Indian-Russian growing ties a source of concern Tightening alliance

On July 18, the third Meeting of the Working Group on Military Cooperation of the Indian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission on Military and Military-Technical Cooperation was held at Manekshaw Centre in Delhi. India, which heavily uses Russian defence equipment, discussed the issue of spare parts & maintenance with the visiting team amid the ongoing Ukraine war, it has been learnt. From Sukhoi fighter jets to tanks to the Navy, Russian-origin equipment is a key element of Indian armed forces.

India considers Russia a time-tested ally from the Cold War era, with key cooperation in defence, oil, nuclear energy and space exploration. But the partnership has become complicated as Moscow builds closer ties with India's main rival, China, in part because of the war against Ukraine.

With the war fully raging in Europe, many Western countries imposed harsh economic sanctions on Russia in an attempt to isolate it economically and politically, as well as cease dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

Nevertheless, India has so far avoided voting against Russia or criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has consistently advocated for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the crisis. Despite the challenges, India has strengthened its trade ties with Moscow and remains committed to enhancing defence cooperation.

Notably, India boosted the import of Russian fossil fuels and coal in the second quarter of 2022 as India’s hunger for coal keeps growing. India’s coal imports from Russia were 1.04 million tons, the highest level since January 2020. In September 2022, India said it planned to double imports of Russian coking coal, surpassing the 54 million tons imported in 2022-23. This surge can be attributed to lower prices, faster deliveries, and Indian companies' strategic decision to diversify their coal sources.

Energy supplies are not the root cause of India’s challenge. The nation is determined to press ahead with economic growth and will not limit its energy imports. When the U.S. pressed sanctions on Iranian energy, New Delhi complied because the U.S. actively worked with the Indians to ensure the shortfalls from Iranian imports were replaced. While sanctions were imposed on Russia, the U.S. quietly told India that Washington had no objections to it continuing to import Russian oil.

While the Moscow-Delhi energy partnership does not pose a significant threat to Western partners, the deepening defence ties between the two states may be used as a bargaining chip. Before the war in Ukraine, 60 per cent of India’s arms imports were from Russia. Moscow still leads, but its share has dropped to 45 per cent.

The nation had been looking to diversify military suppliers even before Russia's invasion. While Russian arms are often considered inexpensive, the life-cycle costs of repair, maintenance, logistics and spare parts can be high, making Russian weapons more expensive in the long term. In addition, Russian arms are increasingly viewed as being of lesser quality than arms available from Western suppliers.

Moreover, many argue that India’s military is heavily dependent on tanks, fighter jets and other equipment of Russian origin; it could not afford to isolate Moscow, particularly at a time when tensions with China are running high with both armies massed for a third winter along their disputed Himalayan border. Also, in August 2022, India sent a contingent to participate in Russia’s large-scale Vostok military exercises alongside China and several other countries.

Russia is poised to remain a significant arms supplier to India for a long time, and India is not about to give up on it as a supplier. Its multiple weapons deals with Russia were signed despite the risk of U.S. sanctions under the 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, designed to punish Russia for the 2014 annexation of Crimea and its undeclared war in eastern Ukraine.

In this vein, Moscow plays a weak hand well, but sustaining strong security ties with China and India will become more complex. The question is how China will react to Russian arms sales to India and what Russia will do if pressed by China to curtail them.

Simultaneously, Russian weaponry’s poor performance in Ukraine triggered debates in India, which questioned the quality of such weaponry. Also, many analysts recommended that the local government wane itself from Russian weaponry and rely on modern defence technology from the US, Germany, Japan and Israel.

Nevertheless, it is unlikely that India will cut off relations with Russia, as both states are bound within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and individual bilateral partnership that suits both interests amid the shifting geopolitical landscape.