International Energy Agency raises 2026 global oil supply forecast

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly raised its forecast for global oil supply in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared with its previous report, according to the agency's latest outlook.

As a result, global oil supply this year is now expected to decline by 3.7 million bpd to 102.6 million bpd, Caliber.Az reports, citing Russian media.

The IEA said that as oil transit in the Middle East recovers, global supply could rise by 7.5 million bpd in 2027 to reach 110.1 million bpd.

According to the agency, global oil supplies increased by 4.1 million bpd in June to 98.8 million bpd as Gulf countries began restoring production following the agreement between the United States and Iran. More than half of the increase came from OPEC+ members, the IEA noted.

The agency warned that risks to its supply outlook remain as negotiations over the management of the Strait of Hormuz continue.

The IEA added that oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz surged sharply at the end of June, with crude oil and condensate shipments rising to 13.2 million bpd, recovering to more than 70% of pre-conflict levels. The increase was driven by the release of accumulated inventories.

"The sharp escalation of military activity in early July led to supplies almost coming to a halt. Recovery will depend on the de-escalation of hostilities and improvements in security in the Strait of Hormuz, which would support the resumption of tanker traffic," the agency said.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov