Armenian PM caught between "a rock and a hard place" Armenian PM’s difficult visit to Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who will pay an official visit to Moscow on April 19. According to the Kremlin's press service, it's planned to discuss topical issues of further development of the Russian-Armenian strategic relations and partnership. The process of implementation of the agreements of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on Karabakh dated November 9, 2020, January 11 and November 26, 2021, including measures to restore economic and transport ties in the region, will also be reviewed. 

It is quite obvious that Pashinyan is expected to have a difficult conversation in Moscow. Several factors testify to this. First of all, it is necessary to remind that Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan got a cold reception in Moscow on April 8, that is, two days after the rather productive and encouraging meeting in Brussels among Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, President of European Council Charles Michel and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. It was clear following the meeting that Armenia accepts Azerbaijan’s proposal, consisting of 5 principles, which is the main condition for normalization of bilateral relations. The sides agreed to create working groups dealing with the border issues and the preparation of a peace treaty in Brussels. However, Mirzoyan had a hard time during a meeting with Lavrov in Moscow on April 8 not only because of Yerevan's obsession to revive the OSCE Minsk Group. Moscow was "insulted" that it was not mentioned in the final communiqué of the meeting in Brussels. "I noticed that the Russian Federation was not mentioned in the communiqué issued by Mr. Michel after the meeting with the Azerbaijani president and the Armenian prime minister,” Lavrov said while criticizing Mirzoyan. “This indicates that for the leadership of the European Union it is more important to use the Karabakh issue to promote their anti-Russian sentiments, rather than develop what has been achieved so far,” Lavrov added. “It's sad."

It is noteworthy that on the same day, Lavrov held phone talks with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. Proceeding from the official statements, it was clear that Lavrov's conversation with Bayramov greatly differed from his conversation with Mirzoyan. It is clear that Azerbaijan and Russia have partnership relations as opposed to the Armenian-Russian relations, in which, one state acts as a suzerain while the other plays the role of a vassal.

However, not only this stipulates that Pashinyan will get a cold reception in Moscow. On the eve of his visit to Moscow, Pashinyan had a rather difficult conversation with President of the European Council Charles Michel, during which they discussed the process of implementation of agreements reached during the meeting among the president of the European Council, the Armenian prime minister and the Azerbaijani president in Brussels on April 6.

If we translate from diplomatic language into ordinary one, it becomes clear that President of the European Council, Charles Michel, wanted to know whether Pashinyan, who intends to visit Moscow, would not abandon the Brussels agreements there.

There is nothing to do but to sympathize with Pashinyan, as he found himself caught between a rock (Russia) and a hard place (the EU), due to Armenia’s subordinate position. Pashinyan’s recent statements in the National Assembly concerning the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict settlement show that he would like to adhere to the agreements reached in Brussels. However, Pashinyan understands that he will have a very difficult conversation today at the Kremlin's Senate Palace, the owner of which [Russian president] may dislike Yerevan's movement towards Brussels and the idea of the possible ousting of Moscow from the negotiation process by the EU. 

By the way, Pashinyan has purely mercantile interest here. As is known, Michel promised to allocate $2.6 billion to Armenia within the EU's Eastern Partnership Economic and Investment plan. The Armenian current government needs to plug the hole in the Armenian budget and support the exhausted social sector of the country. Yerevan understands that under current circumstances, Russia does not have resources to support two million population of Armenia and therefore generous Brussels seems to be a more attractive partner than Moscow. However, the latter has the levers of power to exert pressure on its South Caucasian province and the desire to keep the negotiation process in its hands, not allowing Europe to approach it. What will Pashinyan choose in the end? We will find out this very soon. However, it is quite obvious that he will fly to Moscow with hesitation.