Iran may join nuclear powers club in two weeks Foreign experts on Caliber.Az

The Pentagon said Iran has enough resources to create a nuclear device in less than two weeks. This is stated in the annual report of the US Department of Defense, “Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction.” “Iran is not assessed to be pursuing a nuclear weapons programme in the near future, but has the ability to produce enough fissile material to build a nuclear device in less than two weeks,” the Pentagon says. But overall, Iran is designated in the document as a “persistent threat.”

Let us recall that on June 1, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant commented on the level of the nuclear threat to his country from Iran with a statement that the Israeli military will fulfil its duty to protect the country if the situation forces them to do so. And on September 16, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) announced that Iranian authorities had revoked the accreditation of several agency inspectors whose task was to inspect nuclear facilities.

I wonder what the US Department of Defense’s calculations indicate? If Tehran has the ability to create nuclear weapons in such a short time, then why is it wasting time? After all, both Israel and the West believe that Iran has long been striving for precisely this goal. It turns out there is some kind of semantic inconsistency.

Well-known foreign experts shared their thoughts on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Executive Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (Kyiv) Igor Semivolos believes that there is no inconsistency here.

“Having an opportunity and taking advantage of it are two different things. Please note that the United States has not completely curtailed the negotiation process with Iran; it continues in one form or another. The bet is on the rational calculation of the Iranian authorities, where the main trump card remains the opportunity to exit the sanctions regime. Today this is impossible, but it is not a fact that this will not happen in the future,” says the expert.

According to him, in recent years Iran has managed to improve its geopolitical situation with the help of Russia and China. This is important for the Iranian leadership given their strategic culture - the need to find allies. It is for these reasons that they are now not ready to play all-in, because then these developments, figuratively speaking, will “go down the drain.”

“From the very beginning of the development of nuclear weapons, I think the Iranians viewed this process as part of a strategy of blackmail, the creation of alarming expectations and excessive exaggeration. In any case, they master the art of deception. In fact, they need completely obvious things - strengthening their influence in the Middle East, expanding their presence in countries with a Shiite population and maintaining their power within the country,” Semivolos says.

According to American analyst, former special adviser to the US Secretary of State Paul Goble, if he read the reports correctly, the US says Iran is close to receiving enough processed uranium to make a bomb in a few weeks.

 “It’s not the same as making a bomb because making it is difficult. But I could be wrong. I recognize that steps towards ensuring a sufficient supply of fissile materials are an important step, but they are not final,” the politician said.

For his part, Michael Borodkin, the Israeli researcher and journalist with a focus on Iran, pointed out that the Iranian authorities seek to be able to make nuclear weapons when the order is given.

“That is, Iran wants to have enough weapons-grade material, appropriate detonators and the necessary delivery systems for a nuclear charge, be it missiles or bombs. In other words, Iran wants to have a bomb in disassembled form, and if the country’s leadership gives the order to create a ready-to-use weapon, then this can be done as soon as possible - maybe within the mentioned two weeks,” the researcher says.

At the same time, Tehran understands that an already assembled bomb is the same red line that a country that considers itself a respected member of the world community should not cross, he believes.

“So instead of already building a nuclear warhead and threatening its enemies with it, Iran is playing a more subtle game and trying to convince everyone that it has these weapons and is ready to use them. And this game is going well so far. It is not without reason that Saudi Arabia, among the conditions for normalizing relations with Israel, also put forward a demand to provide it with nuclear technologies, albeit civilian ones. This means that the kingdom is already confident that a nuclear Iran is a reality, and we must look for ways to balance and reduce this threat.

So the statement by the US Department of Defense indicates that Iran is very close to its goal - to have all the capabilities, technologies and materials to freely make nuclear weapons when it is decided that such a step is advisable,” Borodkin concluded.