Balkan crisis 2025: Serbia under external pressure From tragedy to turmoil

A new "colour revolution" in the Balkans? Why is there yet another attempt to change power in Serbia? Amid student protests and road blockades, Prime Minister Miloš Vučević has already resigned. What lies ahead for this Balkan nation?

Tragedy at the railway station

The background to these events is as follows. On 1 November 2024, a tragedy occurred in the city of Novi Sad – the canopy of the local railway station collapsed onto people. Fifteen people were killed, including 14 Serbian citizens and one from North Macedonia. Minister of Urban Development Goran Vesić, weeping on live television, immediately resigned, and the authorities launched an investigation.

However, mass riots erupted spontaneously right after the horrific incident, with administrative buildings in Novi Sad coming under attack. NGOs and the political opposition quickly took advantage of the public outrage.

The Serbian opposition, represented by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the Democratic Party of Serbia, monarchists, and nationalists from the Movement for the Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia, along with several other organisations, does not enjoy widespread public support. Nevertheless, the main driving force behind the protests has become students, who have long been influenced by numerous pro-Western NGOs. Lawyers, teachers, farmers, and others have joined the youth. One of the key demands of the protesters is the resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević.

On November 25, opposition MPs raised banners reading "Your hands are covered in blood" during a parliamentary debate on the budget. Later, when government members entered the chamber for discussions, opposition lawmakers escalated the situation into a physical confrontation.

On November 27, in the National Assembly, Natalia Stojmenović, head of the Green-Left Front parliamentary group, continued the same "bloody hands" protest by pouring red paint over the speaker’s desk.

Meanwhile, the investigation into the railway station tragedy was not at a standstill. Several suspects were arrested, and the former Minister of Urban Development, Vesić, who had resigned, turned himself in to the police. However, he soon declared a dry hunger strike while in detention and was subsequently hospitalised.

On January 13, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić accused local NGOs—including Istinomer, CINS, KRIK, BIRN, and CRTA—of working for Western intelligence services, spreading false information, and restricting freedom of speech. Several representatives of foreign organisations were expelled from the country as threats to national security.

The situation has worsened further with the outgoing Biden administration announcing unprecedented sanctions against Serbia, which, if implemented, would deal a severe blow to the country's economy. To make matters worse, by mid-January, Serbia faced a critical gas supply situation. However, despite these challenges, Azerbaijan fulfilled its gas supply commitments in full. “Endless thanks to Azerbaijan and the President of Azerbaijan, whom I am looking forward to welcoming in Belgrade soon,” said Aleksandar Vučić.

Stained hands

Meanwhile, protests continued, with the red hand symbol—representing "bloody hands"—becoming their defining emblem. However, judging by the smiling faces of young demonstrators at marches and rallies, genuine mourning for the victims of the Novi Sad tragedy seemed to fade into the background. Instead, student demonstrations increasingly resembled a winter carnival, a happening, or an act of civil disobedience.

Reports suggest that some educational institutions actively encouraged students to join the protests. Beyond university students, schoolchildren also began taking part. Soon, workers from various industries, including the major energy company Elektroprivreda, joined the demonstrations. Unlike student rallies filled with whistling and chanting protesters skipping classes, the threat of a general strike posed a far more serious challenge for the authorities. Meanwhile, the number of demonstrators has reached record levels.

The protests have garnered support from several prominent figures. It comes as no surprise that among them are tennis player Novak Djokovic and actor Miloš Biković. But also joining the movement was legendary director Emir Kusturica, who generally condemns Western interference in the affairs of his homeland. The escalation of the protests takes place against the backdrop of the government fulfilling nearly all of the protesters' demands. The authorities had earlier provided documentation regarding the construction of the ill-fated concrete canopy at the railway station (although protesters claim it was not complete), and those responsible for the tragic incident were held accountable. The government even allocated additional funds for education.

However, feeling empowered, the protesters have shifted to more radical actions—such as road blockades. South of Belgrade, they have blocked the major Autokomanda intersection, and barricades have also been set up at the entrance to Novi Sad. On January 25, in Novi Sad, the protesters—no longer just students, but now tough men—formed a human chain to prevent the police from clearing the debris. Opposition figures claim that the police are fragmented into various clans, with no unity, and that Vučić cannot trust the security forces as a whole.

On the same day, a convoy of tractors came to the aid of the protesters in Novi Sad. Additionally, farmers' associations, using heavy machinery, blocked the Ibarska highway near Kraljevo. In many areas, hot meals were provided free of charge to those participating in the protests. The media gleefully broadcast images of students roasting and enjoying suckling pigs at the Autokomanda blockade.

All so-called "colour revolutions" follow a certain genre pattern. After the initial wave of street activity and media attention, there must always be a new act that escalates the level of confrontation. However, the Serbian police have shown maximum restraint. Yet, on the night of January 27-28, a group of students once again went to put up flyers and spray-paint slogans near the headquarters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in Novi Sad. As reported by media sympathetic to the protests, two security guards emerged from the building and allegedly "attacked" the protesters. The students fled.

Later, the same two security guards, along with two other young men, allegedly "attacked" a group of activists at 3 a.m. who were painting slogans near the Petefi Sandor school using spray cans and stencils. One injured participant was taken to the hospital, while the other activists managed to flee. No photos or videos that clarify the details of the incident have been provided. Nevertheless, pro-protest media outlets immediately flooded with headlines about "Vučić's killers" and "regime terrorism."

The students issued a statement: "We strongly condemn this attack and are shocked by the state of our society in which such a situation is even possible."

On January 28, a large student rally gathered in front of the SNS office in Novi Sad. The building’s walls were completely covered in red paint, and traffic was blocked. Bikers and farmers joined the protest.

Meanwhile, "independent" media outlets have remained silent about the terror faced by students who wish to attend school for educational purposes rather than participate in protests, as well as the insults and humiliations directed at their parents. Following the protesters' demands, the police arrested four individuals involved in the confrontation with the students, and other suspects in the use of violence against protesters are being sought. The injured student will soon be discharged for home treatment. But this did not stop the momentum of the protests, which gained a new impetus.

On the morning of January 28, Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević announced his resignation. "This has been completely fabricated from abroad, cunningly planned... It's a disaster for the entire society," he declared. In effect, his entire cabinet, which was a multi-party and relatively balanced one, resigned as well. Novi Sad Mayor Milan Durić also stepped down from his post.

It seems that the concessions made by the government are only fueling the opposition's appetite. Now, their target has shifted to the president himself. "Vučić, your resignation won't save you! You will beg to be imprisoned!" declared the leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia, Srđan Milivojević. A group of opposition MPs from the NDA faction, which includes both "Democrats" and monarchists, attempted to block the work of the parliamentary session, leading to another altercation in the National Assembly. A large black banner with the words "Serbia has risen to destroy the regime!" was also unfurled. Another opposition party, the conservative "Serbian Democratic Alliance," has stated that the resignation of the prime minister is a late and insufficient measure. According to them, Vučić himself must step down "as the root of the problem." This should be followed by "serious social and political reforms in our society, culminating in new and truly democratic elections at all levels."

Bans and cancellations in the name of “freedom”?

As of today, nearly all of the protesters' demands, including the prime minister’s resignation, have been met, but it seems that the situation is far from over. For example, the green NGO coalition Environmental Uprising has submitted a petition to the Serbian Constitutional Court, demanding a ban on Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party.

On 29 January, Aleksandar Vučić announced that he would try to form a new government within the next 10 days. If unsuccessful, early parliamentary elections could take place in April. However, it can be assumed that even new elections are unlikely to calm the situation.

What’s particularly noteworthy about the current protests is that opposition parties, which have already grown tiresome even for some of their supporters, are not at the forefront. This campaign is primarily the work of pro-Western NGOs. Much like in Belarus in 2020, the Western backers have placed their bets on Serbia’s "third sector." There are numerous NGOs in Serbia, catering to all tastes, and a network of "independent" pro-Western media outlets has been established on a grant basis. These media are quite popular among the country’s youth, for whom many programs have been launched by Western funds, including “Leadership Academies.”

Besides the large NGOs mentioned by Vučić in the context of working with Western intelligence agencies, a significant player in the current events is the organization ProGlas.

The NGOs, which have now declared a “crusade against corruption” in Serbia, are quite specific in nature. To some extent, due to their authoritarianism, practical insularity, elitism, opacity, and sectarianism, they could outdo many political parties. Most importantly, their leaders—essentially an NGO nomenclature—are fully funded and entirely dependent on Western funds. Can this be called corruption? Or "honest work" for foreign masters? Such funds often turn out to be branches or front organizations of Western intelligence agencies, as Aleksandar Vučić has pointed out.

A number of experts suggest that, rather than morally outdated opposition politicians, it will be the NGOs who take on the task of forming a transitional government. In fact, the leaders of the "third sector" could soon seize the institutions of the Serbian state. It is likely that a plan for such an institutional restructuring of Serbia's political and legal system has already been outlined, which will pave the way for the continued dominance of certain pro-Western political forces.

"Bloody hands" vs. “steel friendship”

Corruption and many other problems indeed exist in Serbian society today. However, the main goal of those organizing the current government overthrow is not the honest fight against these negative phenomena. So, what lies behind the fierce attacks on President Vučić? Many believe it is due to his "pro-Russian" stance. However, the President of Serbia does not take an unequivocal position supporting Russia on all matters. Aleksandar Vučić is also a staunch supporter of Donald Trump. Belgrade has not abandoned its hopes of EU integration either. What Vučić is doing, though, is pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy, building international relations based on the national interests of Serbia. But this is the very sin that globalists in the modern West cannot forgive.

It seems that, above all, the Serbian president and government are being punished for the rapidly developing relations between their country and China. During his last visit to Europe in May 2024, Chinese leader Xi Jinping included Serbia as one of three countries on his itinerary. Serbia has long been referred to as a "showcase," demonstrating all the tangible benefits of cooperation with China. The Chinese side, with its characteristic imagery, calls the relationship between the two countries a "steel friendship."

Out of the 32 billion euros invested by China in Southeast Europe between 2013 and 2022, 18.7 billion euros were directed to Serbia. This investment has fueled higher economic growth in Serbia compared to the average for Europe. Cooperation with China spans automotive and railway infrastructure, interchanges and bridges, mining and manufacturing industries, the construction sector, automobile parts production, and the financial sector. There are 3,346 Chinese companies registered in Serbia. Moreover, as of July 1, 2024, the Free Trade Agreement between Serbia and China came into effect. Xi Jinping also expressed China’s readiness to be a key partner in preparing for EXPO 2027 in Belgrade.

This has led to a sharp decline in Serbia’s dependence on the West in recent years. From a traditional imperialist viewpoint, this is completely unacceptable...