Polish president’s short-sighted approach to Azerbaijan Does Duda pursue hidden geopolitical agendas?

Polish President Andrzej Duda has openly positioned himself as an adversary to Azerbaijan. Recently, during his visit to Armenia, he met with members of the EU’s intelligence and monitoring mission patrolling the Armenian territory along the conditional border with Azerbaijan. Shortly after, he made a lengthy statement to the press regarding the mission.

Here’s what he said, among other things: “The EU mission is here, with the task of stabilizing, working towards achieving an agreement between the sides of this conflict, and simultaneously observing what is happening in this conflict zone, in the border and borderland area.” He made this statement with remarkable confidence, but it was a clear distortion of the truth. The so-called "mission" plays no role in facilitating an agreement between the conflicting parties. On the contrary, its provocative actions, and even its very presence, only serve to obstruct the establishment of meaningful dialogue.

Let’s listen to Duda further: “When comparing what was happening before the mission’s arrival and at the time of its arrival, with the situation we have now, it is clear that in many areas where we were dealing with constant shelling, particularly shelling aimed at destroying infrastructure, these attacks have stopped due to the constant presence of EU representatives in those areas. So, at least from this perspective, we can say that the mission has been successful.”

In this instance, Duda is not just lying but doing so in an especially repulsive manner. Without directly naming Azerbaijan, he accuses the country of shelling Armenian territory. In fact, it is Armenia that, since the deployment of the EU mission along the border, has repeatedly carried out provocations, shelling Azerbaijani army positions. A notable example is the large-scale Armenian provocation in February this year, when snipers targeted a post of the Azerbaijani State Border Service, prompting an operation called "Revenge" in response. The Armenian position, however, was located within the EU mission's observation zone.

Overall, Duda’s remarks to Armenian journalists not only demonstrate a lack of understanding of the situation but also involve a deliberate distortion of the facts. The question arises: why? Until recently, Polish politicians had made efforts to maintain reasonable relations with Azerbaijan, avoiding anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric. It is also important to note that Polish personnel have been part of the EU mission since its launch in October 2022. However, at this stage, Poland has entirely abandoned any pretence of neutrality.

It seems that Warsaw is slowly shifting toward pursuing questionable geopolitical goals. It is no secret that Poland has serious issues with its neighbours and territorial claims against them. This is clearly evident in the case of Ukraine, a topic already covered by our colleagues. Poland’s actions appear to be less about assisting Ukraine and more about waiting for the moment when the country’s collapse reaches its peak, so they can annex western Ukrainian regions they consider their own. Is this the real reason behind Poland’s current military buildup?

Perhaps their goal is to turn the war in Ukraine into an endless bloodbath, exhausting both Ukraine and Russia and obstructing any prospects of a ceasefire, all in order to seize Lviv and other regions? And could it be that for this purpose, Poland seeks to provoke another conflict on Russia’s borders — in the Caucasus?

It seems that the democratic administration of the White House is complicit in this phenomenon — Polish colonialism. It is likely that the order to Warsaw for this symbolic gesture — a demonstration of loyalty to its suzerain — came from Washington. Azerbaijan was chosen as the target of this demonstration. However, there is a possibility that the Trump administration will adopt a more rational approach toward Azerbaijan and refrain from using "proxy agents" against the country. This will make it all the more amusing to watch as Warsaw abruptly changes its course.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan will not allow anyone to earn benefits at its expense. A cooling of relations between Azerbaijan and Poland is inevitable, including in the business sector. The Polish president has made a mistake. The sooner he corrects it, the better it will be for both him and Poland.