Warming Azerbaijan-Iran relations and Trump’s first deal with Ukraine Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team of Caliber.Az has prepared a new episode of the program "Sobitiya" (Events) with Murad Abiyev, which covers the week’s top news related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan

This week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid an official visit to Baku. From the outset, the visit was seen as a major step toward warming Azerbaijani-Iranian relations.

It is reasonable to assume that this development stems from Iran’s weakened position along its external frontiers—caused by the defeat of its proxies in Lebanon and Syria, continued U.S. attacks on Houthi forces in Yemen, and the looming threat of joint American-Israeli strikes directly on Iranian territory. These factors have strengthened the moderate faction within Iran’s political elite, which Pezeshkian represents. The goal of this faction is to preserve the Islamic Republic intact and shield it from all forms of threats—starting with securing good relations with neighbouring countries.

The factor of the South Azerbaijanis—who, alongside Persians, form the most influential and populous ethnic group in Iran—has long stirred a sense of jealousy in Tehran toward our country. In the long term, this sentiment is unlikely to disappear. However, now that Iran is facing an existential threat, it appears that Tehran has come to realise that the Azerbaijani factor is not an obstacle, but rather a resource that can be effectively utilised.

Just like the Iranians, we too need transparent, trust-based relations. A significant step toward that ideal was taken by the Azerbaijani and Iranian leaders during their meeting in Baku.

Pezeshkian’s visit followed a very full agenda. The two sides signed a series of agreements, held meetings in both narrow and expanded formats, and concluded with a business forum. Throughout all these events, a consistent theme was the commitment to the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference. Ilham Aliyev and Masoud Pezeshkian expressed their intention to strengthen cooperation in key sectors.

Particular emphasis was placed on infrastructure projects—especially the development of the North–South Transport Corridor, as well as the strategic importance of the Araz Corridor, which will link mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan via Iran. According to President Aliyev, this corridor has the potential to evolve into a major international transport route connecting Asia, Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Mediterranean.

Masoud Pezeshkian also highlighted the strategic importance of both countries as transport hubs linking East and West, North and South. At the end of his speech at the business forum, the Iranian president switched to Azerbaijani and recited a few verses by Shahriyar—fittingly, on the theme of separation.

Naturally, this gesture was driven primarily by pragmatism. However, it is crucial that we properly appreciate its significance: it reflects the fact that our country has become a sufficiently influential player on the global stage to be the recipient of such a heartfelt address.

Ukraine - Russia

Amid gruelling battles on the front lines and ongoing diplomatic tension, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day ceasefire from May 7 to 9 in honour of Victory Day. The initiative was met with little enthusiasm in both Kyiv and Washington, which—starting with the meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the Vatican—have been showing signs of a closer alignment.

The first tangible demonstration of this rapprochement came with the signing of an agreement granting the United States access to part of Ukraine’s natural resources—specifically, the much-discussed deal on rare earth metals. To be precise, the agreement covers not only rare earths but also other resources, including oil and gas. Ownership of these resources remains with Ukraine, although the U.S. now holds the right to joint access and development.

The profits from resource development will be directed into a special fund dedicated to the reconstruction of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government emphasises that for the first ten years of the investment fund’s operation, all profits will be fully reinvested into the Ukrainian economy. After that period, the profits will be distributed equally between the partners.

Commentators note that Kyiv succeeded in securing more favourable terms compared to the original version of the agreement. Notably, the aid provided by the Biden administration was not classified as debt—something Trump had initially insisted upon. Furthermore, the agreement allows for the provision of U.S. military equipment, particularly air defence systems, as contributions to the investment fund—something that could serve as a deterrent for Moscow.

In connection with the deal, Washington also formally recorded a shift in Trump’s stance on the war in Ukraine for the first time. A press release published on the U.S. Treasury Department's website stated that the agreement was signed “in recognition of the significant financial and material assistance the American people have provided to Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s full-scale invasion.” This marks a notable change, as the Trump administration had previously refrained from making such statements.

The document does not contain explicit security guarantees for Ukraine. However, the very fact that it bears the signature of the United States already implies a degree of protection for America’s economic interests.

In any case, both Washington and Kyiv have reasons to be satisfied. On the one hand, the agreement showcases Trump’s deal-making style—indeed, it marks the first significant deal he has concluded since taking office.

On the other hand, it can be regarded as a diplomatic victory for Ukraine. Kyiv managed to secure more favourable terms from Washington by leveraging Trump’s need to showcase a tangible achievement within the first 100 days of his presidency. This may well be Ukraine’s most significant diplomatic success in the three years since the war began. The only question that remains is whether it will be used wisely.

Canada

Canada rarely makes it to the top headlines, but this time it has managed to do so. The reason lies in a decision that greatly displeased Trump—and, in fact, directly challenged him. The governing Liberal Party, led by current Prime Minister Mark Carney, won the snap parliamentary elections. Now, Carney and his team will be tasked with forming a government.

Carney built his election campaign as a direct counter to Trump’s plans to incorporate Canada into the United States and his tariff war against Canada. In this sense, Trump inadvertently helped the Liberals, as they had long discredited themselves with a decade of failed economic policies. The anti-Trump platform allowed them to avoid addressing the most pressing issues facing citizens.

Canadians didn’t vote for the Liberals, but rather against America, especially considering that Carney’s main rival, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, is essentially Canada’s embodiment of Trump. He mimics Trump’s mannerisms and adopts similar positions. This, of course, only applies to domestic issues in Canada, and has no bearing on approval of Trump’s foreign policy. However, the association with the hostile Trump has firmly taken root. Interestingly, this association once worked in Poilievre's favor—back in January, the Conservatives led the Liberals by twenty points. But after Trump took office, announced a trade war with Canada, and even openly urged Canadians to vote for the Conservatives, the outcome of the election was effectively decided.

The victory of the global liberal camp in Canada greatly pleased European globalists, energising them to join forces with the Canadians in their struggle against revolutionary Washington. How successful they will be remains to be seen, but what is certain is that Trump now faces a serious source of discomfort right at his doorstep in the form of Carney.