"Azerbaijan destroys whole mechanism of Armenian game" Azerbaijani pundits comment on France’s provocation

It is obvious that if Armenia takes any action, then France will soon react. For example, France is going to submit a resolution to the UN Security Council demanding "the restoration of the Lachin corridor", deputy director of France’s Le Figaro magazine Christophe Buisson wrote. The French journalist noted that "the purpose of the resolution is to help the residents of Nagorno-Garabagh, who are on the verge of starvation because the Lachin corridor was blocked by Azerbaijan".

Moreover, he said that Paris and big regions of France will send a humanitarian convoy to Armenia next week.

What is France looking forward to? Should Baku be afraid of this provocation of Paris? Will not we see a new flash mob with a humanitarian convoy near our borders, a French one this time?

Azerbaijani political analyst Rasim Musabayov and Chairman of the Azerbaijani Centre of Analysis of International Relations Farid Shafiyev answered Caliber.Az journalist’s questions.

Musabayov said that France's provocation with a resolution in the UN Security Council is arranged with the expectation that Azerbaijan will finally let 20 trucks through, which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already driven to the Lachin border checkpoint. Moreover, the French decided to compete with Moscow.

“This is political and informational pressure on Baku, where Paris wants to mix up the Russian game, which consists of lobbying for the opening of both roads, but in stages - first to commission the Aghdam – Asgaran road. After all, Russian peacekeepers still control the situation, while the French and others are out in the cold and will be forced just to make some remarks,” the political analyst said.

Musabayov is sure that France is unable to push through any resolution in the UN Security Council against Azerbaijan.

“Even when there were fierce hostilities on the border in September 2022, the French could not agree on a resolution and even the text of their statement, although France chaired that discussion. Paris tried to do this at a meeting of the UN Security Council and during the 44-day second Garabagh war, but during the discussions, the UK and several countries of the Non-Aligned Movement blocked his project. I think that this will happen again,” the Azerbaijani expert added.

He noted that by demonstrating its possible initiatives (resolution, humanitarian convoy, etc.) to exert maximum pressure on Baku, Paris will more deteriorate relations with Azerbaijan and deprive itself of remaining ties in Azerbaijan.

“The amateurishness of modern French politicians nullifies the historical diplomatic achievements of this power. When France, during the war with Prussia (1870-1871), found itself isolated (it was not supported by England, Russia, Austria, or Italy) and was defeated, in response to the lamentations of the French, Chancellor of the Russian Empire Alexander Gorchakov remarked: ‘You behaved all the time as if only the French had pride. Do not be surprised now by the reaction of the neighbours.’ Supporting separatism and irredentism in different countries, the French think that such a fire is out of the question for their country. There are plenty of such activities on their own territory, history punishes stupidity and duplicity sooner or later,” Musabayov said.

In general, Chairman of the Azerbaijani Centre of Analysis of International Relations Farid Shafiyev shares Musabayov’s opinion.

“France is now the main driver of Armenian interests. Meanwhile, the fact that Azerbaijan fully controls the Lachin road is a radical step that changed the entire dynamics of the negotiation process.

“The Armenians and everyone who helps them in this issue are very concerned. Armenian officials thought that they would begin to work with Azerbaijan on a peace treaty slowly, while they would, as before, transport the military, equipment, and uniforms along the Lachin road. That is, they will continue supporting separatism in this territory and when more suitable conditions appear, they will return to the issue of "miatsum" [a campaign of the Armenians that features separatism, 'status', and 'independence' efforts in Garabagh),” Shafiyev said.

He added that such a model was discussed in Armenian circles - let's now recognise Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, and in parallel,  we will seek the "independence" of Garabagh through the help of third countries, various international platforms. That is, one action does not hamper another.

“Then Yerevan would say that it has nothing to do with it, that the population in Garabagh wants independence, but Yerevan stands for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. However, everything went wrong. Azerbaijan’s new tactics in accordance with which the Lachin border checkpoint was established, destroy this Armenian game, therefore, Azerbaijan is now under very strong pressure from the world Armenian lobby, pro-Armenian countries and politicians. A great impact on Azerbaijan’s political and political-diplomatic resources is exerted. However, Azerbaijan also coordinated its diplomatic efforts as much as possible on the UN sidelines, realising that new provocations may be committed,” Shafiyev said.

The political analyst is sure that no pressure, no articles in the press and political hysteria will change the reality that Azerbaijan created by liberating its territories on its own.

“However, such Armenian-French provocations in the UN can practically destroy the negotiation process, undermine its achievements, if any document, any resolution against Azerbaijan is adopted. Of course, there are few chances but one cannot say that there is completely zero. However, we will hope for the best and that Azerbaijani diplomacy will repel all the attacks of our enemies,” Shafiyev added.