Instability as leverage Armenia’s pivot towards regional peace 

Armenia’s domestic political struggle has seen two new developments in the past 24 hours. Officers from the Main Directorate for Combating Organised Crime of the Armenian Ministry of Internal Affairs detained Russian businessman and philanthropist of Armenian origin, Samvel Karapetyan, the president and founder of the Tashir Group of Companies. In addition, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a decree dismissing Armen Abazyan from his post as Director of the National Security Service.

At first glance, these two events seem to follow a simple logical sequence — against the backdrop of escalating domestic political strife, Pashinyan is purging agents of Russian influence. In the case of Karapetyan, this is clearly the case. But when it comes to Abazyan, the situation may not be so straightforward.

On one hand, he is a career intelligence officer, which makes it highly likely that he is linked both to the former ruling elites and to Moscow. On the other hand, loyalty in the world of espionage — whether to an oath or to a cause — is not always a fixed or universal principle. One only needs to recall how the KGB leadership took part in, if not outright initiated, the collapse of the USSR.

Moreover, Abazyan’s dismissal coincided with reports alleging that the Armenian authorities had been sharing confidential information with U.S. intelligence services regarding transit flights to Iran, as well as conducting espionage operations in the country’s south in the interest of the United States.

Yet even in this case, the Armenian Prime Minister’s actions follow a certain logic. Regardless of which camp Abazyan belongs to, Pashinyan is acting according to a strategy of eliminating potential sources of instability. If your opponent has grounds to launch accusations against you, it is better to distance yourself from the events or individuals who gave them that pretext.

What adds an extra layer of intrigue to the situation is that Pashinyan is taking these steps just ahead of his visit to Ankara. As previously reported, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is expected to visit Türkiye on June 20 at the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to the Speaker of Armenia’s National Assembly, Alen Simonyan, all regional issues will be discussed in Ankara. “I believe this visit is historic, because for the first time, an Armenian leader will be travelling to Turkey at such a level,” he said. Simonyan was unable to clarify whether the visit is official or working in nature, but emphasised that it is bilateral.

Indeed, it is hard to disagree with Simonyan — the visit can rightly be described as historic. This trip not only signals a fundamental shift in relations between the two countries, but also, apparently, marks a certain positive movement toward Armenian-Azerbaijani normalisation and the signing of a peace agreement.

In this context, the instability unfolding in Iran could play a constructive role in prompting Armenian society to recognise the urgent need to normalise relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The longer the war in Iran continues, the more isolated Armenians are likely to feel. After all, under such circumstances, Georgia remains their only viable outlet to the outside world. This is far from ideal — relying on a single corridor creates vulnerability, and Georgia’s deteriorating relations with the West undermine Armenia’s cherished sense of connection with Europe.

Paradoxically, the only actor truly capable of providing Armenians with that sense of geopolitical alignment with Europe is Türkiye.

The closed borders with Armenia’s Turkic neighbours may soon be felt more acutely than ever — like a shortage of oxygen. If Pashinyan genuinely wants peace, he must seize this moment.