Armenia between the West and Russia Yerevan at a crossroads

Armenian opposition media hint at a possible thaw in Armenian-Russian relations. The reason for such speculation is that Yerevan has postponed discussions on a bill regarding the country's accession to the European Union (EU). The newspaper Hraparak links Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's gestures toward Russia to the strengthening of Moscow's positions.

"This is the reason for the postponement of the 'Euro-referendum' project by two months and the adoption of measures to strengthen ties with Russia, including instructions to restore inter-agency relations," the publication states.

At the same time, the issue of a lack of trust in the current Armenian leadership by Moscow is emphasized.

"Russia does not believe in Pashinyan’s sincerity, and the postponement of the visit by Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko is linked to the desire to verify the authenticity of his intentions and understand how cooperation will develop with Armenia's current government," the publication reads. Attention is also drawn to the upcoming visit to Armenia by State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, as well as the opening of a Russian consulate in Gafan.

Information about the opening of the Russian consulate in the Armenian town of Gafan, located on the border with Azerbaijan in the Zangezur region, first emerged in October 2023. Later, in June 2024, it became known that the process had been delayed. It is not difficult to guess that the Armenian authorities, initially agreeing to the opening of the Russian consulate in this region, later effectively stalled the process — against the backdrop of Armenia's rapid rapprochement with the West at that time. Since then, the rhetoric of the Armenian authorities regarding the willingness to pivot to the West has noticeably quieted down.

The reason for this is likely Moscow’s strong reaction to Yerevan’s overtly pro-Western aspirations, as well as Armenia’s undeniable economic dependence on Russia. Therefore, despite constant attention towards the West, Yerevan is reluctant to fully distance itself from Russia, attempting to sit on two chairs. Moscow, for its part, is limiting itself to "soft" pressure on Yerevan, refraining from practical measures while preserving its available financial and economic tools. Moscow’s leniency towards Yerevan is also explained by the fact that, despite public statements about the impossibility of remaining in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has yet to take concrete steps toward exiting this military-political bloc. Formally, Armenia remains in the CSTO, with Nikol Pashinyan delaying the withdrawal process under various pretexts. At the same time, the Armenian authorities have begun to show noticeable interest in participating in high-level Eurasian events, which is also worth noting.

Thus, the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, will visit Russia from April 17–18 to participate in a session of the CIS Assembly, and the Prime Minister of Armenia will attend the 80th anniversary celebrations of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9, marking the end of the Great Patriotic War. In Armenia itself, these facts are seen as steps towards rapprochement with Russia, aimed, among other things, at restoring interdepartmental relations. Given Armenia’s highly inconsistent policy, it is difficult to speak of any clear foreign policy direction from Yerevan. Most likely, Armenia will remain at a crossroads between the West and Russia, attempting to extract economic benefits from both sides.

On the other hand, the futility of European integration for Armenia is well understood by Nikol Pashinyan. It is possible that he will gradually rebuild relations with Russia, while simultaneously keeping pro-Western orientations on the agenda.

Vladimir Kireev, head of the analytical department of the Eurasian Movement and a Russian political scientist, holds a similar view and believes that Armenia has halted the process of severing ties with Russia.

"In recent weeks, it has been repeatedly emphasized that Armenia's exit from the EAEU is not inevitable. There was a phone conversation between Pashinyan and Putin, and it was announced that Armenia would participate in various Russian initiatives, including the May 9 celebrations in Moscow. Much was said emotionally in previous years, but formally, Armenia has not severed most of its political and economic ties with Russia. Now, the issue is that there will be no further movement in this direction. The reasons for these changes lie in the shifting global situation and a change in Yerevan's strategy. In practice, this means the normalization of relations, which no longer carry a tense character. Emotionally, the sides are still irritated with each other, but de facto, there is a return to normal cooperation. And this, by the way, is in the interests of both Russia and Armenia. The EU cannot accept Armenia into its ranks due to its geographical location, and Europe is effectively bogged down in Ukraine, whereas Russia, on the contrary, looks set to be a partner of the United States in the future. Therefore, although Armenia does not give up on its hopes for cooperation with the West, its rapprochement with Russia is inevitable," Kireev concluded.