Georgia faces growing threat of Armenianization in occupied Abkhazia Ethnic tensions escalate amid “presidential vote”

Early elections for the so-called "president" of the separatist region of Abkhazia could lead to a new phase of political and ethnic confrontation on the occupied Georgian territory. In the first round, the "pro-Kremlin" candidate, Badra Gunba, failed to secure power, despite the involvement of Sergey Kiriyenko, Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration, in his PR campaign and the organization of a "test flight" to the Sukhum airport, with the promise to open air traffic with Russia in May of this year. Gunba's first-place finish with 46% of the vote was largely due to the Armenian community of Abkhazia. The second place was taken by opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba (37% of the vote), who was predominantly supported by ethnic Abkhaz people.

The second round of the so-called "presidential elections" in Abkhazia will take place on March 1, 2025. However, the results of the first round already offer insights into both the actual population size of the separatist region (which is clearly overstated by separatist statistics) and the real ethnic composition. There are more Armenians in Abkhazia than ethnic Abkhaz, despite what the "official" separatist statistics suggest.

In his native Gudauta district, Badra Gunba received a very small percentage of the vote, which is unusual for Abkhazia, where it is customary to support "fellow countrymen" (meaning the number of votes for him from non-Gudauta Abkhaz people was even smaller). However, Armenian villages in other districts overwhelmingly supported Gunba. According to social media reports, of the 25,000 Armenian voters in Abkhazia, more than 24,000 cast their votes for Badra Gunba. Gudauta district still has relatively few Armenians, which explains Gunba's low result in this district, where Adgur Ardzinba won the first round.

After the first round of voting on February 15, opposition Abkhazian social media pointed out that nearly the entire Armenian population had voted for Badra Gunba. It is almost certain that in the second round, the Armenian community will organize additional "voter mobilization" among their ethnicity, and may even resort to ballot stuffing and falsifications to help their candidate win the "presidency" of separatist Abkhazia. Badra Gunba is now openly referred to as the "Armenian candidate."

The interest of the Armenian lobby in Abkhazia is understandable. After the collapse of the separatist "Artsakh," there are only two regions outside the Republic of Armenia where Armenians form a majority, and both are located in Georgian territory. The first is the highland Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti (where separatist sentiments are also strong), and the second is the resort separatist region of Abkhazia. Moreover, in terms of natural and climatic conditions, Abkhazia is much more attractive for Armenians—who have always dreamed of having their own state with access to the sea—than both the Republic of Armenia (where villages and provincial towns are rapidly depopulating) and the now-forgotten "Artsakh"  that has faded into oblivion in the place of Azerbaijani Karabakh. 

It is worth noting that even during the occupation of Karabakh, Armenians were leaving the region. Despite all its efforts, Armenia was unable to bring large numbers of Armenians from the diaspora to settle in the occupied Azerbaijani towns and villages, managing only to establish small settlements of Syrians and Lebanese Armenians. On the other hand, Armenians are adamant about not leaving Abkhazia. Many of their compatriots, including those from "Artsakh," are eager to settle there.

Many Abkhaz have begun to realize that the separatism "following the Karabakh scenario" and the fratricidal war with the Georgian people in the early 1990s were not instigated by the Armenian lobby out of love for the so-called "independent Abkhazia." Instead, it was orchestrated to seize Abkhaz land and turn Abkhazia into a "seaside Armenia." In the context of the extinction of the Abkhaz ethnicity and the prospect of mass settlement by new waves of Armenian migrants to Abkhazia, such a scenario is becoming quite realistic. Particularly with the potential implementation of the "investment agreement" with Russia and the law on "apartments" (which was the cause of last year's Abkhaz protests), these prospects seem almost inevitable.

It is no coincidence that recently, among the Abkhaz themselves, there has been a growing discussion on social media about the future of reconciliation with Georgia, the possibility of a confederation, and living in a single state. However, Abkhaz Armenians categorically oppose this idea, betting on "unity with Russia," and accuse anyone who mentions reconciliation with Georgia of "betrayal."

During the current "election campaign," Armenian lobby-controlled media launched an unprecedented campaign accusing Abkhaz opposition members of working "for Türkiye and Georgia" and being "anti-Armenian." On the other hand, the fact that the Armenian community intends to make Abkhazia "completely its own" through a Kremlin-backed "president" became so obvious to most Abkhaz that it led to increased tension between the two ethnic groups.

The growing hostility of the Abkhaz people toward the Armenian community during these elections has led to incidents. In simple terms, Abkhaz are increasingly using any conflict as an opportunity to "express their gratitude" toward Armenians, regardless of the political views of the ethnic Armenians involved. For example, in Gagra, 15 people beat Samvel Dashyan, a former employee of the separatist Ministry of Internal Affairs and supporter of opposition candidate Adgur Ardzinba. This suggests that even being "in the opposition camp" is no longer a guarantee of "immunity" for ethnic Armenians in Abkhazia. The situation is likely to only worsen.

The Armenians of Abkhazia are now demanding "protection" and "security guarantees." This demand was sparked by the appearance on social media of an audio recording featuring opposition member Enver Bganba (the nephew of the current acting separatist "president" Valery Bganba) and another opposition representative, Yuri Vanaba. In the recording, Enver Bganba expresses outrage that the Armenian villages voted for Gunba and uses profane language, making threats against the Abkhaz Armenians: "We need to work with them differently, they should be scared." The conversation suggests that it is time to "put Armenians in their place."

The head of the Armenian community in Abkhazia, Alik Minosyan, issued an open statement to the separatist leadership following the spread of the aforementioned conversation on social media. In his statement, he demands guarantees for the protection of the Armenian population during the elections for the separatist "president." Minosyan calls for an investigation and the filing of criminal charges against those responsible for inciting inter-ethnic discord against ethnic Armenians:

"Audio recordings are circulating on the Internet in which citizens Bganba E.Z. and Vanaba Y. call for the persecution of Armenian citizens of Abkhazia for their political choice. These materials are direct calls for violence and undermine inter-ethnic unity in the Republic of Abkhazia. Since the start of the election campaign, pressure has been exerted on the leaders of several villages inhabited by Armenian nationals, and threats have been made demanding support for specific forces. The Armenian community of the Republic of Abkhazia has refrained from making public statements, adhering to the principle of non-interference in the electoral process. However, the situation, in which open calls for violence and the restriction of constitutional rights are heard, requires an immediate and firm response. The Armenian community of the Republic of Abkhazia acts in the interests of the entire country. We call for the implementation of constitutional principles to protect the rights of every citizen, regardless of their national origin.

On behalf of all citizens of Abkhazia concerned about the situation, we demand:

1. Immediate verification of the authenticity of the circulated audio recordings.

2. If the authenticity is confirmed, a strict legal assessment of the statements made by Bganba E.Z. and Vanaba Y., the initiation of appropriate criminal cases, and the holding of those responsible accountable.

3. Guarantees for the safety of Armenian citizens and all those who face pressure or threats during the electoral process.

4. Comprehensive measures to prevent any agitation that incites discord and hostility based on national origin.

We require a written response to this appeal to be sent to the Armenian community of the Republic of Abkhazia, and also to be published in official state media as soon as possible.

Chairman of the Armenian Community of the Republic of Abkhazia, Minosyan A.A.”

Following the call to "guarantee the safety of Armenian citizens," it is likely that there will be a subsequent demand to "guarantee the safety" of Armenians in Abkhazia, but this time directed at the occupying power, Russia. This, in turn, could serve as a pretext not only for the annexation of Abkhazia but also for the implementation of a "special operation" involving terror against the Abkhaz population—something the Armenian lobby seems to be pushing for. Moreover, the potential upcoming ceasefire with Ukraine would likely free up Russian forces for such an operation.

Interestingly, Russian Investigative Committee Chairman Alexander Bastrykin responded quickly to the complaints of the Armenians of Abkhazia and ordered a probe into the threats and violations of their rights. The progress of the investigation has been placed under the personal supervision of the head of the agency. This is a clear sign that the Russian authorities are shifting toward making the "Armenization" of Abkhazia irreversible, to the detriment of the Abkhaz people’s interests.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, exclusively for Caliber.Az