Armenia may appear at the forefront of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict Or as a Russian oblast

Everything is going to happen so that Armenia's adventurist tricks against Russia, especially after Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War, will backfire upon Yerevan with a merciless boomerang. Amidst the growing anti-Russian sentiments among Armenian citizens and the purposeful policy of the Armenian authorities, who have been increasingly tuning on the West, it would be naive to believe that Moscow's patience is unlimited and that Yerevan can get away with anti-Russian demarches accompanied with accusations of betraying the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

Armenia, of course, is not Ukraine, and if Russia wants, it can press Armenia to corner since Moscow has both political and economic tools to make it happen. However, for now, Moscow is slowing down, trying to sober Yerevan up with warning messages through "Kremlin mouthpieces" and hinting at the unenviable consequences of Armenia's dual policy.

An unequivocal warning came from a harsh statement by Yevgeny Fedorov, a State Duma MP from the United Russia party, who is known for his objective criticism of Armenia. In an interview with NEWS.ru, Fedorov revealed shocking information about the "independent" "land of stones": according to Fedorov, Armenia seceded from the Soviet Union illegally, because it had failed to complete the necessary procedures, and for this reason, Yerevan has no legal grounds to be considered an ally of Moscow.

“From the point of view of international law, Armenia did not leave the USSR, which means it did not leave Russia as the legal successor of the Soviet state. For this reason, Moscow and Yerevan should build further relations based on this status. Armenia should be independent, but taking into account the fact that this is a disputed territory from the point of view of international law,” Fedorov explained.

Since 1991 it was clear, the State Duma MP says, that Armenia would flirt with NATO because any violation of the law leads to conflict. Suffice it to recall Yerevan's recent announcement that Armenia will participate in two military exercises organized by the US European Command - the NATO International Mission in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as Saber Junction in 2023.

It's hard to believe that the Armenian authorities didn't realise that their frivolous behaviour would anger the Kremlin.

And Russia's reaction this time was not long in coming, demanding that the Armenian leadership give explanations about its upcoming participation in the NATO joint exercises. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that Yerevan's refusal to hold CSTO manoeuvres on its territory did not help to improve regional security. In this way, Moscow actually brought to Yerevan's notice that its pretentiousness with the West is not safe for Armenia itself.

By the way, the thoughts of Yevgeny Fedorov, voiced last November, deserve special attention. At that time, he stated bluntly that Armenia was an illegal state. Even then, commenting to Ura.ru on the rallies against Putin's visit to the country, Fedorov urged to resolve the issue of Russophobia, calling Armenia "a dead-end country that depends on Russia for its survival.

"How to solve the question? Did Armenia secede from the USSR by law? No. Then it is an illegal state formation. We have to act on this basis," the MP suggested at the time, actually promulgating Moscow's vision for resolving the situation. However, against the background of all previous statements of the Russian MP addressed to Armenia, his new demand - on the need for Armenia's participation in "SMO" [special military operation of Russia in Ukraine], was distinguished by its radicality.

"Armenia should act in a special military operation on Russia's side," Fedorov said, arguing that if Armenia does not want to fight on Russia's side, Moscow should reconsider its relations with Yerevan.

"Armenia does not do this but demands something else. It means we have the wrong system of relations with this country," says Fedorov, who believes that Armenia should at least be more active in CSTO projects.

That is, it follows from the statements of the Russian MP that Moscow, although indirectly, has already made it clear to Armenia that in one way or another, it will have to clearly decide on its future course of development, or more precisely, to do it in favour of Russia. Firstly, Armenia is totally dependent on Russia, which means that it will have to follow Moscow's orders, especially since it is Russia that is in charge of preserving the remnants of Armenian statehood.

Second, Moscow is sending a clear message to Armenia that if it continues to flirt with the West, it will inevitably get dragged into a Russian-Ukrainian war.

Third, Russia is warning the West that it will not give up its position in the South Caucasus and will force Armenia to deploy a CSTO mission on the notional Armenian-Azerbaijani border. So, Yerevan is increasingly cementing itself on a hot seat …