India bolsters military support for Armenia amid Azerbaijan-Pakistan alliance
Peace in South Caucasus at risk

ANALYTICS  05 March 2024 - 10:14

The nationalist government of Narendra Modi, which has made a name for itself over the past three years with its militaristic policy in the South Caucasus, is deliberately arming Armenia and becoming one of its main military suppliers. For example, Indian Defence Updates have reported that India has begun delivering Akash-SAM surface-to-air missile systems to Armenia. Last December, ANI reported that New Delhi would deliver Akash systems to Yerevan in the coming months, citing the Indian Defence Ministry and putting the order's value at $600 million.

New Delhi's desire to undermine peace efforts in the South Caucasus is clear. Undoubtedly, the Bollywood land is well aware of what the Armenian arms purchases are intended to achieve and against whom they might end up. This is the first point.

Secondly, it would be reasonable if the Indian side's plans included maintaining the security of the region, at least for the sake of New Delhi's economic interests, given that the South Caucasus lies at the crossroads of important transport corridors, which incidentally also run through India. And its failure to do so reflects (at least for now) its geostrategic goals in our region overriding its economic interests.

Conversely, by arming Armenia, India is jeopardising relations with Azerbaijan, with which it has longstanding diplomatic, trade and economic ties. Suffice to note that the difference in India's trade figures with Armenia and Azerbaijan is significant. For example, at the end of 2023, the trade turnover between Armenia and India amounted to about $384 million. At the same time, the trade turnover between Azerbaijan and India was $1 billion 107.9 million only in January-November 2023. The colossal gap in the figures we have cited shows the potential benefits of New Delhi's cooperation with Baku rather than with Yerevan. Moreover, India is actively buying Azerbaijani oil. By the end of the first half of 2023, India had purchased more than 1 million tonnes of Azerbaijani oil.

Azerbaijan, in turn, buys Indian pharmaceuticals, food and textiles. Therefore, knowing that the Azerbaijani side is unhappy with arms supplies to Armenia, India is jeopardising both the friendly relations with Azerbaijan that have been built up over the years and the established economic cooperation.

Third, the close allied relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan are not directed against India, contrary to unfounded arguments in the Indian political segment. Here, too, Baku has legitimate grievances against the Indian side. India remained neutral in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for only a few years after the First Karabakh War ended, but soon changed its position to be pro-Armenia. It is also important to recall that during the Second Karabakh War, India provided Armenia with considerable support in terms of information and reported on the events from a pro-Armenian point of view. For example, India Today wrote that "if the Armenians do not succeed in stopping the pro-Turkish mercenaries who are coming to Karabakh, they may find themselves in Kashmir tomorrow with guns in their hands".

Moreover, New Delhi appears to be seriously concerned about the growing Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan alliance, which also affects India's relations with Baku. So there are real conditions for Armenian-Indian military-technical collaboration to gather pace. What's more, this is also good for the image of India, which wants to get involved in exporting military equipment.

And there's another key nuance. In December 2023, Indian Foreign Secretary Subramanyam Jaishankar, speaking to representatives of the Indian diaspora after meeting Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov in Moscow, said that he would start negotiating a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union in January 2024. This suggests that India sees Armenia as a kind of bridge to the EAEU, as Armenia prepares to become a full observer state in this structure in 2024. In this case, India's supplying Armenia - Russia's closest ally in the CSTO and the EAEU - with arms should not, in theory, cause Moscow to question. Especially considering that Russia has actually frozen its military supplies to Armenia, preoccupied as it remains with the Ukrainian war.

And now a few words about the quality of the Indian weapons. Remarkably, Armenian media recently wrote that weapons, ammunition and equipment purchased by Armenia from India do not meet Armenian army standards or are of poor quality. Moreover, the Armenian army lacks the experience and skills to operate Indian weapons, according to military experts.

The leader of the All-Armenian Front movement and former defence minister, Arshak Karapetyan, has also recently spoken out about the poor quality of arms supplied from abroad, saying that the current authorities had cancelled some of the contracts he had signed to purchase weapons. Thus, Armenian media note, that the recent statement by Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan that "the army receives necessary weapons through purchases from India, France and other countries" is an attempt to mislead Armenian society.

Punit Gaur, an Indian political scientist and researcher at the Indian Council on World Affairs (ICWA), shared his views with Caliber.Az on the purpose of India's arms supplies to Armenia. According to him, the Indian arms supplied to Armenia are commercial.

"Are you aware of the $1.6 billion deal between Azerbaijan and Pakistan? In my opinion, just as the Azerbaijani-Pakistani deal is commercial, so is the Indian-Armenian deal. It has nothing to do with geopolitics," said the Indian political analyst.

However, he pointed out that despite immense pressure, Armenia supports India on Kashmir.

"And India values these relations. In my view, Baku also needs to review its policy on Kashmir. Azerbaijan is also important for India, especially for developing some logistics projects," the expert said.

Finally, let's stress that, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan never betrays its friends and allies. Azerbaijan fully supports Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and will continue to do so regardless of anyone's dissatisfaction.

Caliber.Az