A strange truce in Ukraine and burning Gaza Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team of Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of "Events" with Murad Abiyev, covering the week’s key news related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

AZERBAIJAN – ARMENIA

As the holy month of Ramadan approaches, I would like to extend my congratulations to all believers. May the Almighty accept your fast and prayers.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva paid another visit to Karabakh, where they reviewed the progress of construction projects and participated in the opening of several facilities, including the Chol Gala Mosque, which has reopened its doors after restoration.

In the village of Sarijali in the Aghdam district, the presidential couple attended the inauguration of a multifunctional administrative building, a nursery-kindergarten, and a secondary school. It is worth noting that in the first phase, 203 families are set to be resettled in the village, each provided with newly built private homes. Later, the head of state and the first lady met with residents who had moved into their new homes and handed them the keys to their apartments.

Speaking at the event, Ilham Aliyev recalled that for 30 years, Aghdam had been looted stone by stone by thieves and marauders, who then sold the materials in various places, calling it an unprecedented act of vandalism. "I have said this many times – Armenian fascism is the highest peak of fascism," the President of Azerbaijan stated.

Recalling the bloodless liberation of Aghdam, the president noted that the opposing forces had effectively found themselves under siege. He emphasised that Azerbaijan demonstrated humanitarianism by giving the enemy a chance to leave these lands voluntarily. Otherwise, the 10,000-strong, or perhaps even 15,000-strong, Armenian military contingent encircled in the region would have been completely annihilated. "In other words, the state of Azerbaijan once again showed humanity towards those who did not deserve it," Aliyev stated.

Over the past week, Armenia's prime minister continued to stall the peace process, focusing instead on internal disputes with the country’s former leaders. Pashinyan launched a scathing attack on Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan, and Serzh Sargsyan, who have been trying to pin the blame on him for Armenia’s capitulation in the Second Karabakh War since 2020. Once again, he invited the ex-presidents to a live debate, promising to utterly destroy them. "I will crush you, not debate with you," the Armenian prime minister declared harshly.

While all this was said in the context of his condemnation of the so-called "Karabakh movement," which his predecessors are attempting to keep afloat or at least relevant, Azerbaijan expects concrete actions from Yerevan—especially regarding constitutional reform—rather than empty rhetoric.

UKRAINE – RUSSIA

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) continue to hold several settlements in Russia’s Belgorod region, which they managed to enter earlier. This operation serves a dual purpose: on one hand, it diverts Russian reserves from key frontline areas, and on the other, it creates a buffer zone ahead of the expected Russian offensive on the Sumy region. No significant changes have been observed in the Pokrovske sector, but Russian forces have made noticeable advances in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Indirect negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, took place in Riyadh. The talks between American and Russian representatives lasted for approximately 12 hours, which could indicate either their technical nature or, conversely, prolonged difficulties in reaching agreements on key issues. Final statements suggest that the negotiators agreed to ensure the safety of maritime navigation and refrain from the use of force in the Black Sea. Additionally, reports indicate that the U.S. will facilitate the restoration of Russian agricultural exports and fertiliser shipments to global markets by working towards lifting all related sanctions.

White House reports and a Kremlin statement indicate an intention to move towards banning strikes on energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Moscow has accused Kyiv of violating the agreed moratorium and is now threatening to disregard it as well.

As for a long-term truce, Donald Trump suggested that Putin might be stalling its signing, adding that he himself, as a businessman, often employs similar tactics. This remark effectively became Trump’s first acknowledgment that diplomatic efforts have yet to yield the desired results. At the same time, it serves as a message to Moscow, implying that Washington sees through its maneuvers and remains in control of the situation. How things actually unfold will likely become clear soon enough.

MIDDLE EAST

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue military operations in the Gaza Strip, with reports of numerous civilian casualties. The past week has been described as the deadliest in the entire one-and-a-half-year war.

Meanwhile, on March 25, hundreds of Palestinians in northern Gaza staged a demonstration demanding an end to the war against Israel. The protesters, mostly men, chanted slogans against Hamas. It remains unclear whether this was a spontaneous event, the result of external efforts to change power in Gaza, or a covert operation by Hamas itself, attempting to rebrand its presence in the enclave.

At the same time, an intriguing development is unfolding in Syria. According to reports, Damascus plans to grant Ankara access to military facilities, including one in Palmyra, for the establishment of Turkish military bases. Against this backdrop, news emerged that the Israeli Air Force carried out strikes on these sites, effectively rendering the existing infrastructure unusable for short-term objectives.

Ankara and Tel Aviv have differing visions for Syria’s future. For Ankara, Syria should be restored within its original borders and regain strength with Türkiye as its key ally. In contrast, Tel Aviv favours Syria’s territorial fragmentation and its preoccupation with internal conflicts.

Thus, clear outlines of a potential conflict between Israel and Türkiye are emerging on Syrian soil. However, it is also possible that both sides—just as they have in the past—will reach an agreement, especially considering that a war between them is not in the interest of their main ally, the United States. Most likely, Trump will step in with some form of what he likes to call a deal.