Baku–Yerevan: On the path to peace via Washington Caliber.Az weekly review

The Caliber.Az editorial team presents the latest episode of the program "Sobitiya" (Events) with Murad Abiyev, covering the most important news of the week about Azerbaijan and beyond.

This episode is both traditional and unique. Traditional, because it’s released as usual on Sunday. Unique, because it focuses entirely on a single story. And what a story it is!

On August 8, a historic event took place in Washington. Many of you probably stayed up late watching it live. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, with the participation of U.S. President Donald Trump, signed a joint declaration outlining not only the key elements of a future peace agreement but also the framework for peaceful coexistence between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

To go into more detail, the parties first confirmed the initialing of the peace agreement text by the foreign ministers, which also took place in Washington. The text is now officially agreed upon and is no longer subject to changes.

Next, the parties also witnessed the signing by the foreign ministers of a joint appeal to the OSCE to officially close the Minsk process and its related structures. Let me remind you that this was one of Baku’s two preconditions. We will discuss the second precondition in more detail later, but for now, it’s important to familiarize yourself with the other points of the declaration.

The parties confirmed the importance of opening communication routes to ensure internal, bilateral, and international transport connections between the two countries, which implies an agreement on the opening of the Zangezur Corridor. The declaration states that Yerevan will cooperate with the United States and mutually agreed third parties to establish a framework for a transport project within the territory of the Republic of Armenia. The project carries a bold and symbolic name — the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity," or TRIPP for short.

The parties acknowledged the necessity of embarking on a path toward a bright future, free from the legacy of past conflicts, in accordance with the UN Charter and the 1991 Almaty Declaration. Finally, they affirmed the establishment of conditions for building good-neighborly relations based on the inviolability of international borders and the inadmissibility of using force to acquire territory following the end of the conflict that caused immense human suffering.

“Where is the Armenian Constitution here, the need to amend which Baku has been talking about for so long?” some skeptics—always looking for something to criticize—will surely ask, or are already asking. I can even imagine how eagerly they’re typing out their doubts, claiming that since there’s no mention of changes to the Armenian constitution, the peace agreement won’t be signed.

I have bad news for you. First of all, no one ever said that changes to the Armenian Constitution are guaranteed. This indeed remains a major obstacle on the path to peace, if only because it depends not just on the Armenian authorities but, to a greater extent, on the entire Armenian people, who must express their opinion in a referendum. And as we know, large masses of people often tend to act on impulse rather than rational motives.

And that is precisely why the peace agreement was not signed, but only initialed. In other words, if it weren’t for this obstacle, it’s reasonable to assume that the peace treaty could have been signed as early as yesterday.

The second piece of bad news for the skeptics is that the declaration’s text acknowledges the need, after the peace agreement has been initialed, to “take further steps toward the signing and ratification of the mentioned agreement.” This means one of the key conditions for signing the final peace agreement—the necessity of amending the Armenian Constitution—is clearly confirmed.

And here we come to a very important nuance—namely, the involvement of the United States in this final peace initiative. Once again, the naysayers started shrieking that Baku betrayed its own principle that negotiations must be strictly bilateral. But they’re missing the point. The negotiations leading up to this historic Washington meeting were indeed bilateral. What the parties brought to the Washington table regarding the peace agreement was discussed without intermediaries. The United States did not act as a mediator but as a key factor that made it possible to bring the long negotiation process to its final chord.

In fact, there is only one aspect of the settlement in which the United States is directly involved — the Zangezur Corridor. However, and here is the third piece of bad news for the critics, this particular point is not part of the peace agreement itself.

Here’s why it was so important to involve the United States both in the issue of the Zangezur Corridor and more broadly as the third party to this historic declaration. For Armenian society to vote in favor of peace and relinquish territorial claims on Azerbaijan, it needs the endorsement of a great power with authoritative weight. Otherwise, there’s a strong chance that, driven by a spirit of defiance, they won’t support constitutional amendments. Their reasoning might go something like this: “Azerbaijan wants peace at gunpoint. We were defeated on the battlefield, but our pride cannot be taken away. In mind, heart, and law, we will never give up Karabakh.” This stance isn’t very admirable—and more importantly, it’s ineffective. In this case, Baku can simply shrug and say, “If you don’t want peace, that’s your choice.” However, with truly strategic, state-level thinking, Azerbaijani leadership recognized the need to create conditions that would guide the Armenian people toward the right decision—because ultimately, the entire region stands to benefit.

And now, with the United States guaranteeing Yerevan’s sovereignty over the Armenian section of the Zangezur Corridor—and even more so, with the signing of investment agreements between the U.S. and Armenia—once these investments begin flowing into the country, an entirely different atmosphere will emerge. Against this backdrop, for the average Armenian, peace with Azerbaijan will no longer feel like an imposed burden but rather a long-awaited joy.

This reveals an interesting paradox: for Armenians to vote in favor of peace, that peace must already be tangible on the ground—they need to be able to feel it with their own hands. The involvement of the United States doesn’t guarantee the Armenian people will make the right choice, but it does help them recognize it. And as we know, politics is the art of the possible.

Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated that the Zangezur Corridor will be opened—and he has made it happen. In the end, everyone benefits. The United States gains both economic profits from the corridor’s operation and political advantages from actual geopolitical control over one of Eurasia’s key transport arteries. President Trump once again presents himself as a peacemaker, which adds weight to his case for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. Baku secures a safe land route to Nakhchivan and diversifies the Trans-Caspian Corridor with an additional, shorter branch. Armenia also gains transit revenues and investments from America.

Thus, U.S. involvement in this final act is a testament to the skill of Azerbaijani diplomacy. Baku did not stubbornly try to complete everything on its own. Instead, the process was brought to a point where it became necessary to symbolically attract the attention and participation of a world power. It should be noted, however, that America in 2025 is not the America of Biden and Blinken. Donald Trump possesses the political will and clear-headedness to duly appreciate the just demands and monumental efforts of the Azerbaijani leadership in achieving this settlement.

This was clearly evident in the way the leaders interacted—warmly, casually, and openly expressing mutual admiration. Trump rarely communicates like this with anyone else. During the conversation, he also gratefully recalled how President Aliyev had expressed his desire and hope for Trump’s election as U.S. president as early as the summer of 2024.

The Memorandum of Understanding signed between Aliyev and Trump covers the following key areas: regional connectivity—including energy, trade, and transit; economic investments, notably in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure; and security cooperation, including defense supplies and joint efforts in counterterrorism.

The strategic partnership between the United States and Azerbaijan signals the arrival of American technology and investments into our country, which will help improve bilateral relations—not to mention the clear economic benefits.

It’s also important to highlight that President Trump signed a document suspending the unfair Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which had been detrimental to Azerbaijan.

In summary, I want to congratulate our viewers on this milestone. We have taken a decisive step toward peace and stability in the region, paving the way for an unprecedented transformation of the South Caucasus—from a conflict-ridden zone into a space of genuine creation, cooperation, and progress.