Armenia's stab in Russia's back will prove fatal
Moscow cautions Yerevan against missteps

ANALYTICS  06 March 2024 - 16:43

It seems that some clarity might be on the horizon in Armenian-Russian relations. Despite Armenia's attempts to distance itself from Russia, the latter wants to cut the Gordian knot in order to get clear answers from Armenia on its key issues "hanging in the air". This, at least, was the message conveyed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's harsh remarks to Armenia at a recent press conference at the end of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.

The main message was that Moscow is closely observing the statements made by the Armenian leadership and will consider them while formulating its own practical measures. In other words, Moscow is diplomatically warning Yerevan that its destructive policies may be met with concrete actions from the Russian side. In this context, Armenia should take into account the following Russian postulates.

Lavrov stated that there is no alternative to settling relations between Baku and Yerevan except based on trilateral declarations by the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Russian side regularly repeats this message to the Armenian side at various levels. This time, Lavrov also stressed that, unlike Yerevan, Baku "confirms its readiness to resolve all issues according to the trilateral statements made by Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia".

"Progress (in the settlement), in my opinion, will depend on how honestly the trilateral agreements are implemented," Lavrov said, adding: "Moscow is ready to continue to provide assistance both in terms of unblocking all communications in the region, as well as in terms of border delimitation and the preparation of a peace treaty".

It can be said that Lavrov actually confirmed Russia's interest in signing the Baku-Yerevan peace treaty, if not in Moscow, then at least with its participation, rather than the US or Europe. Moscow is therefore making certain efforts to steer its relations with Armenia in the right direction. Russia employs a policy of "soft power" when it comes to reminding Armenia of its responsibilities as an ally. In the same vein, Armenia's value as a Russian ally is regularly emphasized with utmost confidence. The affirmation that Russia considers Armenia an ally and seeks to enhance bilateral relations is widely attested in the public statements made by officials.

Lavrov's comments follow in a similar vein. "We regret that the Armenian leadership has apparently made a conscious decision to consistently pursue a line of deteriorating relations with the Russian Federation, blaming Russia for everything that has happened with Karabakh. This is not friendly," Lavrov said, noting that it was Russia that stopped the war.

To put it simply, with this reminder, Russia's chief diplomat was implying that Russia had saved Armenia from a total defeat. That is, the "salvation" of Armenia lies in Russia, not in the West.

It is obvious that recently the Armenian side has been messing things up by doing the West's bidding, and Russia has been accumulating a lot of justified demands, which Sergey Lavrov has expressed. For example, commenting on information that the Armenian authorities discussed the presence of Russian border guards at Zvartnots airport, the Russian Foreign Minister said that this fact fits the Armenian authorities' logic.

"I cannot confirm these reports, although it fits quite well into the logic of the positions that the Armenian leadership is now outlining," Lavrov said, confirming Armenia's stance towards Russia, which is far from friendly.

It should be recalled that the speaker of the Armenian parliament, Alen Simonyan, recently told a briefing that Russian border guards should leave Yerevan's Zvartnots International Airport, arguing that "Armenia itself will protect the country's borders".

Although the Russian Foreign Ministry described the Armenian authorities' outburst as "another example of unfriendly behaviour", there is no doubt that Russia will still have the opportunity to "punish" Yerevan for stabbing it in the back. Armenia, whose eyes are blinded by Western dreams, does not seem to be fully aware that it is playing with fire and taking a big risk. Lavrov's recent statements to Armenia show that Moscow's patience has already run out.

"We are waiting for official confirmation of what the final decision will be. The Armenians say that they will de facto 'freeze' in the CSTO, and if they want, they will de jure 'freeze' and leave. According to them, they are still interested in the EAEU because they get something out of it. The picture is not very positive. We want our Armenian colleagues and partners to decide for themselves how they will continue to live and mutually fulfil the agreements that bind us in various integration structures," Lavrov warned.

Moscow thus conveyed two important messages to Armenia. The first is that Russia does not intend to leave Armenia outside its orbit of influence. The second is that Moscow is demanding clarity from Yerevan on the CSTO and making it clear that this choice will determine Russia's further practical steps towards Armenia. Will Yerevan hear the threatening notes in Lavrov's voice? Time will tell...

Caliber.Az