Georgian autumn: Pre-election dynamics Expert insights on Caliber.Az

The ruling party of Georgia needs to achieve a convincing victory in the autumn parliamentary elections. This statement was made by the founder of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, speaking at an event dedicated to the start of the party's election campaign and the opening of a new central office.

"In the parliamentary elections of 26 October Georgia will doubtlessly defeat the forces that have been frantically trying to bring unrest to the country and drag the country into a war for the past four years.  The Georgian Dream will once again defeat the network of agents; the Party of Peace will defeat the Party of War," said the honorary chairman of the party.

Ivanishvili noted that for the collective National Movement and its patrons, this is the last chance to organize unrest in the country. "For the Georgian Dream, this is a decisive battle to finally consolidate peace in Georgia, to end the radicalism and polarization that is artificially imposed from outside, to maintain peace, stability, and economic progress, to protect national dignity and, as a result, to preserve Georgia’s European perspective," said Ivanishvili.

Additionally, Ivanishvili emphasized that to ensure the irreversible development of the republic, the National Movement must be held accountable to Georgian society and the law. "After the elections, they will have to answer for all the crimes they committed during their time in power," stated the Georgian entrepreneur.

Three months remain until the parliamentary elections in Georgia. Consultations between parties on unified lists are ongoing. The configuration of the main players is provided by the portal News Georgia. The ruling party Georgian Dream is running in alliance with People's Power and other satellites. Their number on the ballots is 41. Among the pro-Western opposition parties, the former ruling party United National Movement and the party Strategy Aghmashenebeli are running together under number 5. The opposition parties Akhali, Girchi – More Freedom, and Droa received number 4 on the ballots. The parties Lelo, For the People, and Freedom Square are listed under number 9.

The party of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, For Georgia, apparently is going to the elections alone. The Labor Party, led by Shalva Natelashvili, is also likely to participate in the elections independently, inspired by the victory of the Labor Party in the United Kingdom and believing that it can manage without the support of other parties. The pro-Russian conservative movements are running on the lists of the Alliance of Patriots. Their number on the ballot is 8.

The Central Election Commission is not yet able to specify the number of parties that will participate in the elections—the registration process is still ongoing.

Judging from today's perspective, how likely is it for the Georgian Dream to win the parliamentary elections and form the government again? It seems that the opposition parties in Georgia are once again not particularly showing a desire to unite and attempt a collective victory.

Renowned Georgian analysts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

According to Kakha Gogolashvili, political scientist and director of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS), known as the Rondeli Foundation, the Georgian Dream has decided to target the conservative segment of the population and utilize administrative resources in the form of anti-Western propaganda to attract as many Euroskeptic voters as possible, including those pro-Russian.

"However, the number of such voters is significantly smaller compared to those who desire a European future for the country. Thus, they decided to discredit the entire West and invented a myth about a so-called Global War Party, which controls America and Europe, trying to drag Georgia into a war with Russia. According to them, the entire West is itself a victim of this War Party, and therefore, it is necessary to temporarily distance ourselves from them," the director of the centre explains.

The authorities insist on conducting a fully independent policy, he says.

"But if Republicans aligned with Trump come to power in the US, it will be easy to restore relations with them and, consequently, with Europe. Overall, the message is that voting for the Georgian Dream will save the country from war. Once the threat subsides, after the end of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Georgia will continue its European path. The opposition parties are portrayed as lacking individuality and working for the Global War Party. Therefore, they will be punished after the elections. This is the logic of the Georgian Dream. However, it is unlikely that a policy built on myths will be successful," Gogolashvili believes.

Diplomat and analyst Mamuka Gamkrelidze notes that, for example, the party European Democrats of Georgia, which will participate in the elections under number 6, initially advocated for a unified list of all pro-Western opposition parties.

"Such a union might have guaranteed victory and a change of power in the country. Unfortunately, the opposition lacked enough pragmatism to overcome their own ambitions and petty infighting. At the moment, the opposition is fragmented, which gives a significant advantage to the ruling party. Although there is still enough time before the elections to consolidate into at least 3-4 major alliances," the expert observed.

In his opinion, the primary goal for the opposition should be a high voter turnout.

"The ruling party will always be able to consolidate its supporters with administrative resources, while the opposition will need to mobilize not only its supporters but also the undecided segment of society, which is quite high—at least 20 per cent," Gamkrelidze concluded.