EU and NATO membership. He explicitly warned his Armenian counterparts that pursuing this course bodes ill for Yerevan. Ahmadian also emphasised that Iran expects Armenia to dismantle the EU's intelligence mission.

Should Yerevan comply with Tehran’s demands, the Iranian official proposed signing a defence pact between the two countries. Notably, this pact includes provisions for the deployment of Iranian armed forces on Armenian territory.

As we can see, Armenia finds itself caught between two, if not three, fires. Which path or course of action it will choose will become evident soon enough. However, one thing is undeniable—Yerevan has ended up in a position where each subsequent step will be more painful than the last.

That said, there is little room for sympathy here. The Armenian authorities had ample time to make peace with Azerbaijan, restore relations with Türkiye, and thereby shield themselves from such an overwhelmingly negative scenario on all fronts.