Armenia: France’s strategic pawn in the South Caucasus

On December 15, a delegation from Armenia’s Ministry of Defence, led by Minister Suren Papikyan, visited France. The Armenian Ministry of Defence highlighted the high-level nature of the visit, with Papikyan being welcomed by a French honour guard and the national anthems of both countries played in his honour. In Paris, the Armenian Defence Minister met with his French counterpart, Minister of Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu.

Official reports on the meeting have been notably brief. However, media outlets emphasize that the two sides discussed the future of defence cooperation between Armenia and France. Papikyan stressed the importance of fully implementing previously reached agreements, as well as the signing of new agreements in the near future.

What lies behind the official statements? Just last week, a signing ceremony for the 2025 defence cooperation program between Armenia and France took place in Yerevan. Armenia's Ministry of Defence emphasized that the program includes "dozens of activities across nearly all areas of the armed forces’ operations." Experts also highlight that during joint strategic consultations, a plan for cooperation was developed in the areas of defence planning, joint exercises, consultations, and military-technical cooperation. Special attention was given to military education.

As Armenian expert Lilit Dallakyan noted, acquiring weapons is pointless without modernizing the army. She stated, "In Armenia, announcements about transforming the defence system and military education are not taken seriously. There’s little recognition that possessing advanced weaponry is futile without personnel trained to use it."

Dallakyan further emphasizes that the strategic goal behind the agreements being signed is to strengthen cooperation with the West and minimize ties with Russia. She stated, "Strengthening ties with our natural allies is crucial, especially in the current complex and fragile geopolitical situation following events in Syria. No one can predict how the Syrian crisis will end."

By "natural allies," the Armenian expert naturally refers to the United States and NATO countries. In her view, Armenian-French and Armenian-American cooperation should be seen as a unified effort, with any French military supplies to Armenia taking place with the approval of the White House. Recently, a meeting was held in Washington between the defence ministers of Armenia and the United States, Suren Papikyan and Lloyd Austin. In a Pentagon press release, it was emphasized that this meeting marked the first of its kind in 20 years, and the two countries reaffirmed their "strategic partnership" aimed at achieving "lasting peace" in the South Caucasus.

Following this, agreements between Yerevan and other NATO member countries are expected to follow.

"France, England, Germany, and Poland are actively discussing strengthening their armies, which is beneficial for us. We will not depend on a single partner and can sign bilateral agreements with several European countries, similar to Ukraine," Dallakyan stated.

She emphasizes that these countries will be eager to cooperate because "Armenia has already overcome the stereotype of being a strategic ally of Russia."

Almost simultaneously with the signing of the Armenian-French pact, an Armenian-Italian military cooperation agreement was signed last Thursday. This agreement includes initiatives for experience exchange, the training of specialists in various defence areas, and military education.

As for relations with Moscow, they are expected to be gradually phased out, particularly in the air defence sector. "Many military experts argue that there have already been instances where Russia failed to fulfil its commitments to ensure Armenia’s air defence," the experts note. Armenia's membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) also hinders the acquisition of strategic weapons, and Armenia must prepare for a gradual exit from this organization.

The latest step towards closer ties between Armenia and the West has sparked enthusiasm in the Armenian blogosphere and predictable sarcastic comments from Russian experts. According to the latter, neither France nor the United States can offer Yerevan fundamentally new security guarantees. At present, the greatest contribution from Washington to these initiatives is the Americans' development of a new military uniform for the Armenian army.

As for the current visit of Armenia's defence minister to Paris, it should be seen as the formalization of agreements reached earlier in the month, as well as an emphasis on France's role as Armenia's "guardian" within the North Atlantic bloc. However, observers believe that if the new Trump administration indeed pursues a policy of easing relations with Russia, the Kremlin may once again increase its activity in the South Caucasus, and France will have to abandon its ambitious plans for expanding its sphere of influence in the region.