What does the US-Finland military pact mean for Europe? The forgotten flank

On December 20, the U.S. and Finland signed a new defence agreement granting the former broad access to the country's border areas with Russia. Unsurprisingly, official Moscow protested to a new forming alliance at its doorstep by summoning the ambassador of Finland.

In 2023, Finland officially joined the NATO bloc after embracing a "neutral stance" for decades, which triggered harsh criticism in Moscow. Indeed, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 boosted fears of Nordic countries like Sweden and Finland, pushing them closer to the Atlantic bloc.

The agreement lists 15 facilities and areas in Finland to which the U.S. military will have unimpeded access and where it can also store military equipment and ammunition, including four air bases and a military port. The U.S. has similar agreements with many countries in Eastern Europe.

In line with other U.S. agreements, NATO treaty rules exempting military pay from local taxation also apply to troops on missions in Finland. Hence, the U.S. now has a network of defence cooperation agreements that stretch from northern to southern Europe and from the Norwegian Sea to the Black Sea, providing security and stability to the continent.

NATO’s Nordic enlargement marks the first time in modern history when all Northern European states will be members of the same alliance with mutually binding security obligations—and it is taking place at an opportune moment. The nation of 5.6 million shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia that makes up a significant part of NATO’s northeastern flank and acts as the European Union’s external border in the north.

Although Finland became a full member, Sweden’s membership bid is still pending due to existing political disputes in Türkiye with NATO partners. However, many are optimistic that Ankara will give the green light to membership once the U.S. Congress approves the sales of additional F16 fighter jets to Türkiye.

Following the recent enlargement, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused NATO of having "dragged" Finland into the bloc and announced the creation of a new military district near Finland's border. Meanwhile, Finland has accused Russia of channelling migrants towards its territory in a "hybrid operation" and has temporarily closed all its border crossings with its eastern neighbour.

In this vein, Finnish lawmakers must still approve the recent pact, which is significant for Finland's defence and security. Although American troops are allowed a permanent presence and regular exercises in Finland, there are no plans to establish permanent U.S. military bases in Finland.

NATO’s enlargement toward Russia and continuous support of Ukraine stems from the point that Moscow may not stop in Ukraine but will keep going deep inside Europe. Nevertheless, official Moscow claims that Russia has no reason, no interest, no geopolitical interest, neither economic, nor political, nor military, to fight with NATO countries as Moscow does not have any territorial claims in NATO countries.

On the other hand, Finland significantly increased defence expenditures shortly after becoming a NATO member and spent around $143 million building barrier fences along Finland's eastern border with Russia, which used to have few security protections.

Consequently, Finland’s activities in Russian borders and NATO buildups will not go unanswered. In response, Russia would start militarizing the regions close to the Finnish border, thus creating another source of confrontation. Moreover, shortly after the deal, Putin announced the creation of a new district within Russia's military near Finland.

Indeed, in the Arctic, NATO has lacked a clear strategy, but this might be changing. As such, NATO has been stepping up its activities in the region through, for instance, military exercises such as Trident Juncture and Cold Response held in Norway and the Joint Forces Command Norfolk.

Seemingly, NATO is keen to increase the security of maritime critical infrastructure in Northern Europe. The safe maritime infrastructure means safe exports of fossil fuels to other European countries amid Russia's depleting exports.

For example, Norway is the largest gas supplier to Europe, and its gas pipeline networks run through the North Sea. The new military pact with Finland is expected to enhance NATO’s grip on the northern flank and exert more influence over Russia amid the ongoing devastating war in Ukraine.