Why does Russia deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus? To strike or not to strike

On March 25, the Russian state media announced that Russia Moscow had struck a deal with neighbouring Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. The announcement comes as tensions grow with the West over the Ukraine war and as some Russian commentators speculate about possible nuclear strikes.

In order to dismiss any further accusations and international condemnation, Vladimir Putin emphasized that the deal with Belarus would not violate nuclear non-proliferation agreements, adding that the United States had stationed nuclear weapons in the territory of its European allies for decades.

“Tactical” nuclear weapons refer to those used for specific gains on the battlefield rather than those with the capacity to wipe out cities. It is unclear how many such weapons Russia has given it is an area still shrouded in Cold War secrecy. However, the development was significant since Russia had until now been proud that, unlike the United States, it did not deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders.

According to the deal, Russia will start a training program for Belarus service members on April 3, while in July 2023 will start building special storage facilities for nuclear warheads in Belarus, without specifying when weapons will be stationed in the neighbouring country, which has borders with three NATO members — Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

The close partnership of Moscow and Minsk in recent years, particularly in the defence field, has been noticeable. When Russia launched its invasion campaign of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus allowed the Russian troops to use its territory in the first weeks of intervention, though officially denied being a belligerent of the conflict. From the Russian point of view, Moscow and Minsk need to establish a joint defence system referring to the idea of "one state".

Within this framework, in 2022, Russia stationed ten aircraft in Belarus capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons and transferred several Iskander tactical missile systems. It is noteworthy that this is part of Moscow’s game to try to intimidate NATO because there is no military utility from doing this in Belarus as Russia has so many of these weapons and forces inside Russia.

With Russia’s growing pressure on Belarus to join the war in Ukraine amid strategic losses of the Russian troops, official Kyiv does not rule out that the second front will be opened from Belarus soon. Notwithstanding, Alexander Lukashenka would like his troops to stay out of the war despite pressure from Moscow. Official Minsk apprehends that in case of its direct involvement in the invasion of Ukraine, the country will face severe repercussions regarding additional sanctions.

Although Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, it is unlikely that the control over these weapons will be transferred to the local military. This should not come as a surprise, given that the US also refrained from transferring control over nuclear warheads to its partners within NATO. Moreover, Russia's deployment of a tactical nuclear weapon in Belarus does not contradict the non-proliferation treaty. During the Cold War era, the US and the Soviet Union agreed to formulate a "Nuclear Sharing" concept which allowed the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in partner countries’ territories.

Nevertheless, the US Defence Department criticizes Russia's reference to the conception, as the pretext of deploying weapons in Belarus cannot be compared to the realities of the Cold war era. The main point of the US is that it strictly monitors the controlling issue of nuclear weapons stationed abroad, namely in Europe. Therefore, the know-how training of Belarus servicemen in Russia and the building of storage facilities suggest that Moscow's intentions contradict the general idea of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Hence, the growing casualties in Ukraine and the stalemate of the Russian forces to advance in critically important directions of the frontline could boost Moscow's reliance on nuclear weapons and increase the probability of a nuclear strike against the Ukraine forces. However, for such a brutal action, the Kremlin must bear the severe consequences of it.