Is Fedorov being “groomed” as a new president? A new intrigue in Ukrainian politics

One of the most widely discussed topics in Ukraine’s political landscape in recent days has been the results of a new poll conducted by the Rating Group Ukraine. According to the survey, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, currently serving as ambassador to the United Kingdom, Valerii Zaluzhnyi continues to enjoy the highest level of public trust among Ukrainians, with 70% of respondents expressing confidence in him.

At the same time, the poll conducted on July 20–21 revealed a somewhat surprising figure in second place — former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who received a 65% trust rating. Former head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov rounds out the top three, with 62% of respondents expressing trust in him.

Meanwhile, the current head of state has a trust rating of 59%, boxer Oleksandr Usyk — 54%, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi — 23%, and former President Petro Poroshenko — 21%.

As we can see, the figures are highly indicative and objectively reflect the profound processes currently taking place within Ukrainian society, including the decline in the level of trust in Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which appears quite understandable.

For almost four and a half years now, Ukraine has been living under the conditions of a full-scale war, and during this period Ukrainians have endured challenges that would be beyond the capacity of many people: the destruction of their homes, the loss of loved ones, forced displacement, constant air raid alerts, and daily missile and drone attacks — demonstrating extraordinary resilience under such circumstances.

However, Ukrainian society is not made up of robots; it consists of real people, and their endurance has its limits. A person forced to live for years under constant stress inevitably becomes exhausted — psychologically, emotionally, and physically.

In such a situation, any miscalculation by the authorities is perceived far more sharply than it would be under normal circumstances. Zelenskyy and his team have made a large — if not enormous — number of mistakes, ranging from ignoring warnings from allies about the inevitability of a full-scale war with Russia to corruption scandals.

This picture was further compounded by the resignation of Mykhailo Fedorov, which was perceived extremely painfully by a large part of society already in such an emotionally charged environment. Protests were held in several cities, including the capital, where participants not only expressed support for Fedorov but also sought to demonstrate to the authorities that public opinion remains a crucial factor in Ukrainian politics.

As a result, Zelenskyy dismissed Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, who enjoys considerable respect among military personnel, as his replacement — thereby responding to public sentiment.

In this context, particular attention is drawn to the fact that after Fedorov’s dismissal, Drapatyi publicly voiced his support for him, stating that with the arrival of Mykhailo Albertovych’s team at the Ministry of Defence, there had been a “real attempt to change the rules” under which the military system had operated for many years.

According to him, it was only in recent months that genuine cooperation had been established between the defence ministry and the Armed Forces of Ukraine — interaction that had often been lacking before. This statement prompted a certain public response, as many saw it not merely as support for a particular official, but as a positive assessment of the reforms that had been launched.

In this regard, it is noteworthy — though not surprising — that Mykhailo Drapatyi received public congratulations from the former minister. “Congratulations to Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi on his appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is a breath of fresh air and a new source of hope in the fight of free people for freedom and justice,” Fedorov wrote.

Against this backdrop, reports emerged that Zelenskyy had offered Fedorov a “worthy position in the government.” According to Ukrainian media reports, one of the options under consideration was the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Technology. However, at the time of writing, the former defence minister had not accepted the offer.

This is an important political signal: if a former official is deliberately in no rush to return to government, it means he is leaving room for independent political manoeuvring. In this context, particular interest was sparked by Fedorov’s social media post, in which he directly referred to himself as a politician.

At first glance, such wording may seem insignificant. However, in Ukrainian politics, statements of this kind are rarely accidental and usually become a subject of discussion regarding possible long-term political ambitions.

That is precisely why there are increasingly frequent speculations that Mykhailo Fedorov could become one of the contenders for senior state positions after the end of the war and the holding of the next presidential election.

Of course, it is too early to discuss any specific scenarios at this stage. However, it can already be stated that Fedorov is gradually transforming from an effective state manager into an independent political figure of national significance.

Many Ukrainian political strategists are already pointing out that he was considered one of Zelenskyy’s closest allies, played a prominent role in the current president’s team’s digital projects, and contributed to the development of modern communication tools, including active engagement on social media.

This is why some have suggested that everything currently unfolding is merely a show aimed at implementing a “Succession” operation: the idea being that Fedorov is being deliberately presented through the media, social networks, and protest rallies as a political figure, thereby increasing his political capital so that he can prevent Zaluzhnyi from coming to power and, after taking over the country, avoid asking “uncomfortable” questions of Zelenskyy and his inner circle.

After all, it is becoming increasingly clear that the incumbent president has little chance of being re-elected, while another inevitable increase in utility tariffs and possible challenges to maintaining Kyiv’s viability could only further accelerate the decline in public trust toward Ukraine’s current leader.