Yerevan continues to walk tightrope despite Western promises Commitments to Russia-led blocs won't go away

Armenia is sharply strengthening its policy of rapprochement with the US, France and the EU as a whole. There are still few practical results of “European integration”, but relations with Moscow have become more complicated.

Political wishes versus economic reality

Armenia has recently repeatedly declared its desire to join the EU. However, will the EU accept Armenia?

Armenia’s shift towards the West is not connected with economic reality. Armenia’s trade turnover with the EAEU member states increased by 42.7 per cent, export volume increased by 40.8 per cent and amounted to $7.6 billion in 2023. However, trade turnover with the EU member states is three times less. It was equal to $2.5 billion in 2023. Armenia has a negative balance in trade with the EU.

Today, as before, Russia is Armenia’s biggest trading partner. The trade turnover volume with the Russian Federation for January–November 2023 amounted to more than $6.3 billion. China ranks second with $1.9 billion. The UAE ranks third with $1.4 billion. Iran ranks fourth with $628 million, ahead of the US (the fifth place) with $627 million.

The trade turnover volume with the UAE greatly increased by 2.7 times, Kazakhstan – by 2.3 times, Japan – by 2.1 times. Turnover with the Republic of Korea increased by 98 per cent.

The same trend is typical for the export of Armenian products. More than $3.1 billion out of $6.9 billion of export volume from Armenia, that is, over 40 per cent, accounts for the Russian Federation. At the same time, the export of goods to the CIS countries increased by 51 per cent. However, supplies to the EU member states decreased by 5.5 per cent over 11 months of 2023 and amounted to $677 million.

The import of goods to Armenia is at the same level. Russia is also the leader here, supplying goods worth $3.2 billion. The EU member states supply goods worth only $2 billion to Armenia.

Thus, priority in Armenia’s foreign trade belongs to Russia, China and, in most cases, Eurasia and Asia. The EU member states are inferior both in terms of total volumes and growth rates.

Is Armenia a new outpost on NATO's southern flank?

However, all these objective trends do not confuse the Armenian current leadership. Yerevan made a purely political, as they used to say, voluntaristic decision to move closer to the West. There is no grounds to look for reasons for this in the economy or state interests. There is an opinion that the whole point is primarily in the political background of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Several Armenian politicians directly accuse Pashinyan of being a recruited foreign agent. It seems that there are more powerful forces and serious reasons behind such a shift towards the West.

The Armenian leadership hopes that it will find a reliable ally in the West, primarily in the military sphere. The Armenian side has repeatedly made statements that the CSTO is not coping with its functions. Pashinyan, in an interview with the Italian La Repubblica newspaper, said in September 2023 that Russia was moving away from the South Caucasus, while Russian peacekeepers in the Karabakh region were not fulfilling their duties.

“I call on Armenia to join NATO. US president, defend Armenia!" European Development Committee of NATO Chairman Günter Fehlinger said in September 2023.

The US-Armenian joint exercises were held on September 11, 2023. Their scale was insignificant, but this event did not cause enthusiasm in the Russian Federation. At the same time, military cooperation between Yerevan and the US has been developing for a long time, but for some reason, the Kremlin previously did not pay attention to this. The Armenian ruling elite began to establish military alliances with the West - long before Pashinyan.

 Armenia, an ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), is also a member of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Coalition. Armenia joined the coalition back in 2004. The media outlets in the Russian Federation and the CIS did not pay attention to this fact.

This is not just nominal membership. Yerevan sent an infantry platoon to Kosovo in 2004, which subsequently operated as part of the Greek battalion. Then the composition of the Armenian unit in Kosovo was planned to be expanded to a company. The Armenian contingent with a total of 322 servicemen has been participating in Operation Iraqi Freedom as part of the Multinational Division “Central-South” since January 2005.

The Armenian military also participated in peacekeeping operations of Western troops in Afghanistan and Lebanon. The participation in peacekeeping missions that are sanctioned by the UN is one thing. However, Armenia took part in NATO exercises Defender 23 in spring 2023, the explicit task of which was to practice a hypothetical confrontation with Russia and Belarus, Yerevan’s allies in the CSTO. A special department has been created in the Armenian armed forces, responsible for international cooperation with the US and NATO member states.

A representative of this department is permanently in the CENTCOM command at MacDill Air Force Base. Probably, this cooperation from the Armenian point of view is bringing certain results. While speaking about the events of the First World War on the territory of the Ottoman Empire in April 2021, US President Joe Biden used the word “genocide” for the first time. Previous US presidents have refrained from such words.

Among the Western European countries, Yerevan is developing military cooperation with France. An expanded military programme, which was called a new “strategic proximity”, was announced at a meeting between Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan and French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu in Paris on October 23. According to the programme, France will provide Yerevan with air defence missiles and radars, and will also train the Armenian army. The French side does not hide that the reason for this decision was the defeat of Armenia in the war for Karabakh. Lecornu paid a return visit to Yerevan on February 23, 2024. By this time, instructors from the 27th Mountain Infantry Brigade of France began training the Armenian military at the Bagramyan training ground.

Papikyan tried to neutralise the negative resonance from these events by saying that they were not directed against “third countries”. The French minister tried to justify himself by saying that “we should not refer to big geopolitics”. It is quite obvious to everyone that such steps by Armenia are a real unfriendly challenge to Russia, especially amid the current phase of its conflict with the West.

Currently, diplomats on the sidelines talk about “international security guarantees” that the West should give to Yerevan. Of course, such guarantees are also directed against Azerbaijan. France also has a very important role here. The French ambassador to Armenia stated that the previous system of guarantees did not work, and “we must also draw conclusions from this”. The French prime minister intends to pay a visit to Yerevan soon.

Another line of military cooperation is Armenia-Greece-Cyprus. The bilateral and trilateral military consultations among Armenia, Greece and Cyprus were held at the Defence Ministry in Yerevan on December 8, 2023. The Armenian government approved a bill on military-technical cooperation with Athens on December 14. Greek National Defence Minister Nikos Dendias took the initiative on March 4, 2024 to create a military alliance in the Armenia-Greece-France-India format.

Pashinyan against the CSTO

Pashinyan, in an interview with France 24 TV channel on February 23, 2024, announced the freezing of Armenia’s participation in the CSTO. The Armenian prime minister also refused to go to the CSTO summit in Minsk. Pashinyan said on March 12 that if he does not receive answers to his questions, then Armenia will completely leave the CSTO. Of course, such behavior of a CSTO ally causes Moscow’s discontent. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that if Armenia moves towards the West, then Russia will be forced to take appropriate steps. The US Department of State interpreted these words as a “threat to Armenia”.

“We understand that the US and the West as a whole have been using the tactic of treating countries and peoples as their puppets on a string not just for decades, but for centuries by hiding behind good intentions,” Spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova said.

As for France, Zakharova accused it of being unreliable as a defence partner. She said that Paris has not fulfilled its military obligations towards several African countries. She also stated that being in the region, France collects intelligence information and hampers the implementation of agreements concluded in a trilateral format. If this were not so, France would not interfere with the implementation of the agreements reached at the level of the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2021.

Yerevan-Paris-Brussels axis

The further rapprochement between Armenia and the West is sharply accelerated today. For this purpose, the specialised platforms, namely, the EU-Armenia Investment Coordination Platform, the Parliamentary European Integration Committee, the EU delegation to Armenia headed by Ambassador Vassilis Maragos, etc., are working hard.

Another meeting of the Armenia-EU platform, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan and Director for the Eastern Neighborhood of the European Commission Adrienn Kiraly, was held in Yerevan on February 28. The further implementation of the EU Economic and Investment Plan for Armenia was discussed. Proceeding from the official report, “important infrastructure investments that will improve Armenia’s transport connectivity and diversify the energy sector” were considered.

That is, from an economic point of view, the EU is interested in Armenia primarily as a transit point. Therefore, during the meeting, the sides talked about possible financing of the Armenian part of the Caucasian backbone network, the Sisian-Kajaran road within the “Crossroads of Peace” project and energy. It is also important for the West to weaken Yerevan’s dependence on energy supplies from the Russian Federation. It seems that no one is going to invest money in the industry.

Two meetings were held between the Armenian government and representatives of global financial institutions - the IMF and the World Bank in March.

Yerevan is also trying to increase interaction with France both in the economy and in other spheres. Armenia cooperates with the representative office of the French Development Agency (AFD) in the South Caucasus. In terms of trade turnover with Armenia, France ($165 million) is almost three times inferior to Germany ($586 million). The Italians with $381 million in trade turnover and the Netherlands ($288 million) leave the French behind.

France slightly managed to get ahead of the Armenian-Polish trade turnover in 2023 with a volume of $150 million. Apparently, first of all, old imperial ambitions are pushing France to sharply intensify its presence in the region. The Permanent Council of the Francophonie has recently unanimously decided to grant Yerevan the right to host the Francophonie Games in 2027. Will Armenia become a French-speaking country by this time?

The following statistics testify to the vector of geopolitical aspirations of the Armenian current leadership. Over the past three months, the Armenian government has held 22 official meetings with representatives of the Western state, economic and humanitarian organisations, seven meetings with officials from Iran, India and other eastern countries and only one meeting - with the Russian side (22nd meeting of the Armenian-Russian intergovernmental commission). The European Parliament adopted a resolution on rapprochement with Armenia on March 13. Yerevan intends to develop a new agreement on expanded cooperation with the EU by May.

“The EU mission has become a factor of stability on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border,” Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said on March 17.

Multi-step Armenian policy

Such a sharply pro-Western course by Yerevan discourages not only Russia, but also Iran. Iran is not just one of the most important allies of Armenia in the region, but also shares a common border with it. Tehran is concerned about the rapid rapprochement between Yerevan and its worst enemies - the US and NATO.

This pro-Western vector will continue and intensify in the future. Most of the Armenian political elite is too closely connected with Washington, Paris and Brussels. The pro-Western NGOs and the media outlets are intensively working in the country. The simple promises are not always kept. Armenia is unlikely to become a full member of the EU or NATO in the coming years. The close economic dependence, including energy, on Russia and the EAEU will force Yerevan to maneuver among the West, the Russian Federation and Iran for a long time.

The Armenian current leadership is unlikely to completely shift to the US and the EU. However, the Kremlin, despite quite harsh recent statements, is unlikely to make a fundamental break with Armenia. Yerevan is likely to continue its rapprochement with the West soon by trying to maintain relatively good relations with Moscow and remain in the post-Soviet integration organisations.

However, the formation of another Western bridgehead on Armenian territory is unlikely to bring stability to the region. The US has always been interested in maintaining permanent tension, rather than in peace in the Caucasus. The policy of “controlled chaos” is attractive for the US in this strategically important region amid the current global contradictions between the leading powers of the East and West.

Further confrontation in the South Caucasus aggravates the situation for many important competitors of the US and EU here, including Russia and Türkiye, and makes regional countries hostage to the situation. Such a policy of escalation, despite the usual outwardly peaceful rhetoric, will continue.