Can Trump's unpredictability reshape global alliances?

In an article published by BBC, Donald Trump's potential return to the White House is set to reshape US foreign policy, with far-reaching implications for international relations, security, and trade.

Donald Trump's potential return to the White House promises to significantly alter US foreign policy, with radical changes likely on multiple fronts amid global instability and conflict. Throughout his campaign, Trump made sweeping policy promises, often vague on specifics, centered around his principles of non-interventionism and trade protectionism, encapsulated in his "America First" slogan.

Trump’s victory signals a potential upheaval in Washington’s foreign policy approach, coming at a time of multiple crises around the world. We can begin to understand his likely strategies by examining both his campaign rhetoric and his previous record in office from 2017 to 2021. During his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed that he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine "in a day."

When pressed on how he would achieve this, he suggested he could broker a deal but did not provide further details. A research paper written by two of Trump's former national security chiefs in May suggested that the US should continue supplying weapons to Ukraine, but make this support contingent on Ukraine engaging in peace talks with Russia. It’s likely that Trump would seek to revive the policies from his previous administration, which included withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, intensifying sanctions on Iran, and ordering the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s top military commander.

Trump’s administration also enacted strong pro-Israel policies, including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy there from Tel Aviv. This move was especially popular with Trump’s evangelical Christian base, a crucial part of the Republican voting bloc. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump as the “best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.”

However, critics argue that Trump’s policies destabilized the region. The Palestinians, in particular, boycotted the Trump administration after the US abandoned their claim to Jerusalem, which is central to their national and religious identity. Their position was further weakened when Trump brokered the “Abraham Accords,” normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim nations without requiring Israel to accept a future Palestinian state, traditionally a key condition for such agreements. In exchange, the involved nations were granted access to advanced US weaponry. 

By Naila Huseynova