Armenian games in Abkhazia: First Georgians, now Abkhaz Kremlin’s grip tightens

The behaviour of the Armenian community in Abkhazia and its leaders may lead to such animosity towards them from a significant portion of the Abkhaz that it could escalate into an open interethnic conflict. No one likes those who complain about their neighbours to "big uncles," who are often seen as tattlers or whiners. Apparently, Armenian nationalists, who have started appealing to the Kremlin with complaints about the Abkhaz and demanding "protection" using Russia's repressive machinery, have forgotten such a simple truth.

According to the Telegram channel "Abkhaz Portal," the head of the Armenian community in Abkhazia, Alik Minosyan, whose complaint about Abkhaz opposition figures, demanding "protection" for Armenians, stirred interethnic tensions, is now hiding in Sochi. It is also reported that Minosyan has been outside Abkhazia since the first round of voting in the election for the separatist so-called "president" on February 15, 2025.

It is only natural that, due to the "inaccessibility" of Alik Minosyan, the Abkhaz began to question the other leaders of the Armenian community in Abkhazia. They were forced to defend themselves, stating that all statements made on behalf of the Armenian community were issued by Minosyan "in his own name, without consulting the community council, violating the regulations." Subsequently, information was published that Alik Minosyan had "retracted" his previous statements. "I believe it is necessary to make every effort to strengthen interethnic unity among the peoples of Abkhazia. In light of the above, I deem it necessary to retract the previously submitted statements regarding Bganba E.Z. and Vanaba Y.R.," quotes "Abkhaz Portal" from Alik Minosyan's latest statement dated February 20.

However, the machinery of repression and intimidation of the Abkhaz by Russia was set in motion by the Armenian lobby and began to spin rapidly. While the complainant and instigator of the Russian repressive apparatus against the Abkhaz, Alik Minosyan, was hiding in Sochi, the Investigative Committee of Russia opened a criminal case for inciting hatred and enmity with the threat of violence against Russians, Armenians, and Abkhaz who hold Russian citizenship and live in Abkhazia. This was reported by the press service of the agency. The case was opened under paragraph "a" of part 2 of Article 282 of the Russian Criminal Code, which carries a prison sentence of three to six years. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, "certain individuals" through the Internet no later than February 16 publicly called for the persecution of these nationalities, as well as mass repressions and other illegal actions against Armenians. It was stated that investigators would check Enver Bganba, Yuri Vanaba, Dmitry Ardzinba, Gennady Ayba, Gochi Pilii, and Masik Shakryl for involvement in this crime.

The staff of the Russian Investigative Committee found information on the internet and in the media that on February 19, several dozen people pressured the heads of rural settlements in the Gagra district (Armenian) not to participate in the elections. "According to media reports, among these individuals, the leader was Dmitry Ardzinba, a deputy and founder of the LLC 'Samshitovaia Roscha,' with participation from co-founder LLC Gennady Ayba and his son Said Ayba, Masik Shakryl, and other individuals," the press service of the Investigative Committee of Russia reported.

It is reported that the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has initiated an inquiry in response to "threats against the local Armenian population, the majority of whom hold Russian citizenship" — i.e., based on the complaint by Alik Minosyan.

Let us remind that his complaint about opposition-minded Abkhaz, including a recording that appeared on social media, featured a supporter of the opposition candidate Adgur Ardzinba, Enver Bganba (the nephew of the acting "president of Abkhazia"), calling for harsh actions against the Armenian community. After Alik Minosyan's complaint, Enver Bganba acknowledged the authenticity of the recording and apologized, explaining his remarks as "emotions." However, as we can see, this did not stop the persecution of the Abkhaz "opposition" by Russia.

The fact that the Russian repressive apparatus in the occupied territory of Abkhazia quickly began repressing opposition-minded Abkhaz based on the complaints from the leaders of the Armenian community raises many questions. After all, the Russian Investigative Committee has ignored violations of the rights of all other ethnic groups for years. People have long gotten used to the fact that the regular and egregious violations of the rights of ethnic Georgians in separatist Abkhazia have become a given. Yet, neither the Russian Investigative Committee nor other Russian law enforcement agencies responded in any way to the fact that, for years, ethnic Russians in separatist territories have had their apartments seized, Russian entrepreneurs have been deceived and killed, and Russian tourists have been beaten, raped, and robbed. Russian entrepreneurs, who were blatantly swindled and ruined in Abkhazia, fought for justice for years, but to no avail. At best, the response to complaints to Russian law enforcement agencies was formal replies. Yet as soon as Alik Minosyan "complained" about "threats to Armenians," the omnipotent Russian Investigative Committee immediately rushed to protect and "save" the Abkhaz Armenians, initiating criminal cases against activists of the Abkhaz "opposition."

The Abkhaz are largely confused. Those who have had conflicts with ethnic Armenians are simultaneously scared and possibly resentful but are keeping their emotions in check, trying not to express them. A natural question arises among the Abkhaz: if today the Russian Investigative Committee instantly reacts to Armenian complaints and has begun repressing opposition-minded Abkhaz, what will happen next? Especially if it's possible to install puppets at the head of Abkhazia who will be obedient both to the Kremlin and to the Armenian lobby?

Simultaneously, in an effort to "ensure the correct voting in the second round" for the "Kremlin-Armenian" candidate Badr Gunba, the Russian authorities began exerting blatant pressure on the residents of Abkhazia. The Russian quarantine service banned the import of mimosa from occupied Abkhazia, supposedly finding "California flower thrips" in one of the shipments. However, during the "off-season" in Abkhazia, the sale of mimosa to Russia is one of the significant sources of income for many Abkhaz people. It is openly stated in Abkhazia that the ban on mimosa exports could have been "staged" for the second round of the "election" to demonstrate that without "their" puppet at the helm of the separatist territory, the Kremlin would not allow any normal economic life. Achieving anything could only happen through a "man from Moscow." "Badr Gunba will call Moscow, and the mimosa will be allowed through," people discuss in Abkhaz social media.

Regardless of the results of the second round of the so-called "presidential elections" in Abkhazia on March 1, 2025, given the current trends, it seems inevitable that tensions between the Abkhaz and Armenians will escalate. If Badr Gunba wins, the process of "absorbing" Abkhazia into Russia and the appropriation of Abkhaz land by settlers will quickly be set in motion. This, in turn, may provoke desperate gestures from the cornered Abkhaz. However, if, despite the Kremlin's pressure and propaganda machine, the opposition candidate Adgur Ardzinba wins, it is certain that mechanisms of "economic strangulation" will be initiated against the defiant Abkhaz. And the mimosa issue will not be the only one—there will be a resumption of "disconnections and halting of payments." This is unlikely to generate any special "affection" from the Abkhaz population towards the Armenian community, which, through its influence, the Kremlin is clearly using to pursue the annexation of Abkhazia. Furthermore, a situation with a narrow margin of votes is also possible, which could exacerbate the confrontation in the separatist territory.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, exclusively for Caliber.Az