How Putin destroyed the three myths of America’s global order
Commentary by The Japan Times
ANALYTICS 06 July 2022 - 17:45
The Japan Times has published an article saying that Russia's Ukraine invasion reminds us that the world order we have taken for granted is remarkably fragile. Caliber.Az reprints the article.
Every era has a figure who strips away its pleasant illusions about where the world is headed. This is what makes Vladimir Putin the most important person in the still-young 21st century.
Over the past weeks — and over the past generation — Putin has done more than any other person to remind us that the world order we have taken for granted is remarkably fragile. In doing so, one hopes, he may have persuaded the chief beneficiaries of that order to get serious about saving it.
Putin isn’t the first individual to give the “civilized world” a reality check. In the early 19th century, a decade of Napoleonic aggression upended a widespread belief that commerce and Enlightenment ideas were ushering in a new age of peace. In the 20th century, a collection of fascist and communist leaders showed how rapidly the world could descend into the darkness of repression and aggression. More recently, no one has smashed the intellectual pieties of the post-Cold War era as thoroughly as Putin.
We shouldn’t be surprised: In 2007, as Western intellectuals were celebrating the triumph of the liberal international order, Putin warned that he was about to start rolling that order back. In a scorching speech at the Munich Security Conference, Putin denounced the spread of liberal values and American influence. He declared that Russia would not forever live with a system that constrained its influence and threatened its increasingly illiberal regime.
He wasn’t kidding. At home and abroad, Putin’s policies have assailed three core tenets of post-Cold War optimism about the trajectory of global affairs.
The first was a sunny assumption about the inevitability of democracy’s advance. In the 1990s, President Bill Clinton talked of a world where democracy and free markets would “know no borders.” In 2005, President George W. Bush touted the ambition of “ending tyranny in our world.” Putin had other ideas.
He reversed Russia’s unfinished democratic experiment and constructed a personalistic autocracy. To see Putin publicly humiliate his own intelligence chief on television last week was to realize that the world’s vastest country, with one of its two largest nuclear arsenals, is now the fiefdom of a single man.
And Putin has hardly been content to destroy democracy in his own country. He has contributed, through cyberattacks, political influence operations and other subversions to a global “democratic recession” that has now lasted more than 15 years.
Putin has also shattered a second tenet of the post-Cold War mindset: the idea that great-power rivalry was over and that violent, major conflict had thus become passe. Russia has now waged three wars of imperial restoration in the former Soviet Union (in Ukraine, Georgia and Chechnya). Putin’s military used the Syrian civil war to practice tactics, such as the terror-bombing of civilians, that seemed ripped from earlier, uglier eras. Now Russia is prosecuting Europe’s largest conventional war in 75 years, featuring amphibious assaults, the aerial bombardment of major cities and even nuclear threats.
Violence, Putin has reminded us, is a terrible but sadly normal feature of world affairs. Its absence reflects effective deterrence, not irreversible moral progress.
This relates to a third shibboleth Putin has challenged — the idea that history runs in a single direction. During the 1990s, the triumph of democracy, great-power peace and Western influence seemed irreversible. The Clinton administration called countries that bucked these trends “backlash states,” the idea being that they could only offer atavistic, doomed resistance to the progression of history.
But history, as Putin has shown us, doesn’t bend on its own. Aggression can succeed. Democracies can be destroyed by determined enemies. “International norms” are really just rules made and enforced by states that combine great power with great determination. This means that history is a constant struggle to prevent the world from being thrust back into patterns of predation that it can never permanently escape.
Yet here Putin has done the U.S. and its friends a favour, because that lesson is sinking in. A week of Russian aggression accomplished what a decade of American cajoling could not — a commitment by Germany to arm itself in a way befitting a serious power. Democratic countries around the world are supporting the most devastating sanctions campaign ever aimed at a major power; they are pouring weapons into Ukraine to support its surprisingly vigorous resistance.
Most important, Putin’s gambit is producing an intellectual paradigm shift — a recognition that this war could be a prelude to more devastating conflicts unless the democratic community severely punishes aggression in this case and more effectively deters it in others.
We’re in the early days of what could be a long, brutal war. Ukrainian resistance might crumble; Putin might make himself master of a much-expanded empire. But early indications are that he may be on the verge of a rude realization of his own: Robbing one’s enemies of their complacency is a big mistake.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Armenia returns four villages to Azerbaijan, paving the way for peace in the South Caucasus Landmark accord
23 April 2024 - 09:14
|
2
|
Armenian PM's Moscow visit sparks speculation on bilateral relations Dilemma between East, West
23 April 2024 - 11:19
|
3
|
Mark Rutte seeks Türkiye's backing for new job A new pair of hands
24 April 2024 - 16:55
|
4
|
Air France plane safely evacuated at Heydar Aliyev Int’l Airport
24 April 2024 - 19:08
|
5
|
Bilateral relations, regional dynamics, & peacekeepers’ withdrawal Key takeaways from President Aliyev's Moscow visit
24 April 2024 - 14:07
|
Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan appoints new prime minister
25 April 2024 - 12:15
Political analyst: Good relations with Türkiye to be favourable for Armenia
25 April 2024 - 12:13
Iran re-evaluating its ties with Azerbaijan, Armenia
Baku - more important, honest partner than Yerevan25 April 2024 - 12:00
Balancing Turkmenistan – Afghanistan relations
Deviated approach25 April 2024 - 11:48
CENTCOM: US repells Houthi attacks on ships
25 April 2024 - 11:44
France proposes new EU sanctions to fight Russian disinformation
25 April 2024 - 11:31
Minister: Cooperation with Azerbaijan contributes to Hungary's energy security
25 April 2024 - 11:20
EU's proposed Russia sanctions to target oil tankers, ships carrying N. Korean equipment
25 April 2024 - 11:16
Azerbaijani Army conducts command-staff exercises to maintain combat readiness
PHOTO/VIDEO25 April 2024 - 11:10
Armenian politician slams recent burning of Azerbaijani, Turkish flags in Yerevan
Calling the action belligerent pity25 April 2024 - 11:04
Azerbaijan-Kyrgyzstan business priorities: Advancing trade, energy, transport initiatives
Review by Caliber.Az25 April 2024 - 10:51
Media: US sends long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine
25 April 2024 - 10:38
Georgia's pre-election turmoil
How the Law on Foreign Agents shapes voter sentiment?25 April 2024 - 10:27
India stands for closer cooperation in fight against terrorism at BRICS meeting
25 April 2024 - 10:25
Iranian president urges international courts to punish Israel for Gaza Strip operation
25 April 2024 - 10:09
Azerbaijan submits report on Convention Against Torture to UN
25 April 2024 - 09:55
Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan sign Memorandum on Cooperation in religious sphere
25 April 2024 - 09:43
US welcomes start of Azerbaijan-Armenia border delimitation process
25 April 2024 - 09:21
PM vows to boost UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030
25 April 2024 - 09:07
Azerbaijani, Turkish communities hold rally against fictitious Armenian genocide in Washington
PHOTO25 April 2024 - 09:00
EU’s 2050 net zero goals at risk as electric vehicle rollout faces setbacks
25 April 2024 - 07:03
World’s largest wealth fund issues inflation warning on hot commodity markets
real wildcard25 April 2024 - 05:04
How US F-16 fighter jets stack up to Su-35s sent to Iran?
25 April 2024 - 03:05
Belgian brewer whose body produces its own alcohol cleared of drink driving
25 April 2024 - 01:03
Milan becomes latest European hotspot to battle overtourism
No ice cream and pizza after midnight24 April 2024 - 23:00
Germany's position on Taurus remains unchanged
24 April 2024 - 20:59
German business activity increasing in April
24 April 2024 - 20:48
Baku to host space technology conf for Central Asian region
24 April 2024 - 20:45
Sweden’s plan for worst-case scenario
War spreading in Europe24 April 2024 - 20:40
President’s special rep: Karabakh can be called eco-region of Azerbaijan
24 April 2024 - 20:32
Azerbaijani energy minister holds talks with Algerian delegation on advancing bilateral cooperation
24 April 2024 - 20:28
China's Xiaomi selling more EVs than expected
raising hopes it can break even sooner24 April 2024 - 20:24
France proposes new EU sanctions to fight Russian disinformation
24 April 2024 - 20:18
European Commission disburses additional $1.6 billion in bridge financing to Ukraine
24 April 2024 - 20:16
Serb Member of Presidency of Bosnia & Herzegovina Željka Cvijanović invited to COP29
24 April 2024 - 20:12
UK to transfer Paveway IV bombs to Ukraine
PHOTO24 April 2024 - 19:59
Azerbaijani minister, Uzbek ambassador discuss defence cooperation issues
PHOTO24 April 2024 - 19:48
State reception commences to honor Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov
24 April 2024 - 19:40
MFA: Azerbaijan continues contributing to peace, security
24 April 2024 - 19:35
Kyrgyz president pays tribute to Azerbaijani martyrs
24 April 2024 - 19:30