EU mission - an attempt to delay Armenia's peace enforcement
Yerevan hiding behind other's back

ANALYTICS  27 January 2023 - 10:20

The news about the forthcoming arrival of the new EU mission in Armenia can be described in the spirit of good stories of the last century when the analogue world could still delight people with bright colours. Just imagine: the day is dawning. An old mustachioed billsticker lovingly decorates the streets of Yerevan with posters announcing the news: "The famous boxing coach Bob Muller is coming to visit us". The news was immediately repeated by the Armenian radio in the morning, Armenian boys, after throwing off the blankets, are beating their weary punchbags with new zeal.

One can compare the latest signals with notes of threats against Azerbaijan sent by the Armenian establishment, to the enthusiasm of these kids.

The statements of Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan have already been covered in our media and even received a reaction from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry. Yesterday Prime Minister Pashinyan himself, making similar statements addressed the governmental session.

"Expelling Karabakh Armenians from their homes is not the only goal of Azerbaijan. With these provocative actions Azerbaijan wants to fail the peace agenda, and the peace process and provoke a new war in the region"; "We continue to be consistent in advancing the peace agenda and no provocations should divert us from this path"...

These statements mean that Armenians could go for a military solution to the issue in these conditions, but because of their commitment to peaceful means, they will not do it. But they can...

However, continuing the sports analogy, there follows an amusing clarification in the vein that his trainer Bob Muller will step into the ring instead of young talent Aram Petrosyan: "I believe that the best way to resolve this controversy would be to send an international fact-finding team to the Lachin corridor and Karabakh. And we should work consistently in this direction. Overall, there is no alternative to the peaceful resolution of all issues in the region," Pashinyan said.

So, the Armenian side is threatening Azerbaijan with its coach. Okay, but who is the coach?

Monsieur has been banished?

It's not as simple as that. It has become commonplace to believe that France is the flagship of the EU's march to the Caucasus.

However, there are big doubts about how fully French this project will be. We have already written that the head of the European Commission is German, there will be many representatives of Poland and Baltic countries, which are closely connected with the USA, and in general, the implementation of the project will be closely coordinated with NATO. Given these factors, it seems likely that the French will be pushed back at the last moment. Indeed, if the US has already decided to facilitate a European presence in the South Caucasus, why give this to the French, who are playing a double game with them?

It is worth recalling Brzezinski's view, expressed in 1990 in a newspaper, that the winners of the Cold War were the United States and Germany, and the losers were Russia and France.

The American Democrats probably want to gain a foothold in the Caucasus before the Russian peacekeepers leave. This should be done before the presidential election in November 2024, with a new president taking office in January 2025. The mandate of the RPC expires in November 2025. If the Republican candidate wins, the chances of approving a military presence abroad will be greatly reduced. Another possibility is that the US and Russia are playing the same game and with their manoeuvres the US is trying to convince Azerbaijan that the extension of the RPC mandate is necessary.

Goodbye, boys!

The Western project can only postpone Armenia's peace enforcement. It cannot undo it. Because Azerbaijan's policy is proactive. All possible actions by Armenia and its patrons are calculated in advance and merely serve as a marker in the programme: 'if not, then'. The programming language is state-of-the-art. Azerbaijan's programme will be aimed at playing on the interests of world powers, exploiting their mutual contradictions.

However, Azerbaijan also has a powerful army. Despite this (!) Azerbaijan is determined to pursue a policy of political solutions to the problems standing in the way of signing a large peace. But it has a powerful army.

The tour of the legendary Mr. Muller will come to an end sooner or later. He won't be able to participate in the tournament instead of Aram, in view of the fact that "there are still many boys in the world who need help...".

Caliber.Az