Are US tariffs pushing Africa into China's arms?

Following US President Donald Trump's announcement of extensive tariffs on US trading partners, the small African nation of Lesotho has received unexpected attention, being hit with a 50 per cent tariff—the highest imposed on any country.

This decision, however, is seen as a foreign-policy misstep for the US, according to an article by Foreign Policy, as it seems to punish one of the few African nations that trades more with the US than China, at a time when China-Africa trade reached $295 billion last year, more than four times that of US-Africa trade.

Experts predict that the tariffs will have a disastrous effect on Lesotho’s export-driven economy, which in 2024 imported $2.8 million in US goods while exporting $237 million. The tariffs are part of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” policy, which punishes countries with significant trade deficits with the US This move also effectively undermines the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a 2000 law that gave duty-free access to US markets to over 30 African countries. AGOA was set to expire in September, and Trump's tariffs make it less likely that it will be renewed.

Economists argue that these tariffs are counterproductive and will harm US consumers by driving up the cost of goods such as jeans, ice cream, and chocolate. Lesotho’s main exports include uncut diamonds and denim sold to US brands like Levi’s and Wrangler. Other affected nations, such as Madagascar (facing a 47% tariff on vanilla) and Ivory Coast (hit with a 21% tariff on cocoa), will also face rising costs due to the tariffs.

Ironically, countries that Trump labeled as "worst offenders" may be shielded from the full effects of the tariffs due to exemptions for exports of oil, gas, and critical minerals. For instance, South Africa and Nigeria, which make up more than half of US imports from Africa, have large exports of critical minerals and petroleum, which are currently exempt from tariffs.

African leaders have not yet threatened retaliation, hoping to negotiate exemptions instead. Zimbabwe has even offered to remove tariffs on US goods, while South Africa seeks talks with the Trump administration. In response to the tariffs, Nigeria has already spent nearly $200 million to stabilize its currency as oil prices dipped due to market reactions.

The article suggests that the tariffs will push African nations to seek new trade partnerships, particularly with China, India, and the UAE. Nigerian Trade Minister Jumoke Oduwole stated that the country would explore new markets to reduce trade risks. The authors predict that China will benefit from this shift, especially after Beijing removed tariffs on goods from 33 African nations last year, strengthening its trade ties with the continent. As a result, the divide between US and China trade with Africa is likely to widen, leaving Africa more dependent on China's economy.

By Nazrin Sadigova