"Armenia's accession to Rome Statute - spit in Russia’s face" Russian political analyst’s interview with Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has had an interview with the Director General of the Center for Political Analysis and Social Research, Russian political analyst, and publicist Pavel Danilin.

- How do you assess the accession of Armenia to the Rome Statute and, in general, the provocative attacks of the leadership of this country toward Russia? What conclusions does Moscow draw from Yerevan’s provocative policy?

- There is no doubt that Armenia's accession to the Rome Statute looks like a spit in Russia’s face. Therefore, Moscow negatively reacted to the actions of the Armenian authorities and regarded this as an unambiguously unfriendly step.

As for the conclusions, I do not think that they have not been made before. Everything is clear with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s position, so there is nothing new in his attacks.

- Pashinyan has recently once again resorted to openly provocative rhetoric by making a statement about a possible "withdrawal of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) from Armenia." What does the Armenian side hope by blackmailing Moscow?

- Despite Armenia's statements about withdrawing from the CSTO were made emotionally, i.e. "you helped Kazakhstan, but didn't help us". It was obvious that the situations were completely different and it was impossible to compare them. The internal affairs of Kazakhstan and the failure of Armenia to comply with the agreements concluded in Minsk many years ago are incomparable circumstances. Therefore, Pashinyan's statement about the CSTO can be called blackmailing of Moscow, just like his actions towards the US. I think that this is undisguised and rather stupid blackmail, which only pushes the Russians away from the Armenians. Today, we see this. The recent actions of the Armenian authorities and their general attitude are moving Moscow and the Russians away from the position that they have taken for a long time, supporting Armenia.

- The EU mission is operating on the Armenian territory. What is it fraught for the region?

- The presence of the EU mission in Armenia does not create any special threats, but it hardly serves to resolve the situation between Baku and Yerevan. I think that this fact can provoke Armenia into some stupid and thoughtless steps if it suddenly seems to the Armenians that the Europeans are on their side and are ready to support them in the conflict with Azerbaijan.

- In the current situation, is it possible to normalise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and, as a result, conclude a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan?

- At present, there is a low probability of concluding a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mainly due to the strengthening of the position of those politicians who are in favour of revenge in the conflict with Azerbaijan. Of course, there is nothing good, but this is a fact that we see now in Armenia.

- Moscow is still silently watching that Armenia continues transferring military equipment and weapons to Karabakh and refuses to withdraw the remnants of its gangs from the region. That is, should Baku resolve this issue?

- Moscow initially wanted Armenia to fulfill its obligations, including those upon previous agreements, to avoid a war in 2020. Now Moscow stands for a truce between Baku and Yerevan if the sides fulfill the obligations assumed in the trilateral format as this is in the interests of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. If Yerevan goes into the lead, hoping for the assistance of the US and Europe, then Russia is unlikely to be able to keep it from rash and stupid actions.