Disruption on the Baku-Moscow line, the Khankendi summit, and Musk’s new turn Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team at Caliber.Az presents a new episode of the programme "Events" with Murad Abiyev, which covers the week’s top stories related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

AZERBAIJAN – RUSSIA

This past week was marked by another escalation in Azerbaijani-Russian relations, triggered by the brutal killing of two Azerbaijanis during an arrest operation by law enforcement officers in Yekaterinburg. There is no need to delve into the details — you are likely already well aware of them.

Let us focus on the geopolitical aspect of the issue. From the very beginning of the scandal, a chorus of voices from the international expert community began to suggest that Azerbaijan was deliberately trying to distance itself from Russia and, with the backing of Türkiye and the United Kingdom, had allegedly opted for an unjustified escalation over a matter that supposedly wasn't worth the trouble.

However, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that Baku merely responded — but responded not blindly or reactively, but in a deliberate manner, making it clear that Azerbaijan will always and everywhere defend its national interests. Nothing beyond that objective was done.

Could Baku have responded less harshly? Theoretically — yes. However, it is important to understand that the incident in Yekaterinburg is not an isolated case. Moscow's increasingly puzzling stance toward Baku has been building up for quite some time, with the starting point being the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft over Grozny.

Let me remind you that Moscow has yet to offer a clear apology, punish those responsible, or provide compensation to the victims' families. Such a stance has fostered an unfriendly environment — an atmosphere of open disregard toward Azerbaijan.

The killing of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg thus became another brick in this growing wall of estrangement. So there is no need to look for some major geopolitical manoeuvre on Baku’s part.

However, it is worth considering whether this entire story may have served someone’s interests in Russia. For instance, it could have benefited those forces — or one of the infamous Kremlin "towers" — that seek not only to drive a wedge between the two countries, but perhaps also to force Azerbaijani businesses out of the Russian market.

The Embraer tragedy may have been the starting point. No one in Azerbaijan doubts that the plane was downed accidentally. Yet, observing Baku’s principled response to the lack of a coherent apology, someone within the Russian elite may have seized upon this stance as an opportunity to fuel escalation.

Let us recall that by the time of the killings in Yekaterinburg, there had already been tentative signs of a shift toward normalising relations — one such sign being the evacuation of Russian musicians from Iran, which had come under Israeli-American attack, followed by a concert of gratitude held by those musicians in Baku.

And then — it seems — Russia’s war party, let’s call them the siloviki (security hardliners), delivers a blow to Russian-Azerbaijani relations by deliberately carrying out a harsh detention of our compatriots, one that tragically resulted in the deaths of two men.

Could Baku have turned a blind eye to this, so as not to play into the hands of adversaries and to preserve bilateral ties at all costs? In theory — yes. But it is clear that the reputational cost of remaining silent would have outweighed any benefits from preserving a relationship that was already in crisis. Azerbaijan is a strong enough state not to be deterred by the kinds of risks that only fragile states face when they attempt to assert their sovereignty.

And yet now, both Moscow and Baku have the opportunity to use this crisis to restore a constructive relationship. After all, it’s often easiest to rise to the surface once you’ve pushed off from the bottom.

ECO SUMMIT

The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit was held in Khankendi.

The event was preceded by another significant development — the state visit of President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who, after completing his engagements in Baku, also travelled to Khankendi to take part in the summit.

To recap, the ECO is an organisation comprising the countries of Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Türkiye. It was originally established in 1985 by Iran, Türkiye, and Pakistan, and was expanded in 1992 with the accession of the Central Asian republics and Azerbaijan.

The global and regional dynamics — particularly the pressing need to build large-scale transport corridors from Asia to Europe — are creating fertile ground for deeper cooperation among the organisation’s member states. This includes collaborative solutions in areas such as transportation, energy, economy, investment, and security.

Azerbaijan, leveraging both its geographical location and its rising stature on the international stage, is working to inject fresh momentum into the organisation. A major driver of this effort is Azerbaijan’s strong bilateral ties with each member country. These one-on-one relations also played a crucial role during the summit in Khankendi.

Among the key guests attending the summit were President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, and President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ersin Tatar.

The visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was especially symbolic. His presence sent an important message amid various speculations about Azerbaijan’s alleged involvement in the recent Israeli-American operation against the Islamic Republic. It is well known that Iran’s ruling elite is not a monolith; there is a power struggle between radical factions, primarily represented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and reformists. Pezeshkian can be regarded as a reformist and certainly cannot be counted among the IRGC supporters.

Given the weakening of the IRGC’s influence, it is plausible that Pezeshkian’s political weight and significance in Iran will grow. Accordingly, there is cautious hope that Iran will now engage more actively in integration projects involving Azerbaijan. The presence of the Iranian president at the ECO summit in Khankendi provides some grounds for this optimism.

UNITED STATES

Among international developments, the spotlight is on the United States, where both chambers of Congress have passed—and the president has signed—a massive and complex bill. Former President Trump famously dubbed it the "big, beautiful" tax and budget reform act, spanning some 900 pages.

However, not everyone in America shares Trump’s enthusiasm. For instance, under the new law, low-income groups will lose significant benefits related to healthcare coverage. At the same time, the bill foresees increased government spending in other areas, such as the defence industry. Observers point out that a plan combining tax cuts with higher government expenditure is likely to cause a record surge in the national debt over the next decade.

Elon Musk, once a close ally of Trump and a major figure in his campaign who reportedly spent hundreds of millions supporting it, has once again voiced his disapproval of Trump’s policies. According to Musk, the bill undermines the principle of effective governance.

However, critics — as well as Trump himself — claim that Musk’s anger is not really about government spending, but about his own financial losses, since the new law cancels subsidies for “green” industries, particularly electric vehicle production.

Even before the bill’s passage, Musk warned Republican lawmakers who supported the "big, beautiful" legislation that he would back candidates running against them in upcoming elections. Moreover, he launched another broadside against the entire two-party political system in the United States, promising to create his own party.

“If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day,” Musk wrote on X. “Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE.”

The prospect of creating a powerful third party is not very likely. American political tradition has consistently crushed such attempts. Typically, one of the two dominant parties co-opts alternative parties by siphoning off their voters and then neutralises their influence by adopting their rhetoric.

However, the attempt to establish an alternative party can succeed during periods of tectonic shifts in public perception of the political system — and such a moment appears to be unfolding now in the United States.