Poland's controversial stance, protests in Georgia and battle for Syria’s Aleppo Weekly review by Caliber.Az  

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” (“Events”) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, covering the top news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

It seems that the triumph of Azerbaijan as the host of the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) continues unsettling certain Western players. 

During his visit to Armenia, Polish President Andrzej Duda visited the so-called border with Azerbaijan near Karki village, which remains under Armenian occupation. There, he met with representatives of the so-called civilian mission, which in reality functions as the EU spying operation. Considering the fact that this mission fosters artificial tension, any visit of this level only contributes to increasing distrust between Azerbaijan and Armenia.  

Besides his visit to the border, the Polish president also gave an extensive comment to Armenian journalists, in which he implied that the EU mission was preventing shelling of the border from the Azerbaijani side, effectively accusing Azerbaijan of armed provocations. Following the incident, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned the Polish chargé d'Affaires in Baku. 

"A strong protest was expressed to the diplomat regarding the actions of the Polish leader, and it was emphasised that the EU mission is being used as a tool against Azerbaijan, contrary to its declared goals of promoting regional stability and building trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia," the ministry stated. 

Some parts of the Western establishment do not want progress in negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. 

Poland's actions fit perfectly into this scheme. Clearly, the Polish current leadership believes that it is more beneficial to align with the often short-sighted tactics of major powers, rather than building strategic relations with Azerbaijan. Time will tell how correct they were in their calculations. At the same time, the Europeans’ actions directly reflect the trend of accelerated militarisation of Armenia. Caliber.Az reported earlier this week that Armenia is intensifying its rearmament efforts and preparing for a new war with Azerbaijan. 

Among other factors, there is the construction of fortress bastions under the guidance of French instructors on the Armenian side of the so-called border, interconnected by underground tunnels. All this clearly indicates that Armenia is preparing a foothold for possible offensive actions against Azerbaijan. It seems that someone has whispered in Pashinyan's ear, suggesting that a small victorious war will boost his ratings and help him win the next election. In reality, if he follows this logic, a very different fate awaits him. There is a high likelihood that this time, the "Iron Fist" will drive Armenian soldiers to storm the prime minister's residence. 

Georgia 

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has said that the Georgian government decided to suspend discussions with the EU regarding the opening of accession talks until 2028. Kobakhidze made these remarks during a briefing, where he also added that Georgia will refuse all EU budgetary grants until 2028. This decision carries immense symbolic significance.

After the Georgian parliament passed the foreign agent law, the EU decided to freeze membership talks, manipulating this issue and presenting it as a coveted prize for Georgia. Now, Georgia is sending a message to Europe that the foundation of negotiations should be based on respect, not on mercy. Moreover, the refusal of grants is aimed at halting programmes that effectively entice Georgian youth with the European liberal agenda, which undermines fundamental traditional values that are essential to Georgian identity. 

After the announcement of the decision, mass protests from pro-European integration supporters erupted in Tbilisi. It is possible that we are witnessing plans to repeat the Ukrainian scenario of 2014 in Georgia—specifically, a scenario of street battles, violence against the police, and other similar events. There is a possibility that provocateurs may open fire on the protesters, which could lead to an escalation of public anger towards the Georgian government. 

We hope that the Georgian authorities will take all necessary measures to prevent provocations and maintain stability, which is also of great importance to Azerbaijan.

Ukraine

Intense fighting continues on the Ukrainian front. According to the information, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the village of Kurakhovo in the Donetsk region, as well as a Russian assault on the strategically important village of Velyki Novoselky in the Zaporizhzhia region. 

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army has managed to halt the advance near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, the psychological battle between the West and Moscow continues. Informed sources told Bloomberg that London has provided Kyiv with additional Storm Shadow missiles. Following that, the biggest prisoner exchange between the sides was disrupted. Then, Russia launched its second major strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in recent days.

All this may indicate that the latest behind-the-scenes round of negotiations has reached an impasse, with both sides now raising the stakes once again.   It is possible that the Democratic administration in the US is trying to push the escalation as far as it can, to prevent Trump from reaching a swift deal with Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian leader Vladimir Putin stated at the CSTO summit in Astana that the next targets for strikes with the new "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles could be decision-making centres in Kyiv. In an interview with Western media, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky stated that if we want to stop the hot phase of the war, it is necessary to place the territory of Ukraine under NATO's protection that is currently under Ukraine’s control. 

He further clarified that after this, he intends to focus on returning the territories through diplomatic means. Zelenskyy's statement has already sparked a strong reaction in Ukraine and beyond. This is not surprising, as it marks his first declaration since February 2022 suggesting he is ready to end the conflict without reclaiming the lost territories.

Middle East      

A ceasefire agreement has been reached in Lebanon with the mediation of the US and France. The agreement includes a 60-day transitional period during which Israeli troops will withdraw from Southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army will be deployed in the border regions. 

Hezbollah will be required to move its forces and heavy weapons north of the Litani River, 30 kilometres from the border. The ceasefire benefits all parties: Israel, as it allows them to wait in a calmer environment for the inauguration of the pro-Israel Donald Trump, and Hezbollah, as it provides an opportunity to recover from the heavy damage inflicted by Israel. Meanwhile, it seems that Iranian proxies, as well as Iran itself, are not being given a moment's respite. Just as the guns fell silent in Lebanon, conflict erupted in neighbouring Syria. 

The opposition forces of "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" taking advantage of the weakening Iranian support for President Assad, including Hezbollah, launched a rapid advance from the north of the country toward Aleppo.      The city has been recently captured by the insurgents.

During the offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham actively deployed drones and seized a large quantity of weapons, including armored vehicles. Assad's army is retreating. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was formed in 2017 through the merger of the al-Nusra Front with several smaller groups. Prior to the offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham controlled parts of northwestern Syria. The goal of the new alliance is the overthrow of Assad. How events will unfold in Syria remains to be seen.