IMF Chief warns Middle East conflict could drive inflation, slow global growth

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is likely to push prices higher and slow global economic growth.

Georgieva, in an interview with Reuters, said everything is pointing toward rising prices and slowing economic activity.

She noted that global oil supplies have fallen by 13%, affecting energy markets as well as other commodities, including fertilisers.

The IMF is set to release its updated global GDP forecast for 2026–2027 on April 14.

The fund had initially projected 3.3% growth in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, but these estimates are expected to be revised downward.

"Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth," Georgieva added.

She emphasised that even a rapid end to hostilities and a fairly rapid recovery will result in a "relatively small" downward revision of the growth forecast and an upward revision of its inflation forecast, while a prolonged war would have far more severe consequences.

"Even if the war is to stop today, there would be a lingering negative impact to the rest of the world,” she stressed.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov